Perry's job rating declines to 40%, according to poll

Houston Chronicle ^ | 3/5/04 | R.G. RATCLIFFE

[Diddle E. Squat]

AUSTIN -- Controversial budget cuts and the bitter congressional redistricting battle apparently have turned Rick Perry into the most unpopular Texas governor in 14 years, according to a poll released Friday.

Half the 1,000 Texans surveyed in the latest Scripps Howard Texas Poll said they disapprove of the job Perry is doing as governor. Just 40 percent gave Perry positive marks.

That marks the greatest level of dissatisfaction with a Texas governor since Republican Gov. Bill Clements' last year in office in 1990, when 59 percent of the Texans surveyed said he was doing a poor job.

Texans turned on Clements in 1987 because he was involved in a football pay-to-play scandal at Southern Methodist University and broke a no-new-taxes campaign promise by signing into law the largest tax increase in Texas history.I

In Perry's case, the slide seems to have been caused mostly by bitterness over three special sessions on congressional redistricting last year.

"The biggest event probably was the negative publicity surrounding redistricting, which was an ugly political fight," said Perry pollster Michael Baselice, who questioned the poll's accuracy.

The Scripps Howard Texas Poll was conducted Feb. 12-March 3 in a random sample of 1,000 adult Texans. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Baselice said it is unlikely that rumors about marital infidelity, which Perry has denied, played any role in the drop in the governor's numbers. Baselice predicted that Perry's image will improve in the public eye once he holds a special session on public school finance reform.

Perry spokeswoman Kathy Walt said Friday the governor is unconcerned about the poll results.

"Gov. Perry governs by principle, not polls," Walt said. "Gov. Perry has demonstrated leadership by tackling tough issues like solving budgetary problems without raising taxes, creating jobs and expanding the economy, and improving our children's education."

But the poll indicates that Perry could face serious problems when he runs for re-election in 2006.

Former Gov. Ann Richards' worst job approval rating -- 51 percent -- came just weeks before her bid for re-election was crushed by Republican George W. Bush.

Bush's worst job approval rating occurred as he took office in 1995. Only 37 percent of Texans said Bush was doing a good job and 22 percent disapproved, but 41 percent said they knew too little about Bush to make a judgment.

Perry's job approval has been in a steady decline since just before he ran for re-election in 2002. He entered that race with 67 percent of Texans approving of his job performance, and he came out of the bitter contest with half approving.

His job approval declined to 44 percent last summer. It rebounded slightly to 46 percent in the fall, with 44 percent disapproving. The latest poll indicates a six percentage point drop in his positives with a like rise in his negatives.

The governor's job approval rating among self-described independents -- the swing voters in state elections -- has dropped 42 percent since last November to 33 percent. And among Republicans, support for his tenure is down from 74 percent last fall to 66 percent.

"That's not good for any politician," said SMU political scientist Cal Jillson. "Any politician going below 50 percent (job approval) needs to be looking over his shoulder."

In Perry's case, he could face possible Republican primary challenges from either U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison or Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn. U.S. Rep. Jim Turner, D-Crockett, who is losing his seat due to redistricting, also has indicated he may run for governor.

Strayhorn said the poll results showed a general displeasure with Perry's administration.

"Texans know this governor has abdicated his responsibilities and created local crises in education and health care by signing laws that balance the budget on the backs of school teachers and our most vulnerable Texans," Strayhorn said.

She said Perry passed state costs on to local governments and cut the budget in a way that caused 107,000 children to be "thrown off the health insurance rolls in the last five months. That's unconscionable."

The reduction in the rolls of the Children's Health Insurance Program likely resulted from changes in eligibility requirements.

Jillson said voters perceived Perry as "harsh" in his handling of the budget and then partisan on redistricting.

"His administration, seen broadly, is seen in a number of instances as unsatisfactory," Jillson said.

Reid Slaughter, executive editor of the Park Cities People newspaper for Republican neighborhoods in Dallas, last fall ran an editorial critical of Perry titled: "Won't You Come Home Kay Bailey."

