Louisiana poll: Bush leads Kerry 52%-38%

Bayou Buzz ^

[No Dems 2004]

The poll also surveyed the candidates running for President. According to the poll, President Bush leads. The pollsters asked, "If the election for President of the United States was held today between Republican George Bush, John Kerry and Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?". Bush captured 51.7 %, John Kerry received 37.6% and Nader picked up 1.7 percent".

Interviews for the statewide poll were conducted by telephone with 700 registered Louisiana voters on Wednesday, March 17, Thursday, March 18, and between Monday, March 22 and Monday March 29, 2004.

The overall margin of error for the statewide statistics obtained from the survey of 700 Louisiana voters is not greater than plus or minus 3.8% at the 95% level of confidence.

[No Dems 2004]

Well, this poll was conducted a while back, I know, but I still think it's probably the way things tilt right now. Considering that Louisiana twice voted for Bill Clinton, this is a pretty strong showing for President Bush. I don't think the Dems will be able to reverse this. I suspect that Texas being a close neighbour to LA may have some impact, too.

The President won Louisiana 53%-46% in November 2000.

[Redbob]

That's a poll of registered voters.

Show me a poll of likely voters.

[BlackRazor]

A bit dated, but I don't think we've seen this one before.

[Flux Capacitor]

----Show me a poll of likely voters.----

You'll have to wait for that one. The New Orleans Dems are still digging them up.*

-Dan

*literally

[republicanwizard]

Bush will win the state by 15 points or more. That only will increase his national margin.

Nice biased article though. Blanco can impact the Presidential race. BS, BS, BS!

Oh, and the Middle East War. What an idiot.

[republicanwizard]

Actually, it was racist conservative Democrats, not Republicans who voted for Blanco over Jindal. Although they had more in common with Jindal, they couldn't vote for him because of his color. Ditto with Terrell. Just goes to show where the real racists live-in Democratic country.

[No Dems 2004]

"Bobby Jindal was leading in Governers race by 10-20 points earlier. And was then soundly defeted."

Jindal lost by 52%-48%, hardly a 'sound defeat'. And most polls showed him ahead by very little just before the contest. His ethnicity hurt him there, too, in the racially sensitive Deep South. It's well known that polling in such places can overestimate a non-white's support, because racists in such a candidate's party will sometimes lie about their voting intentions, or there will be a lot more 'undecideds' than usual. Just think of what happened to Ron Kirk in the supposedly competitive Texas Senate race in 2002. I remember polls giving Cornyn just a thin lead just before the election, only to see Kirk stomped lifeless on election day. It's happened in other states, too.

However, I believe that the Bush vs. Kerry race will be a GOP victory because the MA Senator has nothing to offer southerners. By comparison, George W. is their neighbour. I think this actually poll shows that the Prez has a pretty good hold on LA, at least at the moment.

And for those of you who are questioning the dating of the poll - if you read the full article, you'll see that it was just released - it's not stale news. I don't know why they took so long to release it.

[Owen]

A good poll result and it eliminates Louisiana from a wishful thinking Kerry campaign strategy. Notice Kerry is in Pittsburgh this week. His polling internals have shown Pennsylvania slipping towards Bush. They can't afford that. They have made progress in Ohio, but they give it away if Pennsylvania substitutes for Ohio's electoral votes.

Keep it always in mind that the 2000 Census moved Electoral Votes to Bush states. A lot of them. If Bush simply held the same states he held 2000 he would win by 9 electoral votes instead of just 2. This means he could actually give away West Virginia and still win. Or, as above, substitute Pennsylvania for Ohio, give away West Virginia, and still win.

[The_Victor]

I suspect that Texas being a close neighbour to LA may have some impact, too.

Given the treatment most Texans recieve in Louisiana (in my experience), this would likely be a negative. :)

[Flux Capacitor]

----of course voter fraud was involved as usual and also racism of republicans (also his phony-opportunist coversion to christnity didn't help either)----

Apart from our trademarked voter-fraud, and assuming you're not being sarcastic, what in the living HELL are you talking about?

"Racism of Republicans"? Today, over two-thirds of Louisiana voters are registered Democrats. The 30-odd percent of Republicans are generally concentrated in the cities -- most of which, including Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Monroe, and KKKathleen Blanco's own hometown of Lafayette, Jindal won.

It takes massive crossover voting for any La. Republican to have even a prayer of winning a statewide election, and Jindal came within four points of the governorship. Had there been any sizable bloc of Republicans turned off by the color of his skin, Jindal could not possibly have gotten 48% of the vote. No, what cost him the election were the rural Democrats whose voting patterns have been trending GOP but who in this case couldn't stomach the idea of a non-white governor.

And as for Jindal's religion, he converted to Catholicism 15 years ago, when he was still in high school. Nothing phony about it; no opportunistic motives ("boy, this'll sure help me get elected governor several decades from now!"). The Dems did all they could to convince us that Jindal was still a committed Hindu who'd grown up overseas, when of course he was a committed Catholic who'd been born and raised right frigging here.

Judging from KKKathleen's actions so far, we might as well have just busted Edwin Edwards out of prison and put him back in the Governor's Mansion. No politician ever went broke overestimating the stupidity of the Louisiana voter.

-Dan

[Flux Capacitor]

----Bush will win the state by 15 points or more.----

He'll win by five. Maybe less.

-Dan

[BlackRazor]

Bobby Jindal was leading in Governers race by 10-20 points earlier.

Jindal never held a lead approaching 20 points. His largest poll lead was 11-points. However, it was clear heading into the election that Blanco had captured the momentum. She had sliced Jindal's poll lead to practically nothing in the closing days, and in fact, in the final night of sampling of the daily tracking poll, she had pulled ahead.

[Dales]

Thanks!

[republicanwizard]

I think of Louisiana voters as being as stupid as Massachusetts voters.

[LizJ]

I think Jindal is pretty young. I don't know if he has won an election before running this past year. That could be why he didn't pull it off.

I bet he still has a good career ahead of him. He is running for Congress right now, and I am hoping he wins.

[Theodore R.]

I didn't know that Congressman Alexander had endorsed Bush. Governor Blanco and Senators Breaux and Landrieu are all on the Kerry wagon. Popular former Senator J. Bennett Johnston, Jr., D-LA, now a lobbyist, has been a financial contributor to Kerry. Most LA politicians will stand with Kerry, I would think.