Poll: Kerry, Bush tied in Pennsylvania

AP | 3/17/04

[kattracks]

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush and Democrat John Kerry are tied in a two-way presidential race in Pennsylvania, according to a poll out Wednesday. When Ralph Nader is included in the matchup, Bush has a slight lead.

Kerry had the backing of 45 percent of Pennsylvania voters and Bush 44 percent in the state narrowly won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000. Pennsylvania has 21 electoral votes.

With the independent candidate Nader involved, Bush has 44 percent, Kerry has 40 percent and Nader has 5 percent in the poll by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Bush and Kerry are running close in the Philadelphia suburbs, where Democrat Ed Rendell ran strong in his successful race for governor.

The poll of 1,022 registered voters was taken March 9-15 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[Coop]

More good news from PA.

[rrrod]

its ealy so we cant get to excited ..but i like it !

[mware]

Don't you love it. They choose the headline of tie, when in a three way race. Bush leads.

[Dog]

Coop wasn't Kerry ahead in PA?

Is Kerry beginning to fade?

[boomop1]

110% of the Philly voters will show up as usual and no alarm bells will go off. This guy is incapable of stealing this election he will be in the nut house by the time Nov 2 gets here.

[The G Man]

People always talk about the shenanigans in Florida. IMO, the real travesty of the 2000 election was Pennsylvania. Donna Brazille earned her pay in that state.

[Coop]

Coop wasn't Kerry ahead in PA?

Not really. All the polls I've seen recently show statistical ties, not unexpected given PA's 2000 voting results. But it's bad news for Kerry given all the focus/positive press on him, and the best he can do is tie the Prez in a swing state Gore won.

[guitfiddlist]

Don't you love it. They choose the headline of tie, when in a three way race. Bush leads.

Exactly. Why doesn't APartisan News Service also show the results if GOP voters forget to vote in November.

[republicanwizard]

Yeah, and Kerry already has an image which isn't so hot.

[uncbob]

More bad news

A dork like Kerry shouldn't even get 1%

The American public is a pack of boobs

[Coop]

I don't care if the dork is a Republican or Democrat, they're almost automatically going to pull 42-43% of the vote thanks to the letter after his/her name. That's life in a dem republic.

[Brandon]

Quite honestly, that's the headline I would have used. Nader won't be on the ballot everywhere; he doesn't have the Greens greasing the skids for him this time. Even if he is on the ballot in a given state, I expect Nader's support to collapse in the last few days before the election. That's what happened in 2000. That, combined with the love bomb the Dems dropped on us about the DUI, is why the final outcome was so much closer than the polls were showing.

[Dales]

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4

[Dog]

I was correct......:-)

[Ramcat]

"I expect Nader's support to collapse in the last few days before the election. "

Possibly. But here in Dem and union dominated SW PA there are those who for whatever reason will never vote Republican. On the other hand there are many traditional Catholics (like my mother) who will not vote for Kerry because of PBA or Mexico City.
They will vote for Nader if he's on the ballot.

[Coop]

I was correct

About what? I used Dales' chart to refresh my memory before answering you. It shows a steady statistical tie. Or were you talking about something else?

[Buck W.]

On a related tangent: did anyone else see Lawrence O'Donnell on Scarborough last night? They were discussing the fact that the NYT buried a poll positive to Bush in the middle of the paper. O'Donnell had the gall to say that the NYT was finally practicing responsible journalism by not overstating the importance of their own polls!

[eureka!]

"More good news from PA."

'Tis good news, albeit way too early to get excited. The real good news is that W is defining Ketchup Boy and has, in less than a week, damaged the nearly year long sheen applied by the presstitutes. In any event, the Rats/Left are desparate and we need to fight like we are 10 points behind everywhere...