Posted on 07/22/2004 4:40:58 PM PDT by Dr. Marten
Taiwan — why China will not invade
Peter Zhang
BrookesNews.Com
Monday 19 July 2004
Some American commentators have been warning of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. For years now I have been advising that such an event is not on any Chinese militarist's calendar. As I have said before, two fundamentals must be borne in mind. The first is the fact that for sometime China has been working to undermine American influence in the region.
By showing that America is a "paper tiger", "an ally without courage", as one official put it to me, Beijing hoped to weaken the regional powers' faith in American willingness to stand by its allies, especially Taiwan. China's sabre rattling should be seen as part of this process. This is why President Bush's prompt response to China's threatening behaviour to Taiwan was welcomed in the rest of Asia.
For fear of sounding repetitive, I have stated many times that it is Beijing's prime long term aim to drive America out of Asia and then virtually out of the Pacific, at least as far back as the Hawaiian Islands.
There are those among China's political elite who believe that America is in a state of terminal moral and political decline and that this will eventually be reflected in American political power shrinking in absolute terms. They think that this decline will be preceded by an increasing inability by America to project military power. This is why many in Beijing believe time is on their side. (Taiwan thinks otherwise).
If this belief is dominant why should China ruin its long term hopes by attacking Taiwan and thus bringing the wrath of the US Congress down on its head, not to mention the US Navy? Well, there are those in Beijing who like to occasionally test US resolve.
This brings me to the other fundamental fact — the true state of the PLA. A few years ago a PLA general claimed that they could "roll up Taiwan in 10 days." This was pure bravado and he knew it.
Even though China has more than 2 million troops, its equipment is still largely obsolete. Compare this with Taiwan's 400,000 troops, highly trained and motivated, equipped with the latest hardware and backed up by a huge reserve of well-trained personnel.
Any attempt to cross the Taiwan Strait would therefore inflict the kind of massive losses on China's armed services that no government, even in China, could survive. It has been suggested that as a token military gesture the PLA could invade one of the outlying islands, Kinmen perhaps.
Even in this instance losses would probably be politically unacceptable and certainly militarily embarrassing. Beijing has not forgotten that in 1949 Mao ordered about 20,000 troops to take the island of Quemoy. As the island was only separated from the mainland by a narrow strip of water, the invasion should have been a walkover.
After about 60 hours of ferocious fighting the invaders suffered about 9,000 casualties while 6,000 were captured. It was a humiliating defeat that the PLA never forgot.
Fifty-five years have passed and the military situation is even less favourable to the PLA. To take Taiwan the PLA would need an invasion force that would dwarf the allied forces that landed in Normandy in 1944. The invaders would have to cross 100 miles of sea, and then what was left of them would have to storm the most heavily defended coastline on the planet. It would be a massacre.
Some media commentators have claimed that China could drop paratroopers on Taiwan's airfields while simultaneously using missiles to knock out the island's communications and fixed defences. This is fantasy.
It is amazing that anyone could imagine for a single moment that the PLA would be stupid enough to think it could successfully takeover any defence facilities in Taiwan with paratroopers.
Using missiles is equally na飗e. Taiwan defences are in deep bunkers and connected by a maze of tunnels; all communications have been designed with every contingency in mind. Even using the Chinese air force to try and destroy the island's surface defences would be suicidal. The only thing that could work would be a massive nuclear strike. And that is something Beijing would never do.
Any attack on Taiwan would result in devastating losses for the mainland and political upheaval. Furthermore, the long-term political and military consequences, particularly with respect to Japan, from an attack are not something that China's political elite would omit from its calculations.
Forget about Taiwan for now, it is not the current problem.
Ping!
do we know who this writer is? He is very confident.... almost too much so...
Even though she hates the Communist government in Taiwan (she lived through the horrors of the Cultural Revolution, and her father committed suicide), and loves the US, and is very intelligent and well-read, her attitude towards Taiwan is militantly "Taiwan is part of China and has no right to break away". I presume most mainland Chinese hold a similar attitude.
Although the situation between China and Taiwan is somewhat complex, apparently the Chinese don't view it that way, and to them it's as worth fighting about as was the attempt of the Confederate states was in the US during the 1800's. She also feels that the US has absolutely no right getting involved in an "internal" matter of China's.
If it ever does come to a showdown, expect the Chinese attitude to be extremely intractable, and for them to hugely resent American "meddling". I get the impression that it *is* something they would feel justified in going to war over.
" Compare this with Taiwan's 400,000 troops, highly trained and motivated,"
Usually I agree with with Zhangs assessments, but he is pretty far off base when he claims that Taiwans militar is highly trained and motivated. That is a little bit far from the truth. In fact, it is just the opposite.
Better than all the bedwetting Chinese military panic-mongers with the military knowledge of a retarded field mouse.
"Even though she hates the Communist government in Taiwan"
Communist government in Taiwan?? I think you mean China.
As for your assumption that the majority of mainland Chinese feel the same way about Taiwan, yes, you are correct. My wife is Chinese and we simply do not discuss Taiwan. Otherwise, we tend to butt heads.
