Pew Poll: Kerry 48, Bush 44

pollingreport.com ^ | 3.3.04

[ambrose]

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 24-29, 2004. N=749 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
.
"Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, or John Kerry, the Democrat. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated.
.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other/ Unsure
		%	%	%
	2/24-29/04	44	48	8
	2/11-16/04	47	47	6
	12/19/03 - 1/4/04	52	41	7
	10/03	50	42	8

[ambrose]

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Feb. 11-16, 2004. N=1,149 registered voters nationwide.
.
"Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held TODAY, and the candidates were [see below]. Who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Unsure": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more to [see below]?" Names rotated.
.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Other/ Unsure
		%	%	%
	ALL	47	47	6
	Men	54	41	5
	Women	41	53	6
	East	40	55	5
	Midwest	45	51	4
	South	52	42	6
	West	47	46	7

[ambrose]

Note how they only used 749 voters in this current sample, whereas 1149 were used in the previous poll?

Think they dumped several hundred poll respondents when they didn't get the result they wanted?

[oceanview]

As Dick Morris and Tony Snow said tonight: the media and the Dems have painted the "3 million jobs lost" and the "illegal war in Iraq" onto Bush. And it's had an effect, people shouldn't discount this.

[COEXERJ145]

:yawn: I'd just like to know how 749 "registered voters" surveyed in March can tell us how the entire country is going to vote in November. :yawn:

As Rush says, "these polls are now used to make news".

[madprof98]

Evidently a lot of women favor gay marriage.

[bogdanPolska12]

This poll means nothing. Game has just begun and President is just warming up. Kerry will end up with on egg on his face there is so much stuff that Rove can use against this kangaroo he will wish that he never ran. As for Clintons trying to jump in into this if I was President I would say bring in on let us fight like man to man.

[mystery-ak]

The MOE is a little high and makes this even, plus 3 of those days polled were the weekend....Im sure the numbers are close though.

[TheLion]

Betcha the odds are in favor of getting a liberal on the phone. Most conservatives are probably screening their calls are out doing something more important.

[BushCountry]

It was not to long ago that Dean was going to win the nomination! How funny.

I think that Reagan was down 15% at this time in the election. These are completely useless polls designed to manufacture news.

[joyful1]

I've got this sick feeling that Bush is going to lose

We're about to descent into hell in a handbasket folks

[alwaysconservative]

Good catch in noticing the difference in poll sample! The other thing that bugs me about this one is that in October, wasn't Kerry "dead in the water"? How the heck did he get over 40% while Howard Dean was still "the man"? This poll smells like "pew" to me.

[Paleo Conservative]

The Pew Foundation is another one of those leftwing foundations that spits on the grave of its founder. Their polling tends to skew left.

[jackbill]

Is this poll any better or more accurate than the Rasmussen tracking poll? In Rasmussen's poll, Kerry hasn't led since Feb. 17.

Rasmussen polls about 600 people per day, including weekends, and keeps a three day rolling average.

I was polled by Rasmussen last Saturday. You can guess how I "voted".

Rasmussen's poll is at:

http://rasmussenreports.com/

[mystery-ak]

Don't get sick now...if the numbers are still like this in Sept and Oct, I'll join you.

[Joe Hadenuf]

I've got this sick feeling that Bush is going to lose

We have written, emailed, voted (CA prop 187) begged, protested for relief from literally millions illegal aliens pouring into our country. What did Bush do? He throws out an amnesty plan.

That was like throw gasoline on a grease fire in a stick match house.

[pete anderson]

The only thing 1149 respondents would do is take take the MOE from 4.0% to 3.5% which would not be statistically significant. Let Bush spend his 100 million and he will leave Kerry in his dust.

[Izzy Dunne]

N=749 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

MOE's the Man!

[Dales]

Nah. If they were going to do that, they'd have just made up the numbers and said it was a 1,200 sample. The smaller number is probably because there was some other question that they were trying to measure last time, which was just a subset of the entire population, so to get a reasonable sample on IT they ended up polling 1,200 registered voters.

It doesn't shock me that Kerry is ahead. In the last 25 years, every single incumbent has fallen behind during the fall of the year before the election going on into the new year.

The difference is that this time he is barely ahead, and electorally, he is behind. Bush was in a much better position in 2000 than Kerry is now.

[AntiGuv]

The Rasmussen Poll was the worst poll in 2000. Their final poll had Bush winning by 9% over Gore! The final Pew Research poll had Bush 49% to Gore 47%.

[Paleo Conservative]

The final Pew Research poll had Bush 49% to Gore 47%.

But when was their poll sample taken? Was it before the DWI story hit the air?