Posted on 05/03/2016 1:48:57 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump may be a runaway train. He has blasted through his 50 percent ceiling, outperforming his polls and winning a clear majority in the last six states to cast ballots. All that success occurred in the Northeast, however, so heres the question: Is Trump wrapping up this nomination, or is he just really strong in the Northeast?
Well get some answers in Indiana on Tuesday. Its a culturally conservative state where many political observers (including yours truly) thought Ted Cruz had a good shot at coalescing the anti-Trump vote. Indiana is also, in terms of demographics, slightly below average for Trump. In other words, the #StopTrump movement, if its at all serious, should win the Hoosier State. And yet, Trump leads in most of the polling there.
So how should we interpret the final results in Indiana? Lets walk through the three possible scenarios.
A clear Trump win
Our latest polls-only forecast has Trump winning Indiana 46 percent to Cruzs 36 percent. And one of the most recent surveys, taken by Marist College, found Trump leading 49 percent to 34 percent. If the results in Indiana look anything like that, and Trump wins close to a majority, the Republican primary is probably over. In all honesty, any Trump victory probably means hes going to be the nominee. Sure, Trump cannot possibly clinch the GOP nomination by winning the 57 delegates at stake in Indiana, but primary math is sometimes more than just delegates. Its about demographics.
A Trump win would indicate that his bulldozing of the competition in the Northeast was not simply due to favorable geography. Not only is Trump doing better than our original projections had him in the Northeast, hes even exceeding them in a more demographically neutral state like Indiana. Looking forward, California, too, would be a demographically fair fight for Cruz, and recent polling has shown a Trump surge in the Golden State. If Trump wins Indiana, there arent a ton of reasons to think hed lose California. And Trump would be all but guaranteed to reach 1,237 delegates if he wins California by anywhere close to the over 20 percentage point lead he now has in the state.
The other big Indiana problem for Cruz is that hes losing even as John Kasichs share of the vote is declining. Our latest Indiana average has Kasich down to just 14.0 percent of the vote, which is lower than where he was polling on the eve of Cruzs victory in the Wisconsin primary. One of the big keys to stopping Trump was for the anti-Trump vote to coalesce. The campaigns tried to help that process along by announcing a Cruz-Kasich alliance, in which Kasich stopped campaigning in Indiana, basically ceding the state to Cruz. But that doesnt seem to be working. If Trump wins Indiana with Kasich pulling little of the vote, itll be a sign that the anti-Trump coordination isnt going to cut it.
But even if Kasichs share of the vote doesnt erode much more, and Trump wins Indiana because of a split in the anti-Trump vote, Im not sure the implications are any better for #StopTrump. That would suggest only that voters didnt play the tactical game that Kasich and Cruz wanted them to; either they didnt know what to do or werent willing to cooperate. Neither is good news for the anti-Trump bloc.
A clear Cruz win
You could also title this section what I thought was going to happen in Indiana. A Cruz win is what the demographics originally suggested would happen in the Hoosier State. If you look at my colleague Nate Silvers delegate projections last month, he had Trump losing the majority of Indianas delegates on his way to finishing short of 1,237 nationwide. Thats why Indiana has been the focal point of the Cruz campaign. And our polls-plus model still gives Cruz a 17 percent chance of winning Indiana, so its not like hes a super long shot.
If Cruz were to win the state by, say, 5 percentage points or more, it would suggest that whatever was going on in the Northeast primaries may not be transferable to other regions. Perhaps, Trump romped in the Northeast because turnout was so low, and if Republican turnout is strong in future contests (as it was through most of the early primary campaign), Trump can be stopped. A Cruz win would also show that when anti-Trump groups concentrate their efforts, they can stop Trump. Very little money was spent against The Donald in the Northeast; a lot of anti-Trump money has been spent in Indiana.