China is an empire - just like the Soviet Union was. When the Chicoms fall -- as they eventually will -- the Chinese empire will breakup in the same way that the Soviet empire did. When that happens, Chinese nationalists will have alot more to be bitter about than the loss of Taiwan.
By showing that America is a "paper tiger",
We will see in November what Americans are made of, America must show the world they are not made out of paper!!!
Oops, yes I did mean "in China".
I am sad to say that as I read history and current events, this is not an irrational conclusion for the Chinese to have reached.
One of the characteristics of empire, aside from strength, is divergent interests under one banner. Typically -- say as in the case of Austro-Hungary--the divergent interests are correlated with the multiple, poorly absorbed ethnicities of regions that have been absorbed into the empire. Eventually, these divergent interests work against the health of the whole.
In the US, we have come up with a new, "modern" way of achieving the same situation. We are letting immigration run wild, importing foreigners at a rate that far exceeds our ability to assimilate them. We are creating the "divergent interests" characteristics of empire at home without the conquest. It is crazy!
It can be argued that the Romans did some of this by importing foreign slaves and foreign merceneries, but I think our approach is peculiarly different. Citizenship now leads to lesser rights in many areas -- aliens have special rights to medical care (check out your local hospital emergency room), lowered tuition in some states, and, in many areas, their illegal status cannot even be questioned.
So, to show I haven't rambled completely off base, does it seem like the Chinese assessment of the US quoted at the top of this post seem wildly off the mark? I think not. It might not work out that way (if we wake up), but this ain't my Dad's USA, either.
China has a rapidly growing economy, they have considerable technological prowess, and they are very nationalistic. I'm not heavily into appeasement but it would be wise to treat China with respect.
Many of their attitudes were shaped in the terrible years of colonial rule, from the Opium Wars to the Taiping rebellion. (The latter, in the mid 19th century, cost 20-30 million lives and was lead by a cult leader who believed he was the younger brother of Jesus Christ. Hence the modern Chinese allergy to sects such as Qi Gong, as well as to Christian churches.)
They also suffered terribly at the hands of the Japanese in WWII. My guess is that China's behavior is largely defensive in nature. I suspect the Koreans as well as the Japanese will have nuclear weapons before too long, which will circumscribe any Chinese ambitions against its neighbors.
I lived in Taiwan for close to two years and it is clear that the Taiwanese would soundly defeat any Chinese invation, for the following reason.
1) The PLA is vastly overrated. The vast majority of the troops are canon fodder conscripts who definitely will not risk their life and limb to 'reclaim' Taiwan. Sure, the average Chinaman will tell you how strongly he feels about reunification, but when push comes to shove, they will not risk their life, their economy, or international pariah status to bring about this glorious unification of the Chinese people
2) The Taiwanese are some of the best fighters in the world. Outside of Israeli pilots, Taiwanese air force fighters score the highest in US Air Force training camps.
3) The logistics of invading Taiwan would make D-Day look like a walk in the park.
4) People think that foreign direct investment in mainland China is incredibly diversified, it is not. Sixty percent of fdi is Taiwanese. China invades, the goose is killed.
5) Japan, Singapore, Thailand (to a certain extent), Malaysia, Australia, and the US will certainly provide substantial material and forces to aid the Taiwanese armed forces in case of an invasion.
6) The Chinese cannot simply launch an invasion force, because American satellites will give Taiwan and her military allies advanced warning and Taiwanese, JDF, Singaporean, Australian, and US Jets will pick off any invasion force as they cross the 100 mile long Straits of Taiwan.
7) The Chinese know that if they start fire bombing (long range missiles) Taipei and other cities, this opens them up to intense bombing from Taiwan and her allies, which would include the Three Gorges Dam, Beijing, and Shanghai.
8) China has tried to invade the Pescadores many times and failed each time.
9) Even if the Chinese were to gain a foothold in Taiwan they would be met with intense partisan fighting within Taiwan, a general strike, etc...The Taiwanese would fight to the death a la Stalingrad etc......
10) And the Chinese lose the Olympics and ensure that Japan, South Korea, and a liberated Taiwan immediately become nuclear.
11) When the invasion fails, Taiwan gains instant recognition from the World.
In conclusion, the Chinese know that an invasion (despite all their bluster and talk) will never work and will ensure Taiwan's complete independence. Their strategy is to bind the two countries in a shared economy so that Taiwan has no choice but to enter into some type of union with China. The leadership of the CCP knows they will never invade.
Well they do have a copious supply of cannon fodder over there.
You mean, on the Mainland
Can you say Noah's Flood, part II???
I agree with your assertions.
The Chinese would suffer horrendously crossing the Straits of Taiwan.
I suspect the Taiwanese army has prepared for how to deal with a crossing by the PLA.
Right, see my post #10. Sorry for the typo.
And just as surely, China has spies over there too. It could get interesting if China actually tried it, but Taiwan would come out on top. China knows this very well, but also knows that it has to bluster in order to save face.
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