Posted on 09/29/2002 11:32:02 AM PDT by BlackRazor
2nd District still dead heat in poll
Long Thompson's edge gains by 1 percentage point
By JACK COLWELL
Tribune Political Writer
SOUTH BEND -- A new poll conducted for The Tribune and WSBT-TV shows Democrat Jill Long Thompson still slightly ahead of Republican Chris Chocola -- this time by 4 percentage points -- in the race for Congress in Indiana's 2nd District.
"Basically, it's a dead heat," said pollster Del Ali, whose firm conducted the survey of likely voters throughout the district.
"This goes right down to the wire," Ali concluded.
The pollster said the results are good news for Long Thompson in the sense that she has withstood the campaign visit for Chocola by President Bush and all the media attention for the presidential appearance without losing support.
Long Thompson was ahead by 3 percentage points in an initial poll conducted just after Labor Day. About four-fifths of the respondents in that earlier sampling were contacted prior to Sept. 5, the date of the presidential visit.
Ali said good news for Chocola in the new poll is that the race remains basically a toss-up, with ample opportunity to win, particularly if he can convince more women to side with him on issues and abandon their tendency to vote for Long Thompson.
The Democrat leads by 11 percentage points among likely women voters.
Here are the districtwide percentages of voter support:
Long Thompson -- 47
Chocola -- 43
Undecided -- 10
"I'm very pleased by the support and pleased that it's growing," Long Thompson said.
The Democratic nominee said the poll indicates that voters are listening to issues, particularly to ones she has stressed, rather than being swayed by "negative spots" sponsored on TV by organizations not directly connected to the campaigns.
"It's not a big surprise," Chocola said of the "dead heat" analysis of the pollster.
"We have expected this to be extremely close," the Republican nominee added.
He said the TV "air wars" get attention but "the ground war" of getting out the vote on Election Day will prove decisive.
Not surprisingly, both candidates have much higher name recognition than in the initial poll, and "unfavorable" as well as "favorable" recognition have gone up a bit for both in a race featuring many negative TV spots on both sides.
Long Thompson is regarded favorably by 42 percent of the likely voters; Chocola by 41.
She is regarded unfavorably by 20 percent; he by 26 percent.
Significantly, they are also in a virtual tie among those with a neutral view, actually up a bit for each from the first poll. That is an indication that each has room to gain strength with a strong appeal in the final weeks of the campaign. A neutral opinion of Chocola was expressed by 30 percent; 29 percent for Long Thompson.
In contrast with the first poll, when nearly a fourth of the respondents couldn't initially identify Long Thompson, she lacks name recognition now among only 9 percent. Chocola, who began as the better known candidate, now has almost saturation recognition -- only 3 percent not able initially to identify him.
The pollster said it appeared that Long Thompson had managed to "neutralize" the Iraq issue by supporting President Bush.
What happens with the potentially volatile Iraq issue by Election Day could have impact on the race, Ali said, but "this could be the year where all politics really is local."
He said polling around the country is showing more concern right now for local matters and pocketbook issues than with any "throw the bums out" philosophy or split over Iraqi policy.
"There is still a tremendous gender gap," Ali noted, and "this could be a political red flag for Chocola."
While Democratic candidates around the nation tend to have more support from women than from men, and have for many elections now, the pollster said Long Thompson's exceptionally big gender-gap margin could be due in part to a backlash from negative TV spots aimed at her.
Even though both sides have used negative spots, Ali observed that it is more difficult to use them successfully against a woman candidate than against a male contender.
About the Poll
Conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md.
Paid for by The Tribune and WSBT-TV for their exclusive use.
Based on results from telephone interviews Tuesday through Thursday with 400 likely voters in Indiana's 2nd Congressional District.
Error margin of plus or minus 5 percent.
While Long Thompson's lead only grew by a single point in this poll, her support has climbed from 43% to 47%. She's getting close to the magic 50% number. Chocola still has a chance to win this one, but I think it's slipping away a bit. Especially since he was unable to close the gap any following President Bush's visit.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
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