Posted on 05/20/2002 7:55:17 AM PDT by Dog Gone
MOBILE, Ala. (AP) -- Rep. Bob Riley has pulled ahead of fellow Republicans in his bid for governor and leads Democratic Gov. Don Siegelman in a head-to-head matchup, according to a new statewide poll.
Riley led Lt. Gov. Steve Windom 45 percent to 25 percent among people likely to vote in the June 4 Republican primary, according to the Mobile Register-University of South Alabama poll released Sunday. It showed Riley has gained nearly 20 percentage points since a similar poll in February.
Twenty-three percent of likely primary voters were undecided, however, and Riley's nomination was not assured, said David Martin, a retired Auburn University political scientist.
``There are a lot of people out there still left to make up their minds,'' Martin said.
The third GOP candidate, Greenville businessman Tim James, had 7 percent.
Against Siegelman, the poll showed Riley leading with 42 percent of the vote to Siegelman's 35 percent. Twenty-three percent were undecided.
Siegelman had the support of 59 percent of likely Democratic voters, compared to 6 percent for his closest challenger, Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bishop. Thirty-two percent were undecided.
The random statewide telephone survey of 1,110 registered voters was taken May 13-16. It had an error margin of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points in the overall sample, 4.5 percentage points in the Republican primary and 4.9 percentage points in the Democratic primary.
Siegelman sounds pathetic. How did he get elected in the first place?
Pubbies look like toast in MI and IL, but if Rendell beats Casey tomorrow, I like Mike Fisher's chances here in PA.
DWG
One issue: The lottery. And he had it thrown back in his face when the lottery plan went before the people and lost badly.
Never forget Siegelman was the first Governor to endorse Al Gore, and he was to have dinner with Gore the night the Bush v Gore decision was handed down.
Posthumus is trailing against all MI Dems, from the stuff I've seen. In IL, however, the polls show a dead heat. But I still think the Dems have to be favored, given the current governor's PR problems.
Yeah, I wasn't trying to cover all 36 races. I don't agree with the GOP taking GA, though. Barnes is well known and well funded. Cheers
Alabama: GOP pick-up
Alaska: GOP pick-up
Arizona: Rat pick-up
Arkansas: Stays GOP
California: Stays Rat
Colorado: Stays GOP
Connecticut: Stays GOP
Florida: Stays GOP
Georgia: Stays Rat
Hawaii: Tossup
Idaho: Stays GOP
Illinois: Rat pick-up
Iowa: Stays Rat
Kansas: Stays GOP
Maine: Rat pick-up
Maryland: Stays Rat
Massachusetts: Tossup
Michigan: Rat pick-up
Minnesota: Tossup
Nevada: Stays GOP
New Hampshire: Tossup
New Mexico: Rat pick-up
New York: Stays GOP
Ohio: Stays GOP
Oklahoma: Stays GOP
Oregon: Stays Rat
Pennsylvania: Tossup.
Rhode Island: Rat pick-up
South Carolina: Tossup
South Dakota: Stays GOP
Tennessee: Rat pick-up
Texas: Stays GOP
Vermont: Stays Rat
Wisconsin: Rat pickup
Wyoming: Stays GOP
Rats: +4-8
How do you figure this ? AZ is Matt Salmon's for the taking.
California: Stays Rat
I still haven't given up hope here, Davis has sky-high disapproval ratings.
Hawaii: Tossup
I know some Democrats that believe it better to let Lingle take this one, and I think it's her time now.
Illinois: Rat pick-up
I still think we'll narrowly hold this one.
Kansas: Stays GOP
This one I might cede to the Democrats. Sebelius is making few mistakes, and might put a Republican in as her running mate, the GOP race is in shambles.
Massachusetts: Tossup
All depends on who gets the Dem. nod, but Romney is slipping.
Michigan: Rat pick-up
Unless Blanchard or Bonior gets the nod.
Minnesota: Tossup
I think this may be a definite pick-up, with either Sullivan or Pawlenty. We don't even know if Jesse is going to run again.
New Hampshire: Tossup
This is a definite pick-up for us, the Dem. side is like the KS GOP side, disorganized.
