Why not, it's Halloween!
Posted on 10/31/2002 6:57:01 AM PST by BlackRazor
New survey shows Chocola gaining ground
Long Thompson: Bush wouldn't visit if race were decided
By JACK COLWELL
Tribune Political Writer
SOUTH BEND -- A new Tribune/WSBT-TV poll shows Chris Chocola has gained some momentum. But the congressional race remains basically a tossup as President Bush heads here today to try to provide that final push needed for a Chocola victory.
Chocola, the Republican nominee in the close, contentious and costly 2nd Congressional District race, said the president's visit will send "a message loud and clear" on his behalf in a district where Bush is popular.
Jill Long Thompson, the Democratic nominee, said she already has withstood an avalanche of negative mailings, phone calls and TV spots, "and we're still in a dead heat."
Here are the percentages in the poll:
Chocola -- 49
Long Thompson -- 46
Undecided -- 5
This is the first time in four polls on the congressional race conducted for The Tribune and WSBT-TV that Chocola has been in front.
A 3 percentage point lead still is within the statistical margin for error.
And pollster Del Ali of Research 2000, the Rockville, Md., firm that conducted the polls, said -- as he did with slim Long Thompson leads in the three prior polls -- that the contest must be regarded essentially as a statistical tie.
In the three prior polls conducted since just after Labor Day, Long Thompson was ahead by 3 percentage points, then 4 points and then by a single point.
The latest poll with the 3 percentage point lead for Chocola was conducted Sunday through Tuesday.
"We like the trend," Chocola said.
Long Thompson said she expects the race to be won "on the ground Tuesday," not through the air with arrival of Air Force One.
She said the president would not have decided to make a second trip to South Bend during the campaign if there were any indications Chocola was pulling away to any significant lead.
Chocola also said the ground war, the get-out-the-vote efforts in the precincts, could be decisive.
The president will speak at an airport rally at about 2:15 p.m. Bush is expected to have some "downtime" in South Bend after the rally, with no public events planned, before heading off for another campaign stop.
All 5,000 tickets for the event in the ATA Connection Hangar have been distributed through the Chocola campaign and Republican organizations.
Meanwhile, Long Thompson is planning her own Halloween campaign events as she begins 24 hours of activities from South Bend to Kokomo. She starts with a press availability after the president's visit and a Halloween party for her volunteers. She winds up Friday night with a speech at the West Side Democratic and Civic Club.
A large gender gap remains in the latest poll.
A significant change leading to the edge for Chocola is that he is doing even better among male voters.
Among men, Chocola was ahead by 14 percentage points. In the prior poll, his advantage among men, who traditionally vote more Republican than women, was 8 points.
Among women, Long Thompson was ahead by 8 percentage points, down just a bit from the 10-point lead in the prior poll.
More women than men were in the undecided category, and the pollster said those women could be the key to victory, depending on whether they go strongly for Long Thompson on Election Day or decide to break more evenly.
About the Poll Conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md.
Paid for by The Tribune and WSBT-TV for their exclusive use.
Based on results from telephone interviews Sunday through Tuesday with 400 likely voters in the 2nd Congressional District.
Error margin of plus or minus 5 percent.
This is the second consecutive independent poll giving Chocola a lead. While I don't believe the 12-point lead in the earlier IUPUI poll, it's clear Chocola has the momentum right now.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
It will be tough given the composition of this district. However, by almost all accounts, McVey is a good candidate who has run a strong campaign. This is probably her toughest challenge. An independent poll out earlier this week put Carson up 46-37. I expect the final numbers to be closer than that, but am still calling this one a Dem hold right now.
Why not, it's Halloween!
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