Posted on 08/02/2004 8:54:08 AM PDT by Nascardude
Monday August 02, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 47% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Today is the first Tracking Poll data based entirely upon interviews conducted after John Kerry's speech at the Democratic National Convention. The results reflect a one-point improvement for the Kerry/Edwards ticket. That's well within the survey margin of error and also reflects a two-point net decline from the poll results immediately prior to Kerry's speech.
One week ago today, the last Tracking Poll before the convention began showed Kerry and Bush tied at 46% each. Just before his speech, Kerry was leading 48% to 45%.
When comparing the convention "bounce" measured by various polling organizations, the timing of the polls must be taken into account. At Rasmussen Reports, we track the race daily while other organizations do so more sporadically.
If we compare the same polling nights as Gallup's pre-and post convention polls, Rasmussen Reports data shows that Kerry had a negative bounce of one-point during that time frame. Our data also shows a slight negative bounce over the time frame measured by Newsweek.
Later today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release data showing if ideological perceptions of Kerry and Edwards shifted following the Democratic Convention. Before the festivities in Boston, 41% of voters saw John Kerry as politically moderate and 43% saw him as liberal.
Also at 3:00, we will provide our weekly update on who voters believe is winning the War on Terror. We will also look at who voters believe is a better leader--George Bush or John Kerry.
Beginning tomorrow, and continuing throughout the week, we will release a new wave of Rasmussen Reports state election polls to update our Electoral College projections. Currently, we show Kerry with a modest lead, 227-208. There are 103 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.
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Our latest update shows that voters remain evenly divided between Kerry and Bush when it comes to the economy. Bush retains a very modest advantage on the issues of national defense and the War on Terror. Results on both issues are essentially unchanged over the past week and will be updated again next week.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters say it is more important to insure that Iraq becomes a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy than to bring home our troops as soon as possible. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 39% take the opposite view and believe that bringing home the troops is a higher priority.
No kidding, wait til Saturdays polling drops off the 3 day average
With Kerry looking worse and worse the Dems must go big time negative and they will. The news media will help them by putting all their operatives on the convention "panels".
Looks like the only "bounce" from the convention went to President Bush.
I'd say the ony thing "confirmed" by this is what we have known for several months now. When Kerry speaks publicly, he loses support.
It will be interesting to see what the polls do in the wake of the RNC convention, and how the media spins those numbers.
I'm on a tight suicide watch for my extreme liberal neighbors (nice folks, just wacky libs).
This is most telling of what will come.
"I'm Bill Clinton and I'm reporting for booty!"
I'm also waiting for the polls after the saddam hussein trial begins. Americans will be reminded of just what an incredible monster hussein was and how the war in Iraq is totally justified.
The DNC tried to galvanize the base with their convention, softening their rhetoric so as not to offend the swing voters.
The RNC is clearly going directly after swing voters with their convention.
It will be interesting to see which strategy is more effective.
Conventional wisdom said Kerry's bounce wouldn't be much to talk about and CW was correct. So far, there is no real bounce to speak of. The Dem Convention was basically a failure and the almost dead silence coming from the media proves it was a failure. The media can't just fabricate a bounce for Kerry-Edwards. Maybe they'll be a delayed reaction. OTOH, I doubt it.
This is great news. Too bad the Washington Post is going to rain on our parade with its "hold-onto-your-hats" poll later tonight.
think of the kid and the dyke and there is a hole in the dyke. The water represents the polls going down and every time Kerry speaks, more water spills into the area supposedly protected by the dyke. As long as the kid keep his thumb in the hole (as long as Kerry keeps his lid shut) he will at least break even.
Make me wonder why he would even try to make a speech until the day before the election, but thats just me.....
by the way, eventually the dyke will spring a second hole (The Ray zuh?) and then a 3rd hole (Johnny Boy Edwards?) at which point the boy with the thumbs in the dyke will be out of thumbs....
WE CAN ONLY HOPE!!
Let's see.
Newsweek- An obvious slanted sample showed a very miniscule if any gain for Kerry, after looking at the internals Kerry might have actually lost ground.
Gallup- Bush actually gains a lead
CBS/NYT- ANother poll that oversamples democrats and they only got a 1 pt bounce for Kerry when you know they did all they could to give Kerry a bounce.
Rasmussen- Kerry has one day of a decent bounce and loses that same bounce the next day before the sample rolls off the 3 day average.
What does all this mean -BYE BYE JOHNNY KERRY
NAH NAH NAH NAH
NAH NAH NAH NAH
HEY HEY HEY GOOODBYE!!!!!!
Same here.
We live in a small, country like area, so we would want the bodies removed post haste!
The smell of rotting flesh would ruin the gardening experience. ;)
He's not going to be able to hide between now and November. The voters are going to get good and tired of seeing John F'n Kerry.
I assume approval is still at around 50%?
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