Is Soros 'gaming' the IEM Iowa Electronic Market? [your chance to make some DOUGH!]

mine ^ | 1 sep 2004 | mine

[Future Useless Eater]

Is Soros 'gaming' the IEM Iowa Electronic Market?

Conservatives in recent days have been hailing the Iowa Electronic Market [election stock market], since it acts very much like a real-time-poll.

It measures how much each side is willing to part with their own hard-earned cash to bet on their candidate.

But the flaw in the IEM, is that the daily GRAPH of CLOSING PRICES CAN be easily manipulated by rich-guys, by BUYING UP ALL the contracts just BEFORE midnight, and then covering your bets in the opposite direction AFTER midnight.

THAT apparently happened last night, and somewhere, there are democRATS laughing at the Conservative bloggers who like to report George Bush'es progress almost daily.

The most recent MIDNIGHT results look pretty bad.

But compare that to the AVERAGE selling prices and you will see it was just a SCAM, someone was GAMING the chart for political PROPAGANDA purposes!

I'm sure some of you clever Freepers can use this knowledge to make yourself some BIG DOUGH if this should happen again in upcoming midnight trades!

I show TWO dots per day, indicating the AVERAGE selling price, plus ONE EXTRA dot at the end showing the CURRENT selling price.

Note how the MIDNIGHT SCAM was so short lived!
(does anyone know if what they did is illegal?)

[Future Useless Eater]

*

[Just mythoughts]

Interesting! Maybe Hillry's been reading the Wall Street Journal again....

[VisualizeSmallerGovernment]

does anyone know if what they did is illegal?

Yes. McCain-Feingold is adamant about protecting the integrity of online gambling.

[CzarNicky]

Soros is now going completely insane he is making money for us!

[COEXERJ145]

We were discussing the market's moves last night.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1204463/posts

[dangus]

No, President George W. Bush made the largest screw-up in convention history when he appeared to announce that the war is unwinnable. That news will overshadow the entire convention, blowing the chance for a bounce to put us ahead. Folks, it just got a LOT tougher to win this race. Our guy just made Dukakis' death penalty quote look like the "city on a hill" speech.

[IMRight]

Billionaires can't "game" the IEM system. At least not more than any other guy willing to lose a buck.


The Iowa Elections markets limit total investment to $500 per user. So no amount of millions Soros may be willing to sacrifice can rig the system.

Now, anyone who's willing to lose a buck and sell a "Bush" contract for well below market value WILL record a sale. Obviously if I currently have to pay .55 for a Bush share and you offer it to me for .50, I'm going to buy it and make a quick profit. But any fool can do that if he's willing to throw a couple buck away. As you noted, it doesn't affect the overall numbers.

[COEXERJ145]

Oh please.

[hobbes1]

you're out of your mind. That is already a non issue.

[delapaz]

relax, here are the last prices showing a 8 point spread in favor of Bush. The graph shows the closing price as of yesterday. yesterdays average price for Bush was much higher. And since today's average price is higher, Bush's stock is not crashing.

Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04 0.455 0.463 0.460 0.453 0.500 0.464
REP04 0.542 0.546 0.546 0.540 0.548 0.542

[KJacob]

. Our guy just made Dukakis' death penalty quote look like the "city on a hill" speech.

Now I have heard everything. You don't tend to overreact do you?

[tpaine]

Wouldn't the $500 max betting limit on each account make it hard to manipulate the whole market?

[hobbes1]

then, Maybe, just maybe, those little rejects over at the DNC war room are throwing away a couple bucks. It is not feasible to otherwise expalin a net 8 cent move at closing time. Current prices are already back to normal

[mnehring]

I think someone, maybe an intrepid journalist who reads here and is interested in breaking big news, should look into George Soros' currency trading valuations on the dollar. Soros has a history of trying to influence elections around the world, and he makes mega $$s on currency speculation.
I bet some intrepid journalist will find that Soros actually is pushing Kerry up to speculate against the dollar. IE, Soros is doing what is worst for the US so he can make some money.

[hobbes1]

Not if you had 10 people in the same room with a budget.

[labard1]

The maximum contract position for any account is $500 in the Iowa Electronic Market. That's hardly in the George Soros league (not worth the time to open the account). Perhaps the Dim Underground with lots of little accounts could be doing something like this, but this is not a market involving material amounts of money.

The Intrade.com site is much more active (Irish betting site), and it shows almost a 59% probability of a Bush win.

[snooker]

Yes, Soros is gaming the system ... cheaper than TV ads which aren't working anymore.

[counterpunch]

I don't think it was nearly as bad as some may think. It did make me cringe for sure, though. But for one thing, This is not a perceived weakness of Bush, so the damage should be minimal and short-lived, if at all.

Secondly, I think it could and should be spun as him saying that whether or not it is winnable depends primarily on whether America stays the course and reelects him, or surrenders and elects Kerry.



 
 
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[skaterboy]

It was funny on the other thread and it's even more funny now