New Mexico: Rat pick-up
Unless Sanchez gets the nod, he is a giant-killer who could take down the coronated Richardson who has flaws galore.
Oregon: Stays Rat
All depends on the nominee, but the state is likely to consider a GOPer as they haven't elected a new one since Vic Atiyeh in 1978. I hope they go with Mannix, though.
Pennsylvania: Tossup.
If it's Rendell as the Dem. nom., Fisher wins, if it's Casey, probably he'll take it.
Rhode Island: Rat pick-up
If the Dems put up 2-time loser Myrth York, the GOP could still hold it even with a non-pol.
South Carolina: Tossup
Though a tip to the GOP if they can hold together after a ludicrous overstacking of officials in the primary. Somebody should've stepped in early and told almost all but Condon to stay in their respective offices, a total mess.
South Dakota: Stays GOP
Though with a bloody GOP primary, the Dems have a good shot at a breakthrough. Despite the dreadful federal representation (minus Thune), the state hasn't elected a Dem Gov since 1974.
Tennessee: Rat pick-up
I live in Tennessee, and Phil Bredesen is parroting everything Republican Van Hilleary is saying in an attempt to not look liberal (trying not to repeat his '94 loss). He's pi$$ing off a lot of moneymen and Democrats and gaining no Republican support in the process. This will easily go GOP unless Bredesen's former supporters attempt a last-minute coup d'etat of Hilleary with Sundquist RINO pro-income taxer Jim Henry. If Henry pulls off an upset, I'll have to vote Democrat again as I did in '98 against RINO Sundsquish.
Vermont: Stays Rat
GOP has a better than average shot with James Douglas, and I think it leans GOP.
Wisconsin: Rat pickup
I haven't counted McCallum out, yet.
Arizona is increasingly liberal because of Hispanic population growth. Salmon is probably too conservative.
I still haven't given up hope here, Davis has sky-high disapproval ratings.
Count on the self-centered career women and country club Republicans to vote for a guy who ran up a $24-billion deficit, rather than for a guy who opposes abortion in principle.
I know some Democrats that believe it better to let Lingle take this one, and I think it's her time now.
I stand corrected.
I still think we'll narrowly hold this one [Illinois].
Unfortunately, RINO Gov.George Ryan handed this one to the Rats. It serves the GOP right for even voting for this Castro-loving scumbag.
This one I might cede to the Democrats. Sebelius is making few mistakes, and might put a Republican in as her running mate, the GOP race is in shambles.
True, but I think the GOP turnout will get a boost from Senate and House races. Call it a toss-up.
All depends on who gets the Dem. nod, but Romney is slipping.
Romney will be portrayed as a conservative; however, I think female voters will naturally choose him over Robert Reichhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-sha.
Unless Blanchard or Bonior gets the nod.
Which probably won't happen. The liberal media keeps swooning over Granholm's "rock-star appeal," whatever that is. I find rock stars wholly unappealing.
I think this may be a definite pick-up, with either Sullivan or Pawlenty. We don't even know if Jesse is going to run again.
The Wellstone-Coleman race will boost turnout for the gubernatorial race and make it even more competitive.
This is a definite pick-up for us, the Dem. side is like the KS GOP side, disorganized.
See above.
Unless Sanchez gets the nod, he is a giant-killer who could take down the coronated Richardson who has flaws galore.
Fat chance. Sanchez is a one-term state representative who got lucky because his opponent was also named Sanchez. Richardson will win easily because of the base he cultivated as a Congressman. Sure, Richardson kinda-sorta messed up as Energy Secretary, but he's hard to dislike.
All depends on the nominee, but the state is likely to consider a GOPer as they haven't elected a new one since Vic Atiyeh in 1978. I hope they go with Mannix, though.
Oregon is another state that is increasingly liberal. I'd still give this one to the Rats.
If it's Rendell as the Dem. nom., Fisher wins, if it's Casey, probably he'll take it.
I agree. The unions hate Rendell and might stay home or even vote Republican in November. Still, I don't see what the big fuss is about keeping Pennsylvania in the GOP column this November. Republicans control everything in Pennsylvania, but Bush still lost it. All those old folks vote Rat in presidential elections because of Social Security and Medicare.
If the Dems put up 2-time loser Myrth York, the GOP could still hold it even with a non-pol.
