Morris says that Cruz/Kasich could get 33 in NY.
I know you think 15, but have a look at the CDs that Morris picks
It is important to keep creepy Cruz under 20 percent overall in New York then trump gets them all anyway.
I think it’s more likely going to be about the 10 range with the range from 5-15.
What is left out of the calculus here is the margin that Trump has. Assuming he breaks 50%, he should sweep every CD in a 3-way race.
To get to 30, Trump would have to be held under 50% and lose in a handful of CDs.
Trump is an icon here and even in these “minority districts,” you’re going to find a few people that work for him. Cruz should be a non-factor. Kasich could be a bit of a wild card.