Posted on 09/16/2016 11:23:09 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Think your one vote doesn't really matter? According to experts, it will — a lot.
Hey Pennsylvania voters: you're important. Like, really important.
It's no secret Pennsylvania is an extremely-coveted battleground state for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump this fall. But some experts are now predicting the entire 2016 presidential election could essentially boil down to how we vote here in the Keystone State.
Is that enough pressure for you? (By the way, the deadline to register to vote is Oct. 11.)
In a piece published Friday by the New York Times, expert David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research who operates PredictWise, says his research shows Pennsylvania looks to be the most likely state to tip the election.
Here's how Rothschild explains it, according to the New York Times:
"Every day, I run 100,000 simulations of the election. I use the probability of each state going for Clinton or Trump, then I mix that with a correlation matrix that defines the relationships between the states. And every day since late July, Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won by the candidate who wins the election. Currently, there are just 6 percent of scenarios where Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and just 3 percent of scenarios where Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election."
Rothschild says he'll be looking closely at polling in Pennsylvania over the coming weeks as an indicator of the election outcome. In recent weeks, Trump has gained some ground on Clinton in other swing states, such as Flordia and Ohio. The Democrat is holding onto a lead in Pennsylvania, however.
The RealClearPolitics.com polling average in Pennsylvania shows Clinton with a six-point lead over her opponent. The most recent poll, conducted by Quinnipiac between Aug. 29 and Sept. 7, shows Clinton with a five-point lead.
However, that's down from a double-digit lead she held over Trump in a Franklin and Marshall College poll taken between July 29 and Aug. 1.
For weeks, pundits and political experts have been keeping a watchful eye on Pennsylvania, specifically the Philadelphia suburbs. In a report last month, the Times called the Philadelphia suburbs, a "bellwether" in this year's election.
That piece included input from several Bucks County voters, including one who said Trump is "talking about the issues everyone is pussyfooting around."
The candidates and surrogates have been pervasive in Pennsylvania, with both campaigns making the Keystone State a frequent stop. Just this week, Donald Trump came to the Philadelphia suburbs and President Barack Obama, campaigning for Clinton, was in Philadelphia.
Trump's running mate, Mike Pence, was also in Pennsylvania this week, holding a rally at Kenworth of Pennsylvania, just outside of Scranton.
Election Day is Nov. 8.
Panic has set in with NYT. They are just trying hold PA for Hillary, the rest of the battlegrounds and leaning blue are dropping to Trump now. If Trump does well in first debate we could see repubs come out of woodwork looking for coat tails. Any chance of us getting 60 in the senate?
I just hope Trump’s margin of victory will be larger than the dems’ margin of vote fraud. With Philly and other cities voting at 100-110-115% of registered dem voters, it’s going to be real close.
At this point, either PA or VA could put him over the top. Not sure which he’ll have a better shot at. Dealing with the lib spillover from DC or the crooked machine in Philly!
I just hope Trump’s margin of victory will be larger than the dems’ margin of vote fraud.
That is the bottom line.
We must all do our part to get out the vote in any and all ways we possibly can.
If 110% of the registered voters in Philly vote for Hillary, Trump will be thrilled — he will make the most of that and he WILL be president or there will be rivers of blood.
Voter fraud is a ripe fruit and a strong man who won’t tolerate the fraud can pluck that thing right off the tree.
this is like climate models
... Ok ... it is time ... TO Send ... My ... Trump so more MONEY.
We need to show support and make $$$$$. Contributions now -— cause the Dems are gonna get really dirty now — more so than usual ... Their queen bee is upset and sending out her drones.
The Trump campaign will spend more money on ads in PA next week than any other state.
Also the Rebuilding America Now pac...https://rebuildingamericanow.com/...is carpetbombing PA with their “American Steel” ad next week.
I’m good for $50.
“We need to show support and make $$$$$. Contributions now”
This https://rebuildingamericanow.com/
Rebuild America Now pac is run by Governor Rick Scott and has produced the best of the Pro-Trump ads. It’s a very good use of your donation dollars; they have been running ads in Florida for 2 months and they are targeting PA now.
“Supporting Rebuilding America Now is one of the best ways to stop Hillary Clinton and help elect Donald Trump our next president!“
– Gov. Mike Pence
Will Philadelphia have 125% voter turnout again this year?
As I’ve said several times, but it is particularly true for PA:
We need to act on this and not just talk about it. Decent people need to volunteer for GOTV (get out the vote) efforts, get trained and volunteer as poll watchers, and otherwise make sure election fraud is as difficult as possible for the evil thugs on the left.
If we lose, this will be the last election ever that matters in what used to be the Untied States, so the socialists are sure to go all out this time. We need to make sure the Trump margin is large enough, and that fraud is difficult enough, that their cheating will not matter.
I will be in PA on Election Day for GOTV efforts. I live in Maryland, but GOTV in my home state cannot make a difference. If the People’s Republic of Maryland is that close, then Trump has a landslide in more than enough states to win. Anyone on FR who lives near PA should seriously consider crossing state lines to help get more rural and conservative suburban voters to the polls. Similarly, we should consider getting trained and working as poll watchers, especially in urban areas. Whatever else we might want to do on Election Day, it’s not as important as even the smallest effort we might make in PA.
Wonder how many Black Panthetswill be at polling places to intimidate White voters? They know the Dept. of Injustice will ignore them.
There are 500 million privately-owned guns in this country, very few of which belong to the Black Panthers.
The more people I talk to, the more clear it is that Trump’s biggest hurdle is getting those outside the basket to take him seriously as presidential material. As he does that more and more, it will snowball.
The playing of the press on the birther thing was brilliance.
Y’know, if PA is play, then Hillary! is probably in trouble. That to Philadephia and vote fraud, it has been pretty reliably Democrat.
I wonder how many >100% districts for Hillary we’re going to see in Philadelphia this election?
Where our moto is ‘Vote early, vote often’.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.