Bush Gains, Horse Race a Dead Heat (Kerry down by 7 points since last week - Gallup)

GALLUP ^ | 02-10-04 | David W. Moore

[veronica]

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds a hypothetical presidential contest between President George W. Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry a dead heat. Bush receives 49% support among likely voters and Kerry 48%. Last week, Kerry led Bush by 7 points, 53% to 46%, but a month ago -- before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary -- Bush led Kerry by 12 points, 55% to 43%.

Bush also does slightly better this week than last against the other three major Democratic candidates.

While Bush trailed North Carolina Sen. John Edwards by one point last week, the president leads by four points now. Bush leads retired Gen. Wesley Clark by five points now, compared with three points last week. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean trails Bush by 10 points in the current poll, compared with 7 points last week. Changes since last week in the relative electoral strength of Bush vs. each of the candidates, Edwards, Clark, and Dean, are all within the poll's margin of error. Still, Bush's improvement against each of the candidates is consistent with the significant improvement in Bush's standing against Kerry.

The poll results show that the political landscape has changed dramatically since the beginning of January, when Bush enjoyed double-digit leads over the Democratic candidates. Still, it is not as positive for Democrats as it was last week, when Kerry led Bush by seven points. The change from last week could be related to a decline in the positive publicity Kerry received in the wake of his dramatic victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Whether the political landscape continues to move back in Bush's favor or stabilizes at a more competitive level remains to be seen.

Bush Approval Up to 52%

Bush's job approval is now at 52%, compared with 49% a week ago, and 59% a month ago.

GRAPHS, MORE, HERE

[The South Texan]

The silence from CNN and Chrissy Mathews is deafening.

[Semper Paratus]

Some horse race. The horses haven't left the stables yet.

[veronica]

Kerry's already wearing a bit thin, while Bush is just gearing up. :)

[babaloo]

Did I miss the "Kerry in a freefall" story somewhere?

[Guillermo]

Goodness.

Now we're subject to a daily poll on a race that isn't for 10 months.

That's roughly 300 polls from now till then...and taking into consideration there are about 3, 4 polling orgs that are regulalry posted here, we're going to see roughly 1200 of them.

[over3Owithabrain]

Looks like a Bush bounce baby! This with AWOL, WMD, and all the other BS.

[FlipWilson]

This says it all to me. The President came out of his corner and started to fight, even if only slightly. Say what you want about his appearance on MTP, but I think it was the proper strategy. Even if he did not hit the ball out of the park, at least he was out there, refuting the hatred of the Democrats. The President should continue his rope a dope strategy and then lower the boom in the tenth round.

[gathersnomoss]

Strategery.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

So...has Kerry peaked ?

[rintense]

Horse race? Don't they mean horse FACE?????

Folks, not to be Oliver Stone here, but this picture, taken Feb. 7 looks NOTHING like pictures of Kerry the previous week. I think he had a stand in. Really. Or can they do a botox reversal?

[cweese]

...i agree 100%. these polls are totally meaningless until after the first debate, imo...

[TheBigB]

The whole Kerry bump is due to publicity from the primaries and nothing else. Bush will have $200 million to spend for the general election. In MAY of 1988, Dukakis led Bush pere by TEN POINTS! Polls now mean not a darn thing!

[GROOVY]

Some of this boost is likely from his impressive (at least I thought it was) Meet The Press performance. I saw the Extreme Bush hater Bill Maher on Norville last night, and was surprised to hear him say he thought Bush got the better of Russert with the interview or something like that.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Most reptiles go thru a molting process...

[veronica]

I think this poll was taken before Bush went on MTP. Nevertheless, his numbers came back UP, AFTER David Kay's testimony. Interesting...

[petercooper]

is the race next week?

then why are people so obsessed w/ polls?

[Fresh Wind]

Did I miss the "Kerry in a freefall" story somewhere?

Yes, you must have missed it among the "Bush in freefall" stories that have been running for the last year or so.