Posted on 08/16/2004 11:08:09 AM PDT by tbpiper
During Hurricane Charley, the local authorities throughout Florida performed superbly and courageously, and every resident of the state should be grateful.
However, the actions of the National Hurricane Center need to be questioned and scrutinized. Its predictions and forecasts were, at best, wildly inaccurate. At worst, the forecasters of the National Hurricane Center may have been criminally incompetent.
We have all heard that no one can predict what a hurricane will do. If predictions cannot be relied upon, then why issue them? Why did they issue forecasts that Tampa Bay would be struck, thereby causing millions of people outside the Tampa Bay area to assume they were safe, when in fact they were in great danger?
Once the dust settles and we begin to reconstruct what went wrong, it should become clear that the National Hurricane Center displayed an incompetence so profound that the resignations of the director and staff of the center should be called for. Perhaps we can find capable and dependable meteorologists and scientists to do the job rather than the staff we have now, which apparently can only mimic what the computer models say.
The intelligence agencies of this nation are undergoing a complete overhaul since 9/11. Hurricane Charley will be the 9/11 for the National Weather Service in general and the National Hurricane Center in particular.
TOM WILKINSON, Valrico
On the contrary - his qualifications for cretin-ship are exemplary.
No one can predict a hurricane to the exact GPS coordinate. That Hurricane blew up my butt, the NHC did a great job and so did our local Weather Stations. Between the NHC and the Local Waether News, we were prepared.
Someone is always looking for an issue
I hate when people b%tch about inaccuracies of weather forecasts. Considering what meteorologists do (predict the future, essentially) they do a pretty damn good job most of the time.
The hurricane warning was for the whole west coast of Florida. That's essentially the 'margin of error' for predicting the path. They make it that broad because they know these storms can do some really strange things.
This guy has proved to the entire community that he's an fool. The NHC predicited the storm would strike along the west coast of FL, hence the HURRICANE WARNING from Key West up to Appalachicola Bay.
~/;o)
Tell Mr. Wilkinson he has free access to all the Hurricane Charley archives here...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/refresh/CHARLEY+shtml/151432.shtml?
...to research exactly where and when the TPC spoke of Tampa being the exact place for a Charley landfall.
Jeb actually made an announcement that said 'if you haven't evacuated we're not coming to get you'. Of course, some have complained about that.
If people don't get out of the way when a hurricane warning is issued, then they have their own self to blame.
It would appear that the earlier forecasts were correct.
This is actually a good object lesson of the folly of waiting for perfect information, be it intel or weather forecasts. By the time it was clear where Charley was headed, it was too late to evacuate for those who did not heed initial evacuation orders. And if we are to wait for perfect intel regarding developing threats and rogue regimes, perfect intel basically amounts to ... having the attack happen. But this guy doesn't get it:
The intelligence agencies of this nation are undergoing a complete overhaul since 9/11. Hurricane Charley will be the 9/11 for the National Weather Service in general and the National Hurricane Center in particular.
Yeah, he wants a risk-free world AND perfect forewarning. And also wants to make sure that the feds keep paying for midnight basketball as well.
As I read a few posts just before the storm hit land, there was some surprise expressed that the storm suddenly picked up intensity and changed direction. It seems like most people were doing their own predicting and ignoring the weather warnings at least partially.
The day after the hurricane, Shep of FOX was talking about this. Evidently, some local weather monitors had pegged the storm's track correctly, and the national weather group wouldn't buy it.
Looks like the trial lawyers will have a windfall.
Dumb fool.
He does realize that hurricanes are HUGE and even a SMALL deviation in a path can make a big difference in where it ends up? He does realize that the trough moving down or staying back north even slightly can have a major impact?
Oh....wait, no he doesn't. He is just talking out of his old geezer butt.
You must have a bad meteorologist.
Very rarely am I suprised by a forecast being wrong and myself going outside to rain when it was supposed to be sunny.
I usually just look at the sky and I can tell the current weather and what will happen over the next few hours - more accurate than most weather casters.
Indeed. Especially since hurricane warnings were up for the area that was hit the hardest.
I can't help Tom if all he looks at is ground zero and thinks everybody else will get off without a scratch.
At the risk of being called names, the guy does have a point. The forecasters don't make it clear enough that they usually only have a foggy idea of what will happen. Sure they put up those cones of expected direction and wind speed that look so accurate and precise, but those can often mislead people rather than enlighten.
I remember when Fran was coming and they kept telling us that they thought it would go along the coast as a Cat2, but at the last hour it strengthened and headed for Raleigh. Why tell an opinion when the truth is you have no clue?
Additionally, with Charley, they kept saying that it would go inland and track the Atlantic coast inland, but anyone with any sense could see that it was probably going to go across the coast and reform as a hurricane before landing again.
The pronouncements of meteorologists are seen as learned knowledge, when it should be presented as just a wild guess.
Wow, what a terribly written story. This person has obviously done no homework, it's becoming oh so typical of the liberal media these days...
First, the NHC's average error:
NHC Average Track Errors, 1993-2002:
12 hours: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles)
24 hours: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles)
36 hours: 116 nautical miles (134 statute miles)
48 hours: 150 nautical miles (173 statute miles)
NHC Average Intensity Errors, 1993-2002:
12 hours: 6 knots (7 mph)
24 hours: 10 knots (12 mph)
36 hours: 13 knots (15 mph)
48 hours: 15 knots (17 mph)
Now, error on this storm:
24 hour forecast position near landfall:
The 5 pm Thursday advisory gave Charley a 2 pm Friday forecast of 26.5N 83.0W. The actual reported was 26.1N 82.4W. So the 21 hour position forecast error was 46 statute miles.
24 hour forecast intensity near landfall:
The 5 pm Thursday advisory gave Charley a 2 pm Friday forecast of 121 mph with gusts to 150 mph. The actual was 138 with gusts to 167 mph, so an error of 17 mph on both.
36 hour forecast position near landfall:
The 5 am Thursday advisory gave Charley a 2 pm Friday forecast of 26.3N 83.0W. So the 33 hour position forecast error was 40 statute miles.
36 hour forecast intensity near landfall:
The 5 am Thursday advisory gave Charley a 2 pm Friday forecast of 109 mph with gusts to 132 mph. An error of 29 mph sustained and 35 mph gusts.
(48 Hours) In the 5 pm Wednesday bulletin, Charley was forecast to be 26.0N and 82.5W. Again, the final 18Z reported position was 26.1N and 82.4W.
A track error, at 48 hours, of just 9 statute miles. I'm sorry, but that's very tough to beat. The forecast intensity was not nearly as good, off by 35 mph at verifcation time.
- - - - - -
So, some error (especially on windspeed), but overall quite a good forecast. The lead time on warnings was well over 30 hours, the TPC/NHC did quite well in my opinion.
Here's the predicted track from about 48 hours before landfall. Which is when I really started paying attention to it because I would have time to prepare my property and get out of the way. The track goes right over Sanibel Island.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/graphics/AT03/11.AL0304W.GIF
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