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Barring a turnout surge, strong economy favors Trump in 2020, researchers say
CNBC ^ | October 15, 2019 | Jason Lange

Posted on 10/15/2019 1:53:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

WASHINGTON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - A strong U.S. economy could help President Donald Trump win re-election next year unless there is a surge in voter turnout, economic research firm Moody’s Analytics said on Tuesday.

Across American universities and on Wall Street, researchers are honing computer models designed to predict the winner in the November 2020 election in which the Republican Trump will face a Democratic candidate still to be determined.

What makes Moody’s Analytics stand out is its focus on local economic conditions, which have drawn attention this year as a U.S.-China trade war has hit America’s industrial heartland even as the national economy has stayed more buoyant.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2020; economy; trump; trump2020; trumpeconomy; voters
Turnout surges work both ways Jason. We all know people chomping at the bit to vote for Trump, many of whom didn't vote for him last time.
1 posted on 10/15/2019 1:53:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Agree...I believe there is going to be one helluva turn-out surge...for the Republicans.

Bank it.


2 posted on 10/15/2019 1:55:01 PM PDT by Herodes
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To: Herodes

Nothing the CORPORATE MEDIA says or does can make a bit of difference.......that includes the listing Fox network........


3 posted on 10/15/2019 1:59:03 PM PDT by blackberry1
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Barring a turnout surge” of Democratic illegal voters, thousands of harvested voting ballots and states giving electoral votes to winner of national popular vote in spite of who their state actually voted for Trump should win...oh wait.


4 posted on 10/15/2019 2:00:42 PM PDT by antidemoncrat
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Demonrat media solution: sabotage the economy.

“... by any means necessary.”


5 posted on 10/15/2019 2:01:12 PM PDT by A strike (Import third world become third world)
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To: A strike

Demonrat media solution: sabotage the economy.

Not only will they kill the economy, but they will search for psychopaths far and wide to get to do mass shootings progressively more horrific weekly. I am convinced all mass shootings are either jihad or false flags arranged by democrats


6 posted on 10/15/2019 2:12:34 PM PDT by dsrtsage (Complexity is merely simplicity lacking imagination)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Turnout surges work both ways Jason. We all know people chomping at the bit to vote for Trump, many of whom didn't vote for him last time.

They don't want the deplorable blue collar and middle class voters in flyover country to surge. They want THEIR voters to surge.

All that the democrats have been doing since the 2016 election is to try to fire up the far left-wing democrat base. Most democrats (including 99% of the lamestream media) truly believe that the vast majority of voters are far left-wing liberals because they do not know anyone who is not.

The fact that many traditionally reliable democrat voters, including black and hispanic voters, are turning into Trump supporters because they care more about being able to get a job and feed their families than they care about transvestites being able to use the public bathroom of their choice or about the children of rich and upper middle class liberals being able to spend 6+ years in college taking classes in feminist studies paid for by taxes on people who work is completely unfathomable to most of the far left.

7 posted on 10/15/2019 2:50:31 PM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation has ended!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

On FR in 2017 it seemed like 25% of all posts were about 50 jobs here, 150 jobs there.

Now it seems like these posts are only 5%? Am I selecting the wrong filters?
Does anyone have a breakdown on new jobs by state in the purple states?
Does anyone have a breakdown on Households that the now have a worker and didn’t used to have one?
Does anyone have a breakdown on extended family that used to bailout their jobless in-law to keep peace in the family and now don’t need to?
Most important for voters is the votes of those who had jobs and were supporting the jobless in-laws.

Does anyone have numbers on the number, percentage or profile of jobless workers from the jobless Blue urban north who are now in Georgia and Texas and will determine the fate of congressional districts, if not the state? How are these immigrants swinging?

My unstatistical anecdotal experience in Georgia is that most Blue urban workers now in Red states have not compared jobless Democrats to Plenty of jobs in Republican areas. And the Recpublicans, Conservatives, AFP, Heritage, CATo, etal are doing nothing to educate and stimulate the question.

But is my experience anecdotal? Who is evangelizing?


8 posted on 10/15/2019 3:15:09 PM PDT by spintreebob
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To: dsrtsage

Economy is the tool that will make or break Trump - he’s pumping as hard as he can to keep the bubble inflated until the election but the Dems will make a major effort to burst it next year some time, which would give us President Warren, second coming of FDR.


9 posted on 10/15/2019 3:28:04 PM PDT by Glenmore
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To: spintreebob

Search keywords “jobs” and “hiring” here on FR.


10 posted on 10/15/2019 3:45:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the mainland US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

In this upcoming election, turnout is less important than who is counting the ballots...paper or electronic.
I believe the left is pulling out ALL of the stops on the voter fraud front. I am convinced they will be stuffing ballots, controlling the count, and we will be finding bags and bundles of ballots in EVERY closely contested precinct, across the country.

Just sayin’...


11 posted on 10/15/2019 4:24:50 PM PDT by PubliusMM (RKBA; a matter of fact, not opinion. Mr Trump, we've got your six.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It depends if a lot of the voters that don’t normally vote who voted for Trump get complacent since the economy turned around. I think a lot of the Trump voters weren’t typical broken glass types. I guess we will see. In any case I can’t see the minority turnout surging for this group of dem stiffs and that was pretty much the difference between the turnout between Obama and Clinton.

Freegards


12 posted on 10/15/2019 4:34:52 PM PDT by Ransomed
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