If Rhode Island elects another Republican like Lincoln Chafee, it won't matter.
Though a tip to the GOP if they can hold together after a ludicrous overstacking of officials in the primary. Somebody should've stepped in early and told almost all but Condon to stay in their respective offices, a total mess.
The SC GOP is loonier than Looney Tunes. In the end, they'll probably shoot themselves in the foot. Plus, there are a hell of a lot of black people there.
Though with a bloody GOP primary, the Dems have a good shot at a breakthrough. Despite the dreadful federal representation (minus Thune), the state hasn't elected a Dem Gov since 1974.
Move this one to the toss-up category. By the way, Thune-Johnson will be a squeaker.
I live in Tennessee, and Phil Bredesen is parroting everything Republican Van Hilleary is saying in an attempt to not look liberal (trying not to repeat his '94 loss). He's pi$$ing off a lot of moneymen and Democrats and gaining no Republican support in the process. This will easily go GOP unless Bredesen's former supporters attempt a last-minute coup d'etat of Hilleary with Sundquist RINO pro-income taxer Jim Henry. If Henry pulls off an upset, I'll have to vote Democrat again as I did in '98 against RINO Sundsquish.
Hmm. You guys seem to like Yankee governors over there. I guess it all depends on how good a candidate Hilleary is. Too bad Fred Thompson decided not to run.
GOP has a better than average shot with James Douglas, and I think it leans GOP.
Not sure about this one. Vermont is a crazy place to be if you're a Republican.
I haven't counted McCallum out, yet.
I have. The guy is an idiot. Hopefully, Tommy Thompson will leave HHS and return to Wisconsin before it's too late.
Of your three longshots-- VT is the most likely pick-up. Jim Douglas has already been elected state-wide. The GOP has a chance in MI if Granholm loses to Blanchard. If Gov. Ryan would step-down, IL would be competitive. The GOP definitely has a shot in SC-- another state that Bush will visit often (for Graham's candidacy).
I agree, and if the pre-primary polls hold then Rendell will win. This Nov the Pubbies have a good shot of holding the mansions of CA, TX, NY, FL and PA. The Dems should make some net gains, but that won't mean much if they're shut out of the Big Five.
I don't think it has quite reached the point where it will elect someone like Napolitano to the top job. I actually would've liked to have seen Joe Arpaio take a stab at the job, I believe he would've won handily.
Davis/CA "Count on the self-centered career women and country club Republicans to vote for a guy who ran up a $24-billion deficit, rather than for a guy who opposes abortion in principle."
The state is indeed a cesspool. Perhaps they should just declare independence.
Ryan/IL "Unfortunately, RINO Gov.George Ryan handed this one to the Rats. It serves the GOP right for even voting for this Castro-loving scumbag."
When casting for a role, one mustn't cast on looks alone. Ryan does look like the part of a Governor, but doesn't have the skills of to portray a dogcatcher.
KS True, but I think the GOP turnout will get a boost from Senate and House races. Call it a toss-up.
In Kansas, there are actually 3 parties, making up roughly 1/3rd of the electorate, the Democrats, the Conservative Republicans, and the RINO Liberals. I don't believe a Conservative Republican has been elected in a couple of decades, and the last Democrats elected were more Conservative than the last 2 RINO Liberals (Hayden, and the current, Graves). Where we end up losing here is if Shallenberger, the Conservative, prevails over the now-anointed RINO Liberal candidate, Bob Knight, in the primary, the Knight crowd goes to Sebelius. If Knight gets it, the Shallenberger crowd goes over to Sebelius (or sits out the election). I'm sure she isn't all that worried at all.
Romney will be portrayed as a conservative; however, I think female voters will naturally choose him over Robert Reichhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh-sha.
Of course, Clinton just had Reich's funding cut off at the knees, and Romney will probably face Shannon O'Brien (although I know at least a plan by what's left of the MA Conservatives to flood the Dem. primary to vote for Reich). If Reich gets the nod, it will indeed be apparent who does not have the stature for the top job.
Unless Blanchard or Bonior gets the nod.
Which probably won't happen. The liberal media keeps swooning over Granholm's "rock-star appeal," whatever that is. I find rock stars wholly unappealing.