Perhaps most important for those hoping to stop Trump, a Cruz win in Indiana would be the first sign that the pro-Trump trend of late can be halted. Trump is sitting at an all-time high in FiveThirtyEights national polling average. Cruzs own popularity, meanwhile, has taken a major hit nationally; he registered his first net negative favorability ratings among Republicans in Gallups surveys. At the same time, there has been reporting over the past week that Republican leaders and delegates are resigning themselves to a Trump nomination. The polls and the stories paint a picture of a party wanting to move on from the primary, anxious to take on Hillary Clinton.
A victory by Cruz in Indiana would, at the very least, forestall the crowning of Trump. We would have to wonder if recent polls, both nationally and in California, are overstating Trumps strength. Party elites might also interpret the results as evidence that voters havent tired of the primary fight just yet. Finally, Trumps path to 1,237 is still tenuous enough that a setback in Indiana would put the whole enterprise in jeopardy. Talk of a contested convention, which has subsided a bit, would flare back up.
(AUDIO-AT-LINK)
An ambiguous result
If the results in Indiana are close, predicting the effects on the race are more difficult. A close Trump win, for example, would have fairly clear implications from a delegate standpoint: Trump would probably get to 1,237, if for no other reason than winning Indiana gives Trump at least 30 delegates.1 A Trump win, even a modest one, would also feed the medias appetite for Trump momentum stories. Still, a narrow Trump edge would also suggest that there is a large segment of the Republican Party that Trump hasnt won over yet, and that Cruzs hard campaigning helped close what some internal polls indicated was a large deficit.
A close Cruz win, on the other hand, would probably elicit the exact opposite press reaction. Cruz might be dubbed the comeback kid, and he would survive until California by having denied Trump at least 33 delegates2 in Indiana. Yet, Cruz winning only narrowly especially if Trump clears 40 percent would be an underperformance relative to where we thought Indiana would land a few weeks ago. It would indicate that the upward trend in Trumps support, while felt most in the Northeast, is also evident in other regions of the country.
Three possibles. One likely. Go Trump!!!
Captain obvious has all the bases covered. lol
Like I've said, you're GOPe or government.
Even through the name calling and stupidity that has infected this site I have decided to hang around just so I can be here when two years into Trump’s term and I can watch the “but but but we thought he was conservative...” crowd.
There could be an ambiguous win. Where one candidate gets less than 50% of the vote buts wins the district getting the 3 delegates for that district. Repeat this for every district and the candidate gets all the delegates with less than 50% of the vote.
Despite its conservative cultural reputation, IN has elected many awful U.S. Senators since they turned out Homer Capehart in 1962 in favor of the first Bayh.
Did you hear Rush Monday saying someone (I missed who, but it must be a major pundit.) believes Mrs. Bill will win all 50 states.
I don’t think Trump is conservative in all things, but he is in the one that matters.
We must conserve the country first.
I am almost to the point I don’t care since as usual real conservatives are helpless to do anything but hold their noses yet again (which I may not do - three times in a row might be too much for me to bear). I just want to be here when the Trumpeteers have that oops moment.
He will get nothing done. You heard it hear. Congress will not work with him so unless Congress is wholly replaced, which America has never done, watch the status quo.
His only alternative is EO’s and we have seen how well those are liked, but I guess it is okay as long as it is your dictator doing the EO.
These idiots keep pretending that 1237 is necessary.
It would be best, but being far ahead of the second place candidate also secures the nomination for Trump.
The Party can’t blatantly ignore the voters.
Of course the media prefers a story with less truth and more drama.
You think unmitigated nasty is conservative?
I don’t necessarily think Trump is conservative, but I think he loves his country and does not want to see her destroyed.
And I cannot say the same thing about politicians who said that they are conservatives and then got elected, went to Washington and stabbed America and Americans in their back as thanks.
We shall soon see which outcome it will be.
A old Native Indian(veteran of Korea) E4, in 1959 used to steal Aqua Velva from guys in our barracks. He didn’t use it as prescribed @ link.
********************************
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aqua_Velva_(cocktail)
We already had that oops moment time and time again by electing the GOP.
Guess you must not have been paying attention.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.