Poll: Bush/Cheney Lead The Way In Ohio (48% to 43%)

Centre for Public Opinion ^ | 7.22.04

[ambrose]

July 22, 2004

Bush/Cheney Lead The Way In Ohio

(CPOD) Jul. 22, 2004 – The Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney could carry the state of Ohio in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the incumbents, while 43 per cent would support Democratic challengers John Kerry and John Edwards.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of one per cent of respondents, while eight per cent remain undecided. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Bush carried Ohio’s 21 electoral votes in 2000, with 50 per cent of the vote. The state has supported the eventual president in every election since 1964.

Polling Data

If the 2004 presidential election were held today, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents?

Bush / Cheney (R) 48%

Kerry / Edwards (D) 43%

Nader / Camejo (I) 1%

Undecided 8%

Source: Strategic Vision Methodology: Telephone interviews with 801 likely Ohio voters, conducted from Jul. 17 to Jul. 19, 2004. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

[ambrose]

Do you know anything about this pollster?

[EggsAckley]

I've never heard of them, but the way they spell center "CENTRE" might imply a European source.

[Flightdeck]

I know he who takes Ohio takes Washington

[EggsAckley]

I just looked at their site and a lot of Canadians are on their staff.

[BlackRazor]

Also posted here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1176363/posts

[lelio]

Telephone interviews with 801 likely Ohio voters,

What gets me about polls that small is that an individual voter can sway the percents a lot. With 48% (384) and 43% (344) all it would take is 20 Bush voters to jump over to Kerry's side to make it an even race.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Is it time to panic yet?

[RockinRight]

He'll win Ohio.

[Izzy Dunne]

might imply a European source.

If you look at the web site, it's from Canuckistan.

[JohnnyZ]

With 48% (384) and 43% (344) all it would take is 20 Bush voters to jump over to Kerry's side to make it an even race.

Or 20 to go the other way to make it a blowout. That's why they calculate margin of error with a certain confidence level ...

[savedbygrace]

More encouragement, though not from Ohio:

I received an email reply from a friend this morning. He wrote:

"I've been a registered Democrat for my whole life. Haven't voted for the Dems since Carter and would not, could not vote for Kerry if he was the only man running. It makes me sick to think he's fooled the American Public into nominating a traitor for the highest office in the world. I wouldn't be surprised if he loses by the largest margin ever recorded. I hope so anyway."

[mak5]

Strategic Vision's website is at www.vision-inc.com and describes them as a group of psychologists who have done consumer research for many years. Their clients include ABC, Nestle and the Republican National Committee, which probably commissioned this poll.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

If the stock market continues to crater, all bets are off!

[combat_boots]

I know Ohio. Go away from the big cities and stay away from the back roads if you aren't known there. We're hicks and proud of it. Never you mind now. We're jus' poor country folk.

[OneTimeLurker]

If it's stays down or continues down until Sept. 1st, there will be trouble. Even if it rebounds after Sept. 1st it won't have much of an impact because quarterly stmts. will have already been calculated.

[OneTimeLurker]

Err, I mean the end of Sept.

[LS]

Or 20 Kerry voters jumping to make this a landslide :)

[COURAGE]

I was panicking months ago.