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Could The GOP Really Lose The Senate?
Hotair ^ | 05/26/2020 | Jazz Shaw

Posted on 05/26/2020 9:05:43 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

While everyone is focusing on the Presidential race and the electoral college this year, some GOP strategists are getting a bit nervous about the Senate. Of the upper chamber seats up for grabs, the GOP is defending more of them that look potentially vulnerable if Democrats get some momentum going. This is probably even more important than the question of who wins the White House. If Donald Trump manages to lose his bid for a second term, a GOP Senate majority is the only thing that would act as a check on the new Democratic president’s agenda, whether that winds up being Joe Biden or somebody else.

The Hill has a breakdown of the Senate races to keep an eye on this fall. And if you’re a fan of the conservative agenda, the look of this map might have you getting a bit worried.

Five senators are staring down serious political danger ahead of the November elections.

With less than three months to go until Election Day, the battle for control of the Senate hinges on five key states. Democrats are after four seats in particular – in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina – while Republicans are largely playing defense, but see an easy pickup opportunity in Alabama.

A handful of seats in states like Iowa, Montana and Michigan are also showing signs they may be in play.

As things stand right now, in order to take control, the Democrats will need to flip a net total of four GOP seats if Trump wins or three seats if Biden takes the Oval Office, allowing his veep to break all the ties.

The first and most likely seat to flip is that of Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama. He’s only in the Senate because Roy Moore was such a heavily damaged candidate. Either Jeff Sessions or Tommy Tuberville ought to be able to remove Jones, so then the Democrats will need to flip 5 or 4 seats, depending on Trump’s outcome. So where do they find five seats?

In Colorado, pretty much every analyst has recognized the Cory Gardner is in trouble, particularly if he’s facing John Hickenlooper. Without some dramatic shift in the polls over the summer, the GOP will probably lose that one. In Arizona, Republican Senator Martha McSally is doing pretty poorly in the polls against retired astronaut Mark Kelly. But Arizona still isn’t as blue as some Democrats seem to think and the GOP still controls a majority of the statewide offices. That race will probably tighten quite a bit by September, but it could still wind up being another pickup for the Dems.

In Maine, there’s plenty of chatter about Susan Collins (R) being on the bubble. But that’s been true of pretty much all of her races and she always seems to find a way to make it over the finish line. If we’re trying to be generous to the Democrats here, we can give them Maine as a possible third pickup. The only other Republican that looks like a possible loss is probably Thom Tillis in North Carolina, but that’s far from an easy mark for the Democrats.

If they somehow manage to take all four of those seats and Trump loses, the Senate would be pretty much gone and a looming liberal disaster could be on the horizon. If Trump wins, they would still need to find one more seat to thwart his judicial appointments, though. Where do they get it? It’s hard to see Joni Ernst losing in Iowa. Other than that, the Democrats would need to go fishing for another seat in Kansas, Georgia or Montana. None of those states are particularly fertile ground for liberals.

So looking at the overall map, conservatives may not have as much to worry about as some CNN analysts would have you believe. They will need to go four-for-four in Colorado, Maine, Arizona and North Carolina if Trump wins. (And if he wins, he’ll probably bring some coattail effects down the ballot in marginal states.) If he loses, the Dems will still need to go three-for-four. Not an impossible task, but I wouldn’t place any large bets on such an outcome at this point.



TOPICS: U.S. Senate
KEYWORDS: 2020; elections; gop; jazzshaw; nevertrump; nevertrumper; nevertrumpers; senate
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1 posted on 05/26/2020 9:05:43 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Democrats are busily shooting themselves in the foot, hanging themselves, and immolating themselves. It must take a Rube Goldberg machine to do all three at once, but somehow they are managing it Indiana Jones-style. Will there be any moderate Democrats left? How many Leftard Democrats will remain?


2 posted on 05/26/2020 9:09:05 AM PDT by Eleutheria5 ("SHUT UP!" he explained.)
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To: SeekAndFind

No.


3 posted on 05/26/2020 9:09:23 AM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: SeekAndFind

Not a chance.


4 posted on 05/26/2020 9:10:36 AM PDT by Meatspace
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To: SeekAndFind

My prediction:

With Trump on the ballot this time (not like in 2018), his coat tails are going to be YUGE. Perfect coat tails. The best. Number one coat tails.


5 posted on 05/26/2020 9:10:54 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (The prisons do not fill themselves. Get moving, Barr!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Stop MAIL-IN-VOTING. Sending ballot requests to every voter without them voting is how the DEMS will steal the election.


