Bush Ad--Kerry Gas Tax

[latina4dubya]

Just saw my first Bush Ad this election season here in California... it was the one about Kerry raising the gas tax... it was like a black and white silent movie... i like how President Bush approves the ad at the beginning... could showing this ad mean they think California is in play?

[GraniteStateConservative]

It means he has a whole lot of cash and it's burning a hole in his campaign wallet.

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[kevkrom]

It means he has a whole lot of cash

Agreed.

and it's burning a hole in his campaign wallet.

More like Kerry is at a cash disadvantage and if Bush can make California competitive enough to make Kerry spend time and money there, it's that much less that Kerry can put into real battleground states.

[Huck]

Seriously. Cali is blue country. Why bother?

[deport]

Too early to tell which states for sure will be in play but the ads help assure the democrats will have to counter with some cash of their own at some point, imo.

[alloysteel]

Of course California is in play, at least, Kerry has to be made to believe it is. The intention is to force Kerry to spend scarce funds to defend his margin there, subtracting from the funds available to spend in "battleground" states.

If Arnold were not governor, there would be much less incentive for Republicans to even make a token effort. This way, the Democrats are off balance, and rightfully worried. Even the Senator's seat is not a safe bet for Democrats this year.

Who knows, California may even rejoin the US someday soon.

[latina4dubya]

actually, i just realized it played on CNN... (i was flipping back and forth from FNC to CNN--both were covering the stuff going on in Iraq)... so since it was on CNN, does that mean it ran across the country? maybe it wasn't an ad targeting just California... i'm not sure how that works... if it was a national ad, or a specific state target ad...

[EDINVA]

try telling Ahnold.

Kevrok has it right ... if Bush's campaign has that much money and makes CA competitive, even tho they know they'll likely lose it, it forces Kerry to defend his own turf, using up his scant resources.

CA beyond SF/LA is red if you look at all their recent election results ... of course it's like saying only NYC and Albany are blue in that state.

[My2Cents]

BTW, that is probably the most clever political ad I've ever seen.

[Huck]

Well, y'all are smarter than I am. I didn't figure Cali was in play at all. Ahnold won because they recalled the other guy. We'll see what happens.

[Dales]

If I had to guess, the reasons are threefold.

1) Try to limit Kerry's advantage in California to help open up a lead in the nationwide popular vote as measured by the opinion polls. If the "race" according to the various national polls appears close, it helps Kerry raise money.

2) Help keep California relatively manageable to help out Jones' in the Senate race.

3) One never knows. Maybe California can be swayed.

Reason 1 is probably the main reason though.

[Malchus]

I go to school in Mass. and I saw a Bush ad here the other day; that seems like much more of a waste of money than cali

[MIchaelTArchangel]

California has a Republican governor because Governor Grayout Davis was a Democrat who is viewed by many as the source of California's woes. Gray Davis may be viewed by many voters as being the ultimate Democrat which might tarnish John Kerry who has all of Grayout's charisma.

If you look at the California House membership, you will see the state is more equally divided that the last vote in the 2000 election there seems to indicate. In any event, any time President Bush can force Kerry to spend in California is time Kerry cannot spend in other states.

[steelwheels]

The ad is running in Texas too. I don't think its just for Californians.

[GraniteStateConservative]

No, it is your local CNN. It's an ad buy in California.

[GraniteStateConservative]

It didn't mean that in 2000. Gore didn't spend a dime there, but Bush sure did.

[GraniteStateConservative]

He wasted money there in 2000. These ads won't mean a thing as far as winning the state. Ads work in closer states. California isn't a close state. If Bush wins there, it has nothing to do with an ad buy in April.

[mewzilla]

I've seen the ad here in NYS. It's terrific. And I bet it's making even more of an impression in CA where gas prices are higher.

[GraniteStateConservative]

No, you're right. This is a dumb use of money. You can spend money in a battleground state on things other than ads. NH is a battleground state and we don't have yard signs and such, yet. He could have spent money on making sure every county committee had that stuff months ago.