Posted on 08/14/2004 7:40:50 AM PDT by Brian Mosely
An independent analysis of the reaction of independent voters from the Swiftvet television ads has been completed by Muhlenberg College and HCD Research and the results posted here. The study group consisted of 371 independent voters who self-described their political leanings thusly:
Conservative: 4.31 %
Somewhat conservative: 12.67%
Moderate: 42.32%
Somewhat liberal: 16.98%
Liberal: 4.31%
Unsure: 19.41%
As people can see, the moderates in the middle plus the "unsure" dominate the mix, but the outliers seem tilted a bit towards liberals. More on that later.
I won't get into the entire methodology -- after all, the report is on line -- but the analysis is pretty thorough. Analysis is given on interest and credibility on a moment-to-moment basis throughout the commercial, and both rise continuously as the Swiftvets speak. But the Kerry camp has to be concerned with the overall analysis of the commercial's impact on independents:
According to AdverTest real-time tracking data, Independents showed strong belief in the Swift Boat ad. Furthermore, belief rose as the video progressed, which suggests that the continuous clips of veterans denouncing Kerry each add more credibility to the ad as a whole. (Page 14) ...
Not only did Independent viewers consciously attest to the persuasiveness of the Swift Boat ad, but they also reconsidered intentions to vote for Kerry at startling levels after viewing the video. (Page 15) ...
The researchers did a comparative analysis between the SBVT ad and a Kerry campaign ad, and the Kerry ad fared rather poorly:
In overall persuasiveness, Independents were more convinced by the attacks of the Swift Boat ad than by the supporting message of the Kerry ad. 53.89% of Independent viewers agreed to some extent that the Swift Boat ad was persuasive. Meanwhile, 43.25% felt so about the Kerry ad. Also, the Swift Boat ad managed to outperform the Kerry ad yet again in the intensity with which viewers accepted its message. 15.03% of Swift Boat ad viewers chose the strongest level of agreement with the notion that the ad is persuasive, while only 7.30% of Kerry ad viewers did so. (Page 15)
But here's the worst of the bad news for John Kerry -- all that persuasiveness really does result in independents being persuaded to fall away from Kerry like a Swiftboat running towards the open sea ... away from Cambodia:
Perhaps the most astonishing demonstration of the Swift Boat ad’s effectiveness, however, is the proportion of potential Kerry voters whose opinions shifted after having watched the ad.
Independents intending to vote for Kerry felt considerably less sure of their choice after watching the Swift Boat ad. Before the ad, 41.94% of Independents intending to vote for Kerry felt that they would “definitely” vote for him; 37.10% felt “most likely” to vote for him; 20.97% were “leaning” towards him; and none were “not sure.”
These levels of commitment changed markedly after viewing the Swift Boat ad. Independents “definitely” voting for Kerry dropped to 29.03%. Those “most likely” to vote for him were relatively unchanged at 33.87%. Those “leaning” towards Kerry dropped to 9.68%. Finally, Independents “not sure” of their initial choice of Kerry increased substantially to 27.42%. This substantial change attests to the effectiveness of the Swift Boat ad’s attacks.
Voters who definitely intended to support Kerry drop by almost 13 points after seeing one 30-second ad, and leaners drop by over half. Kerry lost 23 points from this single advertisement, and the study was done before the collapse of Kerry's Cambodian Christmas myth. Not only that, but this was a left-leaning sample group. In other words, this ad may be political Kryptonite for the Democrats. No wonder they've sicced their lawyers onto every television station in the country who wants to run it!
The summation says it all very clearly: "These results should dismay the Kerry campaign." Using that picture of the Swiftboat officers as a campaign prop may be the biggest blunder in modern Presidential politics, maybe the worst since Gerald Ford liberated Poland in 1976, or Jimmy Carter made his teenage daughter Amy his chief policy advisor in 1980. (Hat tip to reader Xavier)
Why do they bother asking people if they are conservative, liberal, etc...????
Just give them a political alignment test. They are short and sweet, and can place a person more accurately than that person can.
I will believe the study when French Kerry's polls numbers drop.
I thought this thing was a bad idea. Shows you how much I know.
I think some liberals are starting to recognize that John Kerry is a compulsive liar. Liberals that I talk to on a regular basis are suddenly less willing to run to the defense of Kerry when it comes to the issue of honesty.
which means that there will be no further release of kerry military records AND any divorce records, house liens, tax records, postings on websites, and dirty underpants and boxes of grecian formula for men found in the trashcans of all the swiftboatvetsfor truth will be on major networks for the next couple months.
i can hear katie couric now, breathlessly and incredulously asking steve gardiner, "you mean your hair color is FAKE,chemically enhanced? how can we be expected to believe anything you say considering this startling discovery?
fortunately they are not girlie men. they can take it. after all, they've been through a war. after all, they know the true meaning of heroism, which does not require telling everyone you are a hero.
Theres some definite desperation on the part of liberal pundits and media.
This explains Carville and Matthew's histrionics.
Nope. The damage a bait and switch would do is too great to risk it. Especially with the McGreevy thing going on.
Now that we see the results, donate to the SBVfT.
https://coral.he.net/~swiftvet/swift/ccdonation.php?op=donate&site=SwiftVets
Swift Boat Veterans for Truth
c/o Weymouth Symmes, Treasurer
PO Box 26184
Alexandria, VA 22313
Does anyone else see Hilary Clinton coming to the rescue?
I do, friend. If it happens, let's just stand up and shout, TOLD YOU SO!
You are mistaken if you think the Kerry campaign, all of whom look forward to ambassador positions, or senior WH staff positions, are going to abandon him even if it is clear he lied.
They will caucus among themselves and manufacture excuses and "mis remembrances" and whatever it takes and the MSM will report those responses and put the story to bed.
The ONLY way you can have an impact here is to call the Bush campaign and volunteer to register voters in GOP neighborhoods. It is only a few hours of your time. It is the only way you can act on your own outrage.
Is it likely that, contrary to the image of the Bush campaign blundering along without a map, the Repubs really have a very strong battle plan being employed behind the scenes?
I have sent in by little contribution to the swifties to help get the ad some air time. I understand they are working on a new ad. I'm looking forward to seeing it and hope it too adds to the Kerry campaign's dismay.
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