Posted on 10/13/2002 11:47:38 AM PDT by BlackRazor
A dead heat in 2nd District
Long Thompson leads among women; more men back Chocola
By JACK COLWELL
Tribune Political Writer
SOUTH BEND -- A new poll conducted for The Tribune and WSBT-TV shows Democrat Jill Long Thompson with a 1 percentage point lead over Republican Chris Chocola among likely voters in Indiana's 2nd Congressional District. That's a statistical tie. A dead heat.
But if only men were voting, Chocola would be heading for Congress. He leads by 8 percentage points with men.
And if only women were voting, Long Thompson would be the one to represent the district. She leads by 10 percentage points with women.
That's an 18-point gender gap -- almost a gender gulf.
Among all voters sampled, here are the percentages:
Long Thompson -- 46
Chocola -- 45
Undecided -- 9
A Tribune/WSBT poll taken right after Labor Day showed Long Thompson ahead by 3 points. A follow-up poll conducted Sept. 24 to 26 showed the Democratic nominee with a 4-point lead. In both cases, those margins were within the statistical margin for error and indicated really a dead heat.
Now, in the third poll, conducted last Monday through Wednesday, a single point separates the candidates.
Chocola claimed Saturday he is "building momentum" for victory on Nov. 5.
He cited not just edging closer in the poll but also success in fund raising and confidence that voters now are focusing on "the big differences" between the candidates on issues likely to sway district voters to him.
Chocola said his campaign finance report due Tuesday and reflecting fund raising through Sept. 30 will show he has raised about $1.4 million, a record for a congressional candidate in a South Bend-based district. He said 80 percent comes from Indiana residents.
The Republican nominee said the report will show about $420,000 in cash on hand for the final round of campaigning.
Long Thompson, who declined yet to give specific figures from her finance report, said she will not match Chocola in fund raising and never anticipated that she would.
She was forced to halt her TV advertising for several days earlier this month to conserve funds.
Still, Long Thompson said of the polls, "I've been up every time."
Of her standing in the latest poll, she added: "I'm very encouraged by this."
Now, the Democratic nominee said, she is certain of sufficient funding to wage the type of campaign she needs in the final weeks before the election.
The poll showed that neither candidate has pulled away or been pulled down by negative TV attacks from the other side.
All the TV time has brought saturation name recognition. Each now has zero percentage of likely voters not recognizing the candidate's name.
Each went up just a bit in both favorable and unfavorable recognition.
Pollster Del Ali of Research 2000, the Rockville, Md., firm that has conducted the Tribune/WSBT polls, said the "huge gender gap" is a significant factor for both campaigns.
In polls all around the nation for many elections now, Democrats tend to get more support from women, Republicans more from men.
The gap appears to have widened here with a woman as the Democratic nominee and a man as the Republican nominee.
But more than that appears to be involved in the 2nd District, Ali said. The 18-point gender gap is larger than he has seen currently in other polls he has conducted nationwide.
Part of it could be the perception of the TV spots, he said, with Chocola facing "a fine line" between drawing a contrast with Long Thompson and getting too negative in criticism of a woman.
For each candidate, Ali said: "You have to keep your lead with your own gender and get more competitive with the other."
That's not always easy to do, and a mistake in strategy for doing so could lead to defeat in such a close race.
About the Poll
Conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md.
Paid for by The Tribune and WSBT-TV for their exclusive use.
Based on results from telephone interviews Monday through Wednesday with 402 likely voters in Indiana's 2nd Congressional District.
Error margin of plus or minus 5 percent.
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