Slaughter said the Texas Poll showed a general unhappiness with Perry for having put partisan redistricting ahead of repairing the state's public school finance system. He said Perry is out of touch with voters and that could hurt him two years from now.

"Strayhorn would be the most likely to take him on, but Kay Bailey Hutchison would trounce him," Slaughter said.

The five-month redistricting battle played out in a regular legislative session and three specials called by Perry. Republicans twice were blocked by Democrats who broke legislative quorums to halt debate.

The sessions produced a plan that likely will result in Republicans holding a 22-10 majority in the state's congressional delegation after this year's elections, replacing the 2002 Democratic majority of 17-15.

University of Houston political scientist Richard Murray said Perry also is suffering partly from the continued downturn in the economy, the export of high technology jobs overseas and a decline in popularity for Bush. He said that all combines to make life for difficult for politicians in the party in power.

"Numbers this bad usually means an incumbent governor loses, but he has time to recover," Murray said.

[Diddle E. Squat]

No way will I ever vote in a primary for Carole Keeton McClellan Rylander Strayhorn Your Ad Here, I don't trust her as far as I can throw her.

We'll see how this shakes out, I'd be suprised if Perry's poll numbers stay down.

[jf55510]

Strayhorn said the poll results showed a general displeasure with Perry's administration.

"Texans know this governor has abdicated his responsibilities and created local crises in education and health care by signing laws that balance the budget on the backs of school teachers and our most vulnerable Texans," Strayhorn said.

She said Perry passed state costs on to local governments and cut the budget in a way that caused 107,000 children to be "thrown off the health insurance rolls in the last five months. That's unconscionable."

How about you STFU. Strayhorn advocating raising taxes without saying it.

[BillaryBeGone]

No way will I ever vote in a primary for Carole Keeton McClellan Rylander Strayhorn Your Ad Here, I don't trust her as far as I can throw her.

I just saw a sample ballot in the Corpus Christi Crappie - er - Caller Times this morning - and didn't see anything about the governor's job being up for grabs. Did I miss something? BTW, I can't say as I much trust Ms. McClellan-Rylander-Strayhorn-Whateverhernameisnow either.

[GeronL]

Those children weren't poor enough to get the poverty health care program that was being discussed.

[GeronL]

Reid Slaughter, executive editor of the Park Cities People newspaper for Republican neighborhoods in Dallas, last fall ran an editorial critical of Perry titled: "Won't You Come Home Kay Bailey."

Laugh out loud. Are they trying to make this sound like a conservative paper?? LOL... no such thing.

[jf55510]

I just saw a sample ballot in the Corpus Christi Crappie - er - Caller Times this morning - and didn't see anything about the governor's job being up for grabs. Did I miss something? BTW, I can't say as I much trust Ms. McClellan-Rylander-Strayhorn-Whateverhernameisnow either.

No, the Governor is not up for re-election until 2006. Although someone should tell that to Carole Keeton McCellan Rylander Strayhorn < your name here > because she has been campaigning ever since the last election ended. I would bet big money that here people are the ones that put out the Perry gay/divorce rumor.

[jf55510]

Those children weren't poor enough to get the poverty health care program that was being discussed.

I know, she is making it some sort of national tradegy. How sad is it that in 2006 the three probable Governor candidates are Perry, Strayhorn, and Hutchison? In Texas of all places we get such crappy choices and the sad thing is that Perry is the lessor of the three evils. sigh

[NYCVirago]

They don't mention anything about the ugly rumors the Dems have been spreading about Perry in the last few weeks. Shameless.

[bayourod]

"Texans turned on Clements in 1987 because he was involved in a football pay-to-play scandal at Southern Methodist University and broke a no-new-taxes campaign promise by signing into law the largest tax increase in Texas history."

He lost because he was anti-Republican.

He always believed that he sinsle-handedly bought the first Republican primary and general election thus did not need any Republican help. The second election he relied almost entirely on Democrat volunteers and lost. Third time the Republican state executive committee met in a special closed door session to discuss ways to keep him from running as a Republican.

