Poll puts governor hopefuls dead even [AL]

Don Siegelman and Bob Riley are running almost dead even in their campaign for governor with two months left before Alabama's Nov. 5 general election, according to a new poll.

The poll, a random telephone survey of 500 likely voters, shows Riley, a three-term Republican congressman, with 45 percent support and Siegelman, the incumbent Democrat, with 43 percent. Ten percent said they were undecided, while 2 percent said they would support Libertarian John Sophocleus. The margin of error was 4.4 percent for the poll, taken Monday through Thursday.

The head-to-head survey, taken for The Birmingham News, The Huntsville Times and Huntsville's WHNT television, mirrors findings in other recent polls on the governor's race. If its numbers hold, Alabama could see its closest gubernatorial general election since 1994, when Republican Fob James defeated Democrat Jim Folsom by fewer than 11,000 votes.

Ethics issues involving the Folsom administration figured in the outcome of that contest, and the latest poll shows ethics to be a significant issue in the Siegelman-Riley matchup.

Riley has made ethics the cornerstone of his gubernatorial bid, in which he has cast himself as an outsider committed to changing the way things are done in Montgomery. Siegelman, meanwhile, has touted his plan to bring more money to education; the key components of that plan are a lottery and cracking down on tax-evading corporations.

Pollster Larry Powell termed the race a toss-up but said some of the poll's findings suggested potential election-day problems for Siegelman. Powell said the governor's level of support "hits a ceiling at about the mid-40s, and that's not a good sign for an incumbent."

Powell also said that for Riley, the undecided voters are a potentially persuadable group.

"They know enough about Siegelman that they are not immediately in his camp," Powell said. "They're holding off to gather more information on Riley to see if they are going to shift over to that side."

In the poll, voters rated the two candidates almost even in dealing with education. When asked which would be best for improving education, 42 percent listed Siegelman and 39 percent said Riley.

Asked which candidate would be best for "setting high moral and ethical standards," 48 percent listed Riley, 32 percent said Siegelman. The lower figure for Siegelman, as well as his 37 percent unfavorable rating, reflects in part news reports on business that his administration has awarded to companies with ties to friends and supporters. Those business dealings are the subject of a joint federal-state criminal investigation.

Meanwhile, 24 percent of the voters gave negative ratings to Riley, while 20 percent had no opinion at all.

On economic development, the survey reflected voter awareness of the high-paying automotive or major manufacturing jobs that have come the state's way on Siegelman's watch. Fifty-four percent of the voters said the governor would be best for "bringing jobs and economic development" to the state, while 28 percent gave the nod to Riley.

"Riley's done a good job of making ethics a major campaign issue," Powell said. "But you have to give Siegelman credit for making the economy an issue."

While both candidates have shied away from talk of across-the-board tax increases to pay for various cash-strapped state services, Siegelman is pushing a voluntary tax with his education lottery proposal. An education lottery was his chief platform plank in his 1998 win over James.

Unlike four years ago, the governor has not put forth a plan for allocating the lottery proceeds, and he has not given details on how the lottery would be administered. Questions over those details helped defeat it in a statewide referendum in 1999. Riley opposes the lottery and says electing him would kill the idea once and for all.

For now, even though its details are lacking, Siegelman's lottery idea seems to be finding favor among Alabama voters. When asked how they would vote "if a referendum on a state lottery were held today," 54 percent said yes and 41 percent said no. The rest were undecided.

On other issues, the surveyed voters gave Riley double-digit leads over Siegelman when they were asked who could best improve the tax structure and control state government waste. But they rated the two about even on improving health care, adequately funding the state's budget and working with the Legislature.

Yet another poll showing the AL governor race within two or three points.

I routinely post every poll I can find on the various Governor, Senate and House races around the country. If you'd like to be pinged when I post, please FreepMail me.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.