Currently Blanchard and Granholm are tied in the polls (Granny has apparently slipped a smidge, which let's hope continues). I can't imagine people wanting to go back to that tired old retread (Blanch was knocked off by Engler for a 3rd term in '90), and I know at least one lib Dem who isn't going to be happily trodding to the polls for him.
NM Fat chance. Sanchez is a one-term state representative who got lucky because his opponent was also named Sanchez. Richardson will win easily because of the base he cultivated as a Congressman. Sure, Richardson kinda-sorta messed up as Energy Secretary, but he's hard to dislike.
Well, the Sanchez that Sanchez knocked off was the House Speaker, in a Dem-leaning district. Richardson is almost entirely relying on the media (local and national) to pump up his campaign (and was successful in clearing the field on the Dem side), I think when he faces a fairly strong opponent unafraid to rip him to shreds (he really hasn't faced a strong opponent since he challenged Manny Lujan for the 1st in 1980 (which he lost)), he may be in for a shock.
All depends on the nominee, but the state is likely to consider a GOPer as they haven't elected a new one since Vic Atiyeh in 1978. I hope they go with Mannix, though.
Oregon is another state that is increasingly liberal. I'd still give this one to the Rats.
My prediction of Mannix came true in the primary, as he pulled off a narrow win (after predictions of a 3rd place finish). This will truly be a race between a Conservative and a leftist (Ted Kulongoski). The question is whether a lot of your country-clubbers will trod out for Mannix rather than RINOs Saxton or Roberts, but we tend to know the answer.
If it's Rendell as the Dem. nom., Fisher wins, if it's Casey, probably he'll take it.
I agree. The unions hate Rendell and might stay home or even vote Republican in November.
And Rendell did indeed take it.
Still, I don't see what the big fuss is about keeping Pennsylvania in the GOP column this November. Republicans control everything in Pennsylvania, but Bush still lost it.
Well, I still wouldn't cede it on those grounds. We do need those Govs and legislatures to draw the lines for Congressional districts. I think Dubya will probably take it next time around.
All those old folks vote Rat in presidential elections because of Social Security and Medicare.
True, and now the ultraliberals RINOs that infest the Philly suburbs vote more Dem than the old folks do, often solely on abortion. Sickening.
If the Dems put up 2-time loser Myrth York, the GOP could still hold it even with a non-pol.
If Rhode Island elects another Republican like Lincoln Chafee, it won't matter.
You mean Almond don't ya ? I wouldn't be surprised if the other Lincoln pulls a Jeffords when we take back the Senate. What a little punk.
The SC GOP is loonier than Looney Tunes. In the end, they'll probably shoot themselves in the foot. Plus, there are a hell of a lot of black people there.
I still think Hodges is Elmer Fudd (he sure looks like him).
Though with a bloody GOP primary, the Dems have a good shot at a breakthrough. Despite the dreadful federal representation (minus Thune), the state hasn't elected a Dem Gov since 1974.
Move this one to the toss-up category. By the way, Thune-Johnson will be a squeaker.
I may be overconfident in predicting this, but I believe it could even be a 10% blowout for Thune, though your prediction is probably a more prudent one to make.
TN Hmm. You guys seem to like Yankee governors over there.
Apparently George Ryan left his jerky twin down here, ick. Bredesen is, of course, formerly of Taxachusetts.
I guess it all depends on how good a candidate Hilleary is. Too bad Fred Thompson decided not to run.
Thompson had a horrible past 4 years, he grew sickened by people like John Glenn obstructing the Chinagate investigation, then adding insult to injury losing his committee chair with Judas's switch, and the final straw was seeing the local media here expose his daughter's death as due to a drug overdose. He wants out of politics now, period, and I don't blame him.
Not sure about this one. Vermont is a crazy place to be if you're a Republican.
Well, Douglas has won statewide office handily a few times. The question is just how Conservative he is...
I haven't counted McCallum out, yet.
I have. The guy is an idiot. Hopefully, Tommy Thompson will leave HHS and return to Wisconsin before it's too late.
Whadya think of Ed Thompson ? :-)
Yeah, well sometimes it's difficult to see with one's head buried in the sand.
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