Posted on 10/10/2018 6:03:04 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot
GOP was ALWAYS likely to gain in the Senate, anyone who understands the most rudimentary things about US politics can look at the fall Senator map and knowing nothing else other than that, tell you, DEMS will lose seats in the fall election, and that was before the Kavanaugh fiasco.
Kind of like Krugman and so many others yelling sell, sell, sell, last November only to be so wrong it wasn't funny.
So I ask, and it is not investment advice, what might happen in the House holds and or small gains, we kick arse in the Senate, and impeachment comes off the table and clears the lanes to a victory in 2020 which means the Trump Administrations economic rules and legislation stays in place until 2024.
How do the markets respond to that on 11/7/18? guesses anyone? Are my series of questions flawed?
I still expect 6+ in the Senate... Sadly the GOP’s messaging for the upper midwest is TERRIBLE, so it could be higher, if the GOP had a bloody clue how to sell itself in places it doesn’t have a registration advantage..
Yesterday I got an automated poll call from DCCC. Admittedly, I answered it in a way to screw with them.\
I answered that I was female.
I answered that I approved of Donald Trump
I answered that I was planning on voting for the incumbent GOP guy
Now the fun part
I answered that I had voted for Hillary in the last election
I answered that I was college educated
BOOM, immediately the auto robot voice told me that my entry was invalid and to make another selection. When I made the same selection it disconnected.
Repeat after me: “There never WAS a blue wave.”
Don’t kid yourself, there is a blue wave coming. We will lose House seats, enough to flip the House, doubt it...
The GOP House leadership is basically sitting on their asses...
These guys don’t consider telling the truth.
For them, it’s all about manipulating the behavior of the voters.
If you believe it wasn’t there, you are deceiving yourself.
The Blue Wave was indeed VERY real... but it wasn’t that AMERICA was hating Trump, and embracing left wing or democrats.. it was driven by Democrat enthusiasm, and apathy within the GOP and the Middle....
Look at any of the special elections and you will find an almost constant reality. Dems were getting near presidential year turnouts, while the GOP was only seeing midterm level turnouts. The GOP was winning the majority of the races because they were mostly held in districts where the GOP had such an advantage that GOP miterm level turnouts were higher than Dem presidential year turnouts.
The GOP was heading for a loss of the house, but the Dems very public meltdown and ugliness in the Kavanaugh fiasco, basically wiped out ANY chance of the GOP and the Middle remaining apathetic... now the GOP and more importantly the MIDDLE are just as engaged and motivated as the left...
The Dems literally shot themselves in the face with their behavior during the Kavanaugh hearings... The Senate was NEVER in play, just based on the map... but they literally took themselves from a position of almost certainly winning the house back, to not a chance in hell they will take the house, and now may even wind up LOSING seats.
See 89, without the Self Inflicted Wound of the Kavanaugh hearings.. the GOP was losing the house.... Now, not a chance in hell the house gets lost.
Senate was never in play.
You are what I called a “scared” Republican. It is the same every election year. The Dems start out in front and magically the race(s) “tightens” up the last week before the election. LOL! Some will never get it.
Scared Republican?? Hardly, you are welcome to search my over 20 years on this site...
I am not basing my statements on the typical election year cycle polling... Did you even read what I wrote?
Go look at EVERY special election, and you will see that TURNOUT in nearly all of them, the Dems were turning out Presidential year numbers while the GOP was doing typical midterm levels...
That’s NOT typical polling flaws or biases, that’s real, legitimate enthusiasm differentials. Up until the Kavanaugh fiasco, the Dems enthusiasm advantage was real, proven and the GOP honestly was doing NOTHING to counter it... The Kavanaugh hearings handed the GOP one of the greatest gifts in politics in a LONG LONG TIME...
Fortunately for the GOP the DEMS just shot themselves in the HEAD with a shotgun.... They managed to do something the GOP themselves can’t seem to do... fully engage not only the GOP base.. but to Engage and anger the middle...
The Dems just guaranteed they won’t take the house with their behavior in the Kavanaugh circus... but without that, you better believe the GOP was heading toward losing the house.
You can turn out midterm levels, when your opponent is turning out Presidential year numbers, which the Dems have been doing in EVERY special election since 2016, and not lose more than 23 seats... Too many purple and pink districts.
If you think I am a “scared” republican, you need to go read over 20 years of postings... I didn’t ONCE talk about POLLING data, I talked about previous actual turnout... rolling eyes.
Media using bad pollster to shape election results. Cause it worked so well in 2016.
Thank you LS. Good information!!!
I get really tired about hearing about Romney. He betrayed us, he gave up. He should have won, but didn’t have the stomach to fight. And many on FR didn’t think Romney was going to win because he had stopped campaigning the last week.
Thanks Robert A Cook PE.
I'm looking at 10-12 senate pickups. If I'm wrong by 20%, I can live with it:)
Yeah, sure. Whatever, Sabato & Todd......
:-)
Sadly, Larry Sabato is going to have tons of broken egg all over his face come the evening of Mid-Term Election Day, Tuesday, November 6, 2018.
Ya know...in 2016, he was so badly off the mark worshiping Hillary Clinton...he had to hide for six months, before he surfaced and apologized how off the mark he actually was.
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