Posted on 08/16/2004 11:08:09 AM PDT by tbpiper
During Hurricane Charley, the local authorities throughout Florida performed superbly and courageously, and every resident of the state should be grateful.
However, the actions of the National Hurricane Center need to be questioned and scrutinized. Its predictions and forecasts were, at best, wildly inaccurate. At worst, the forecasters of the National Hurricane Center may have been criminally incompetent.
We have all heard that no one can predict what a hurricane will do. If predictions cannot be relied upon, then why issue them? Why did they issue forecasts that Tampa Bay would be struck, thereby causing millions of people outside the Tampa Bay area to assume they were safe, when in fact they were in great danger?
Once the dust settles and we begin to reconstruct what went wrong, it should become clear that the National Hurricane Center displayed an incompetence so profound that the resignations of the director and staff of the center should be called for. Perhaps we can find capable and dependable meteorologists and scientists to do the job rather than the staff we have now, which apparently can only mimic what the computer models say.
The intelligence agencies of this nation are undergoing a complete overhaul since 9/11. Hurricane Charley will be the 9/11 for the National Weather Service in general and the National Hurricane Center in particular.
TOM WILKINSON, Valrico
I was watching the water vapor sat. photos and the jet stream flow. I thought it was going go farther east than the predictions, but I could not guess what the forward speed was going to be. The quantum leap from a minimal Cat 2 to a medium Cat 4 caught everybody by surprise. Bottom line was, at our house in east Hillsborough (almost Polk) County, we stayed buttoned up until it was absolutely certain Charley would miss us. Even at that we had tonado warnings until Friday night.
What kind of drugs are these people taking.
Argggghhh !!!! I suggest Florida institute an IQ test to be allowed to move to or continue to reside in the state. Deport those who don't meet minimum criteria.
PROPHESY connotes inspired or mystic knowledge of the future especially as the fulfilling of divine threats or promises .
I don't know why the surprise. It was obvious to me looking at the radar Thursday night the thing was going further south than predicted. The trough just was pushing it a bit further south.
I disagree with this point, I think the NHC dropped the ball slightly here...
The water Charley crossed over was just about the warmest in the entire Atlantic system. Explosive development should have been expected, especially considering what happened to the storm right before hitting Cuba.
Donna didn't get above Cat 3. Andrew balloned up to a Cat 5 but hung of the coast a little while building up steam. Charley started picking up forward speed, spending less time of the water. It did a number of unexpected things.
We ought not politicize this hurricane.
Not only that, but just before it made landfall, it took a little "jog" BACK to the left........so who knew?
Everybody should have been prepared.
And from the looks of the death toll, almost everybody was.
You will note on the image above, Charley moved directly over the warmest water it could find.
Donna was later in the year, the water had already begun to cool off. Andrew was much easier to forecast, the steering winds were pusing it west for days. Charley was moving quickly, but had a very strong low level cirulation that was unaffected by Cuba. As soon as it was back over water it began intensifying and did not stop till it hit FL. Wind shear was minimal and most things were in his favor when it came to strengthening. The fact that NHC kept it a Cat 2 at 11am Friday and upgraded it just 2 hours later to a strong Cat 4 was slightly misleading to the layman watching things IMO.
Well .. predicting where those kinds of storms will go is so difficult .. It amazes me they get as close as they do. A prediction is just an educated guess.
People were told to leave .. some of them didn't .. in my book a person has no right to be upset when the storm hits them.
The key things to remember are that the hurricane warning was for the entire west coast and the hurricane was at least a Cat 2. That is sufficient information for anybody, particularly in a mobile home, the get the hell out of the way. Whith Charley going as fast as it was, a 2 hour warning on the Cat 4 status is not much use.
I definately agree that people under warnings should have gotten out of the area, no question about that. The stories being told about storm surge alone should have made people high-tale it to higher ground. That said, the public does not fear a category 2 storm (especially in the wake of beasts like Andrew). NHC predicted a land falling category 3 all along and people should have realized it would happen. My main beef was with holding off on raising the category at 11am. 2 to 4 hours is not a lot of time, but several of those who died may have decided it was time to leave if they knew exactly what was occurring.
I'd blame the media more than anything, they grabbed onto the Tampa hit and ran with it for a full 24 hours prior to landfall. That was irresponsible of them IMO.
Oh, I know that one... it's always 2 to 5 blocks north of my house.
I'd be glad to respond to this guy, just as soon as he goes out to a golf driving range and hits a quarter dead on at 250 yards.
Darwin award winner.
what asshat wrote that?
lol no kidding
I was gonna call this guy a maroon, but there are so many FReepers already on this thread doing a more than adequate job so I think I'll just add a "sheesh".
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