Posted on 08/28/2004 1:02:05 AM PDT by ambrose
Posted on Sat, Aug. 28, 2004
Poll: Many Democrats in Florida may vote for Bush
By Bill Cotterell
DEMOCRAT POLITICAL EDITOR
A new survey of Democrats and Republicans shows how polarized the parties are in Florida and has some potentially troubling implications for Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry.
The poll of 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans, released Friday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., showed predictably partisan breakdowns on issues and unity behind Kerry and President Bush within their own parties.
But the poll found 11 percent of Democrats willing to vote for Bush on Nov. 2, compared to just 5 percent of Republicans who said they would cross over for Kerry.
And while only 18 percent of Democrats consider themselves conservative, more than one-third of conservative Democrats said they will vote for Bush.
"I think we're seeing brand loyalty that largely disregards the product," Florida State University political science professor Jeffrey Mondak said of the twin surveys. "The strong partisan divide seems to suggest that people are substituting party identity for thinking on issues independently."
The poll was conducted for several broadcasters and newspapers, including the Tallahassee Democrat. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.
Matthew Miller, a spokesman for Kerry's state campaign, noted that Mason-Dixon surveyed only Democrats and Republicans - not independents or members of minor parties - because the main purpose of the poll was to handicap next Tuesday's U.S. Senate primaries. Only Democrats and Republicans can vote in the Senate primaries, but all registered voters can cast ballots on Nov. 2.
"This is going to be a close election," said Miller, "but we feel good about our chances because we are the only campaign talking about the issues that matter to voters - bringing down the cost of health care, strengthening the economy and restoring America's position in the world."
Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon in Florida, said likely primary voters are as evenly divided as the whole state was in 2000. That's when Bush carried Florida by only 537 votes, an outcome preceded by 36 days of court fights and street demonstrations.
Coker said voter turnout will decide who gets Florida's 27 electoral votes. Both sides are advertising heavily and campaigning often in Florida to attract undecided party members and independents.
An open U.S. Senate race, a few congressional contests and public votes on some controversial constitutional amendments are likely to increase voter turnout. Head-to-head polls have consistently shown Florida to be one of the battleground states for Bush and Kerry.
Democrats in the survey backed Kerry by 82 percent. Bush had 87 percent support among his own party's likely primary voters.
Bush's approval rating also broke down along party lines - 85 percent approval among Republicans, 75 percent disapproval among Democrats - and party members were similarly split on the economy. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans said the economy is improving while 76 percent of Democrats said it's not.
Seventy-nine percent of likely Republican voters backed Bush on the Iraq war, 12 percent said it was a mistake to invade, and 83 percent felt the administration is making progress in fighting terrorism.
By contrast, 76 percent of Democrats felt invading Iraq was a mistake. Only 25 percent thought the war on terror is making gains while 59 percent said it isn't.
Mondak, the LeRoy Collins professor of political science at FSU, studies voter behavior and voting trends. He said "there's a negligible difference" between the Bush and Kerry positions on the Iraq war, yet Democrats and Republicans showed they will "follow the leader" despite disagreement on issues.
"The same Republicans who blasted Bill Clinton in 1992 for not serving in Vietnam now think it's more honorable for George Bush not to have gone," Mondak said. "And to Democrats, it seems that the greatest virtue John Kerry possesses is that he is not George Bush."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contact political editor Bill Cotterell at (850) 671-6545 or bcotterell@tallahassee.com.
..
The media sure is creating the basis of its 'hedging' strategy. If somehow Dubya wings 350-400 EVs (a REAL long shot but increasingly becoming possible) they will need to explain away their montsh and months of 'statistical tie' talk.
The Democratic Party in South Florida is heavily Jewish. I would like to think that some of my parent's neighbors in Boca will pull the lever in Bush this year, but I'm not holding my breath. It would be interesting to see where these "Bush Democrats are concentrated.
Sure, flying in the Guard is the same as running off to Europe to escape the draft. I think not. The stupid things some "experts" say just amazes me, but then, it really is just their underlying partisanship asserting itself.
I am sure Zel's endorsement of the President and his speech this week will go far with Southern Democrats in supporting our President. I expect Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana and perhaps Missouri will become out of reach for even the most optimistic of Kerry's aspirations after Zel's speech.
A most interesting poll.
GOOD post.
I've never seen the media explain anything. Last I heard, Passion of The Christ was going to cause rioting in the streets, one sandstorm in Iraq was going to destroy our military, we would run out of natural resources by 1980, and the impending Ice Age was going to freeze everyone north of Acapulco.
Hahah very true! They are seldom caught admitting they are wrong, but despite their bad track record, they have great self esteem, we must grant them that! ;-)
My wife is a conservative Democrat. She will be voting for Bush because she does not trust Kerry to carry out the war against terrorism.
<< Poll: Many "DemocRATS" in Florida may vote for [President] Bush >>
And in Nooyeark, too?
According to an article in the Sunday Times-0ctober 25, 1992, A Yank at Oxford, Bill Clinton's claim that he had never received an induction notice was a lie. In fact, he had received two induction notices and set out to beat the draft by calling Senator William Fulbright's Office in Arkansas( Clinton had interned for Fulbright. Clinton evidently sought the application of political pressure from an Arkansas Senator on an Arkansas Draft Board to avoid induction.
President Bush flew Airplanes in his National Guard training and did far more than Clinton ever did. Flying and Training in airplanes is not a piece of cake by any means.
Already happened... Santa gave an interview to CNN and said that the last 20 years has been the coldest ever... ;-) /humor
Stay on-topic, please. There is a much more appropriate thread for you to post this on. Thanks.
I know that Reagan attracted many Democratic voters (the Reagan Democrats). Does anyone have any numbers on how many crossover Democratic votes he attracted?
The same liberals who said that '92 and 96 weren't the time to refight think 2004 (while the nation is in a new, tough war) is a good time to refight Vietnam. Who are the hypocrites? THE LEFT!!!!
The fact that an ANG fighter pilot was not going to be sent to Vietnam was entirely unknowable when Mr. Bush assumed that role.
Besides which, there is an operational casualty rate during pilot training. It was not a given that Mr. Bush would not be one of the casualties.
"The same Republicans who blasted Bill Clinton in 1992 for not serving in Vietnam now think it's more honorable for George Bush not to have gone," Mondak said.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN klintoon and President Bush, is that President Bush SERVED HIS COUNTRY HONORABLY... klintoon was SERVICED by (some) of HIS country!
LLS
If only 25% say that we've made gains, then the rest are not being intellectually honest, imo.
Maybe I missed it, but why does it leave out John Kerry's approval ratings among Democrats? It says who backs him, but not who likes him. Yet they point out both numbers for President Bush.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.