West watches nervously as the Kremlin raises its flags

Financial Times ^ | March 3 2004 | Andrew Jack and Stefan Wagstyl

[Tailgunner Joe]

The nomination of Mikhail Fradkov as Russia's next prime minister will do little to soften the Kremlin's increasingly assertive foreign policy, especially in the countries of the former Soviet Union.

Mr Fradkov, a long-serving diplomat whose name was put forward on Monday by President Vladimir Putin, will bring to the post considerable experience of international relations. But he will also arrive with a history of close ties with the security services. While his personal views are not known, he is a member of the siloviki, the current and former members of the security services, headed by Mr Putin, who now dominate the Kremlin.

This group has presided over increasing state control in political and economic affairs. In foreign policy, its members have taken a tougher approach to Russia's neighbours.

Igor Ivanov, the Russian foreign minister, insists the country has legitimate interests to protect and is right to challenge US attempts to increase its influence, for example in Georgia.

In a recent meeting with foreign journalists, Mr Ivanov said: "Our political scientists are very concerned at how the US has created a circle around Russia. We have a national strategy and interests in the former Soviet Union. They reflect historical links that we are developing. They should not be seen as a re-establishment of Soviet relations . . . The main interest of Russia is to create around [the country] a security zone."

The country is also concerned about the 20m ethnic Russians living in surrounding states and about its expanding economic interests, notably investments by energy companies such as Gazprom, the gas monopoly, and UES, the electricity giant.

However, the US and the EU are worried about Russia's motives. The European Commission last month accused Russia of "assertive" behaviour towards neighbours. A senior American official told the FT there were parallels between developments in domestic policy and increasing assertiveness towards former Soviet neighbours.

The arguments date back to the 1990s, when a crisis-torn Russia was forced to accept the collapse of the Soviet Union and the eastward expansion of Nato and the European Union. In the past year, led by an effective president and fuelled by economic recovery, the Kremlin has raised flags on several fronts.

It began with a dispute last year with Brussels over access to the Kaliningrad exclave, which will be surrounded by EU territory when Poland and Lithuania join the union in May. This was followed by a border row with Ukraine in the Sea of Azov; arguments with Washington over the triumph in Georgia of Mikheil Saakashvili, the new US-oriented president; and a clumsy one-sided Russian effort to end the long-standing division of the troubled state of Moldova.

These disputes have been compounded by Russian attempts to influence the deployment of Nato forces in the Baltic states, all ex-Soviet republics. Russia last month threatened to pull out of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, a key east-west accord.

The Kremlin has also raised last-minute objections to the EU's eastward expansion, complaining of threats to Russia's economic interests. Brussels wants to extend to its 10 new members the existing partnership and co-operation agreement (PCA) covering EU-Russia relations. Moscow has demanded the accord be renegotiated.

Finally, Moscow has demonstrated the political value of its domination of regional energy supplies by briefly cutting off the main gas pipe to the west which crosses Belarus. The move was aimed at putting pressure on Minsk in a payment dispute, but it caused a political storm in Poland.

Some of these rows will settled but others will rumble on. New disputes could also emerge, for example, over Ukraine, where Viktor Yushchenko, a leading candidate to succeed President Leonid Kuchma in elections this autumn is seen as a threat because he has strong US backing.

Mr Putin will almost certainly try to prevent these rows affecting global relations with the US and leading European states, including France, Germany and the UK. He knows the west dominates the international community to which he wants to belong. He also appreciates the US-led anti-terrorism war which serves Moscow's interests by targetting terrorist threats on Russia's southern borders.

However, the siloviki and others who want to play tough have plenty of scope. Mr Fradkov's appointment, which is due to be confirmed later this week by the Duma, is unlikely to stop them.

[LiteKeeper]

INTSUM - RUSSIA and the PHOENIX

[dr_who_2]

Russia has nukes, sure. But apart from that, I wonder how likely it is that they would overplay their hand, so to speak. I doubt they have many friends in Eastern Europe.

[Dr. Marten]

Bump!

[F16Fighter]

The European Commission last month accused Russia of "assertive" behaviour towards neighbours.

Now, now ladies...

[RussianConservative]

Wait until core EU gang rape new Eastern Europe members...then Russia may have much new friends.

[dr_who_2]

Yes, I overlooked that possibility. France and Germany are both potential perps.