6 posted on 05/26/2020 9:10:56 AM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord. (Psalm 32:12))
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To: SeekAndFind

Will fearbodies stop promoting fear?


7 posted on 05/26/2020 9:13:16 AM PDT by treetopsandroofs
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To: stars & stripes forever

We do need to focus more on voter fraud to include ballot harvesting.


8 posted on 05/26/2020 9:13:58 AM PDT by volunbeer (Find the truth and accept it - anything else is delusional)
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To: SeekAndFind; bagster; Magoo; Qbert

Yes, we could lose the Senate. Quite a number of people on this forum are currently arguing whether Jeff Sessions is a double agent, secretly working to arrest Hillary as part of a secret Plan. With 160 days until 11/3, this isn’t where our effort should be.


9 posted on 05/26/2020 9:14:52 AM PDT by JonPreston
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To: SeekAndFind

The way everything in this country is going, yeah. Tell me one thing that is going in the right direction with all of the idiots in leadership.


10 posted on 05/26/2020 9:15:32 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: Eleutheria5
Democrats are busily shooting themselves in the foot, hanging themselves, and immolating themselves.

Which means people will feel sorry for them and vote for them. That's about the way it works these days.

11 posted on 05/26/2020 9:16:32 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: JonPreston

Trump wanted Strange and we ended up with Jones

Trump wanted Tuberville, we need to deliver this time around

Sessions is done, he should have just retired and rode off into the sunset. Instead he is too power hungry to realize that he is politically finished. You don’t run the worse DOJ in recent memory, allow the president to be investigated by the opposition for impeachment and unproven conspiracy theories and come back and say “hey I won’t do it again”

We need Tuberville, who the president wants.


12 posted on 05/26/2020 9:18:41 AM PDT by Trump.Deplorable
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To: SeekAndFind; All
Patriots are not about to forget eight years of oppression under the boots of the lawless Obama Administration, or the 3+ years of obstruction of PDJT’s MAGA policies by the anti-USA, Democratic-controlled deep state.

Send "Orange Man Bad" federal and state government Democrats and RINOs home in November!

Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping SARS-CoV-2 will effectively give fast-working Trump a "third term" in office imo.


13 posted on 05/26/2020 9:19:14 AM PDT by Amendment10
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To: stars & stripes forever
Stop MAIL-IN-VOTING. Sending ballot requests to every voter without them voting is how the DEMS will steal the election.

This is absolutely the issue in elections - voter fraud.

14 posted on 05/26/2020 9:20:48 AM PDT by Digger
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To: SeekAndFind
The people here who totally deny this as a possibility are willfully blind, which is more dangerous than just ignorance.

Don't forget that half the people in America are dumber than the average person--and they all vote. It does not matter what the Dems are or are not doing. It does not matter what the Republicans are or are not doing.

What matters is how the media portray them. That is the only source of information most people use or even care to use. Right now the media are pushing for the Dems, so that is what most people are going to back.

15 posted on 05/26/2020 9:22:47 AM PDT by ShadowAce (Linux - The Ultimate Windows Service Pack)
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To: SeekAndFind
Could The GOP Really Lose The Senate?

Possible, but not likely.

16 posted on 05/26/2020 9:24:07 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: SeekAndFind

The November elections are five months away, a lifetime in politics.

Good article, but poll numbers today are virtually worthless. The environment is still too volatile.


17 posted on 05/26/2020 9:25:19 AM PDT by upchuck (Windows 10 is just a fancy spying machine with troublesome, mandatory updates.)
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To: Trump.Deplorable
You don’t run the worse DOJ in recent memory, allow the president to be investigated by the opposition for impeachment and unproven conspiracy theories and come back and say “hey I won’t do it again”

So well said, thanks!

18 posted on 05/26/2020 9:25:46 AM PDT by JonPreston
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“Yes, we could lose the Senate. Quite a number of people on this forum are currently arguing whether Jeff Sessions is a double agent, secretly working to arrest Hillary as part of a secret Plan. With 160 days until 11/3, this isn’t where our effort should be.”

This appears to have been your own assertion in response to another poster.

“Sessions isn’t yet allowed to detail his involvement in the Plan and his role as a double agent working behind the scenes to arrest Hillary, Bill and Obama.”

Source: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3844038/posts?page=10http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3844038/posts?page=10


19 posted on 05/26/2020 9:25:53 AM PDT by treetopsandroofs
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To: SeekAndFind

Only by fraud. And the current situation is being used to set up the fraud.


20 posted on 05/26/2020 9:26:43 AM PDT by kosciusko51
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