Did Karl Rove learn anything?

[bayourod]

Carole Keeton McClellan Rylander Strayhorn sufferers from the "little woman" syndrome (commonly exhibited by dykes trying to imitate men).

She feels like she has to act like an arrogant a**hole to be respected. She has demoralized the professional employees in her tax office and alienated business owners in Texas.

Her father was one of the finest men I've ever known.

[GOPyouth]

I don't know why in the world Kay Baily Hutchison would give up her seat in DC to run for a shared power position in Austin, Texas.

I would really like to see Todd Staples run for governor one day. He's a good man.

[jf55510]

I don't know why in the world Kay Baily Hutchison would give up her seat in DC to run for a shared power position in Austin, Texas.

Because she is old and has a couple of adopted youngsters and may just want to not travel. I would just prefer that we retire her old ass to Dallas.

[outinyellowdogcountry]

Since Ms Strayhorn has inserted herself into judging the govenor in a newspaper, let it be known that the recent ugly rumors have originated from those closely associated with HER. She hired the Democrat strategist who ran Tony Sanchez's campaign. It seems she is PO'D that the govenor took away some of her power. There may be a better word for her than one tough grandma.

[Vision]

But the poll indicates that Perry could face serious problems when he runs for re-election in 2006

I don't know, but that's a long way off

[deport]

In Perry's case, the slide seems to have been caused mostly by bitterness over three special sessions on congressional redistricting last year.

---

Yep, makes total sense to me that a majority of Texas voters are dissatisfied with the results of those three sessions.... Who are they trying to fool?

[lavrenti]

The Perry rumors actually helped him, considering the nature and absurdity of what was posted and slopped around the Democrat Internet shooting galleries. Like a bunch of dumbass machine heads too unlettered to pass a high school chemistry class, so-called "progressive" Democrats cooked up a batch of political crank, and are in the process of having it explode on them.

When I heard these rumors six weeks ago, I knew by some of the names being thrown around that, if true, it would be out in days. Instead, it has been weeks, thanks largely to an inventive "protest" at the GovMan that the Austin Chronicle saw fit to finally mention the rumors in the context of the protest signs. I've known Louis Black for more than 20 years. I know how he covers his ass.

Then, the Statesman takes its cue, and the knucklehead chair of TDP mouths off at a public forum. Now, yesterday's Houston Chronicle story.

I still don't see a divorce filing. Jeez, imagine that! Sums up the entire imbroglio. Those morons at burntorangereport better have engaged a brace of good attorneys. The very fact that Texas Democrats are relying on Internet rumors spread by UT undergrads probably overheard at the Cedar Door totally discredits an already disreputable bunch.

As for Carole "married more than Liz Taylor" [fill in latest chump here], she was a mediocre mayor of Austin, and that is a charitable comment. She badly mishandled the Matagorda nuke plant situation, destroyed the possibility of downtown streetcar service by ripping up the old lines (would have been a boon to Austin downtown), and continued the fine Tom Miller/LBJ tradition of opening the refridgerator door one's face in regards to urban development.

Two aspects of Carole are in her favor. Her sons Mark and Scott McClellan. In that regard, Perry needs to worry, considering both are muckymucks in the White House and Scott is Rove's pet project.

Ironies above and beyond reside in this story. I'm keeping my mouth shut.

[lavrenti]

Just a simple fact. Scott used to run her campaigns. He be busy at the moment.

Carole is a hack. Her position in Texas government is owed to Karl Rove and George W. Bush. They can pull the plug on her political career anytime.

She really has no business commenting on someone else's personal life.

[MissAmericanPie]

Perry fought the intrenched demonrats to a standstill on redistricting. He's the only Republican I have seen really get in the pit and fight for something.

If only he would fight the fed for our sovereign borders he would really be worth keeping.

[jpsb]

As I have been predicting for many months, Bush is going to pull down a lot of Republicans in this up comming election. I fully expect the GOP to get blown away.