Posted on 01/12/2004 1:45:34 PM PST by FairOpinion
In 2002, the "Doomsday Clock" that symbolizes how close the world is to nuclear war advanced to a scary seven minutes to midnight, partly because of three worrisome developments: Nuclear powers India and Pakistan were edging toward a conflict; fears were growing that terrorists would obtain nuclear materials; and President Bush (news - web sites) was spurning international treaties in favor of a tough, go-it-alone foreign policy.
Fast forward to this week. While the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has not changed its 57-year-old clock officially, the world is breathing easier. India and Pakistan are beginning to talk peace. North Korea (news - web sites) hints it may follow fellow rogue states Libya and Iran in allowing nuclear inspections. And both of those shifts have ignited an intriguing debate over whether Bush's strategy has been, in fact, provocative or a positive catalyst for the promising new developments.
Though time will be the ultimate judge, certainly a case can be made that these tentative peace overtures were spurred by the threat of Bush's 2002 pre-emptive strike doctrine. It warns those who might use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons that they are vulnerable to a first strike from the U.S. A similar argument is made by many historians who credit President Reagan's military buildup and "Evil Empire" rhetoric for pushing the Soviet Union toward collapse.
Regardless of cause, the challenge for the Bush administration is to seize the diplomatic opportunity to transform these encouraging events into lasting gains that make the world safer. Among the possibilities:
Libya. Dictator Moammar Gadhafi, a long-time patron of terrorism, has agreed to scrap his nuclear weapons program in the hope that the U.S. will lift economic sanctions on his country. Libya can provide information about illicit nuclear suppliers, such as Pakistan and North Korea, and help identify al-Qaeda and other terrorist networks.
North Korea. A member of Bush's "axis of evil," it is believed to have at least one or two nuclear weapons that could obliterate the South Korean capital Seoul and about 37,000 U.S. troops stationed there. But last week it made a conciliatory gesture, saying it would dismantle its nuclear program in exchange for U.S. aid and a guarantee against attack. While difficult diplomacy will be required to strike a deal, disarming North Korea would remove a major threat to U.S. allies in Asia and curb the country's sale of missiles to other rogue regimes.
Iran. Another "axis of evil" member, it is long suspected of trying to develop nuclear weapons. Iran's new promise to allow U.N. inspections can help curb the spread of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. The U.S. is trying to capitalize on the concession by offering to hold talks, but Iran so far has rebuffed the overtures.
Bush's critics, including Democratic presidential candidates, are hammering away at the argument that his aggressive posture has made the world a more dangerous place. They say the U.S. must return to its past practice of resolving conflicts through diplomacy. But that view is as one-sided as that of foreign policy hawks, who claim Bush's threatened - or actual - use of force doesn't need to be applied cautiously.
New-style U.S. assertiveness combined with the equally powerful "old" tools of international dialogue can best nudge that Doomsday Clock away from midnight.
Daschle is deeply saddened, I am sure, and so is Dean.
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