Posted on 06/08/2016 7:44:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
f Donald Trump's presidential campaign were functional, this would be Economy Week for Team Trump. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee and his surrogates would be wielding the disappointing May jobs report as a cudgel to bash the lackluster "Obama-Clinton" recovery. After all, polls say jobs and the economy remain voters' biggest concern. And it's an issue in which Trump has a big lead over Clinton. A new Gallup poll gives the famed businessman a 10-point edge on "the economy" and a seven-point lead on "employment and jobs."
But Trump isn't talking about the economy. Instead, he's attacking the Mexican heritage of the Trump University lawsuit judge, speculating on the potential bias of Muslim judges, and instructing his surrogates to attack any and all critics as racists.
Trump seems unable to see it, but a lousy economy remains the greatest threat to Clinton's White House hopes, and thus the greatest aid for Trump's presidential bid. The anemic recovery hardly seems a tailwind for Clinton's campaign. A year ago, Yale economist Ray Fair, well known for using the economy to predict elections, said continued sluggish-though-improving GDP growth implied "a fairly large loss for the Democrats."
Since then, the economy hasn't picked up. Fair has noted that the economy, "in terms of the growth rate of GDP, is clearly not a plus for the Democrats in 2016. This could, of course, be trumped by other factors." Ah yes, economist humor. But he's right. Non-economic factors matter, too — like if one major candidate suffers from maniacal narcissism and a proclivity to utter bigoted comments. Millions upon millions of voters may ultimately decide Trump is simply unfit for office even if real disposable income and the labor force participation rate stay steady but meh.
But what if the economy doesn't stay in this same-old, same-old mode? What if is worsens sharply?
That's why Team Clinton should pay close attention to that jobs report, even if Trump isn't. Job growth has slowed sharply, a possible harbinger of deeper economic trouble. Not only did the jobs report show a meager 38,000 net jobs created last month, but totals for March and April were also revised considerably lower. Over the past three months, then, job gains have averaged 116,000 per month. That's about half the average monthly gain since 2010. Barclays recently explained why this is worrisome: Essentially, this sort of molasses-slow job growth signals "that risks of a near- to medium-term recession have risen."
That's essentially the same conclusion from JPMorgan's economic team. JPMorgan's model doesn't look at job growth, but other factors such as the unemployment rate, auto sales, and consumer sentiment. And based on those variables and others, the bank sees a 36 percent chance of a recession within a year, the highest so far during the seven-year-old expansion.
The risk of recession is increasing, Still, it's not exactly likely between now and Election Day.
But here's the thing none of these models factor in: the impact of Trump himself. He could become his very own October Surprise through what I have termed the Trump Doom Loop — the negative feedback effects among markets, politics, and the U.S. economy. The better Trump does in the polls, the more people around the world will worry, and the worse it will be for economic confidence... and thus the better Trump does in the polls.
For instance, in a recent op-ed, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers predicted Trump's tax and trade policies would cause "a protracted recession to begin within 18 months" of his election. If the polls stay close, and if Summers' opinion is widely shared, the Trump Doom Loop could begin. People will worry about the real possibility of President Trump. The economy will tank because of that plummeting confidence and rising uncertainty. And Trump will (falsely, but effectively) point to the tanking economy as a failure of the Democrats.
Desperate voters, already pessimistic about the future, might be willing to gamble on Trump in that case — despite qualms about his character, or lack of it.
Second guessing Donald Trump has proved so far to be a discouraging and unprofitable business.
“If????”
Hahahaha, we never got out of recession, and the MSM will notice and start reporting on that fact on 1/20/2017
IF???
they cheated the numbers last time.. Expect booming job numbers in the fall even though it will be lies
But but but it is Summer!
As near as I can tell, we have been in a recession since 2007 or so.
If Hillary keeps promising to give the country to fraudulently documented foreigners, Trump will be the next President.
I suppose no one has qualms about Hillary's character ... ?
We had one of the worst job numbers released last week..but of course the media didnt report it..if this becomes a pattern than eventually the Clinton News Media will have to report it, they will try to spin it in a positive light but it wont work
Everybody knows Obola has the economy booby-trapped to implode the minute he leaves office.
Drive-bys salivate, salivate. Actually, it probably will, and like RR, Trump will weather it and make us stronger.
If the market DOESN’T tank b4 November?
Well, the ones not planning to vote for her have qualms. Her supporters, however, don't care about character.
I actually think it’s the opposite: if it looks like Trump is going to be President, they will let it slip into recession.
Wrong, James Pethokoukis, whoever the hell you are.
Trump rightfully expressed concern about a so-called judge presiding over a civil suit against Mr. Trump. A “judge” who is a member of La Raza, a racist, anti-American group.
La Raza’s founder: “We have got to eliminate the white man. We have got to kill him.”
La Raza....”For those of the race, everything; for those not of the race, nothing.”
Anyone think this guy will be a fair to a man who wants to build a border wall and deport illegal aliens?
What if a white judge was a member of the Ku Klux Klan? Would he fairly judge a case where the plaintiff was African-American?
In the 8th year of Bill Clinton’s Presidency the NASDAQ crashed in a big way, losing 78% of its value. If that hadn’t happened, Al Gore would’ve won in 2000, considering how close it was.
In the 8th year of GWB’s Presidency, the economy crashed harder than it had since the Great Depression due to highly irresponsible bank lending practices, encouraged by lib Dem policies (the CRA). The result: President Barack Hussein Obama, Muslim socialist lunatic.
I’m just waiting for the next big economic shoe to drop, and there are plenty of candidates for it. The result will be President Trump.
Despite all the propaganda, most Americans realize we have been in an economic depression since Obama took office.
“Maybe the globalist anti-US sovereignty crowd thinks its important to prop up the market before the election - to give the illusion of a better economy.”
Yep. And cook the numbers to (try to) make it appear the real economy is roaring due to...an anticipated Hillary victory of course!.
I believe that if Trump wins in November, obama’s scorched-Earth policy will commence just before Christmas. If Hillary wins the lies, smoke and mirrors will continue as long as it can until it all finally collapses.
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