Posted on 03/08/2016 10:00:07 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
By all accounts, Ted Cruz had a great day on Saturday, scoring surprise wins over Trump in Kansas and Maine (by fairly comfortable margins), tying him in Louisiana, and narrowly losing Kentucky. Cruz narrowly closed the delegate gap with Trump and just as importantly increased the space between himself and the other non-Trump candidates.
Today, Ted Cruz needs to do three things in order to keep his momentum going, in no particular order.
1. Beat Marco Rubio (and John Kasich) in Michigan. Donald Trump is probably going to win Michigan. Cruz's strategy in Michigan is to beat two guys who have been saying for months that Michigan is the sort of state they would both do better in than Cruz: Marco Rubio and John Kasich. The knock on Cruz has always been that after Super Tuesday, the map shifts to more non-evangelical, non-conservative states. Rubio and Kasich have been saying all along that they would beat Cruz in states like Michigan. If Cruz beats them both, he scores a convincing win for his narrative that he is the best anti-Trump candidate across the board. Of course, in Kasich's case, it might not matter, since Kasich is a deluded fool, but to some of Kasich's voters, it might. And it definitely will to Rubio voters.
2. Win Idaho. No one knows what is going on in Idaho, but Cruz has been campaigning hard there with the expectation of a win. In fact, Cruz gave his victory speech on Saturday from a rally in Cour d'Alene. Idaho is a primary, but it is closed. Cruz needs at least one outright win today to keep the narrative "I am able to consistently beat Donald Trump" going, and Idaho is probably his best shot. Idaho's a small state, but there's important symbolic value in adding outright state wins to the tally.
3. Win (or effectively tie) Mississippi. As much as Cruz will not admit it, the loss of several deep South states stung his chances against Donald Trump in a serious way. The worst losses of his campaign were the shellackings he took in Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia. The collapse of Rubio allowed Cruz to turn that around in Louisiana and Kentucky to draw very close to Trump. It would be an enormous feather in Cruz's cap if he could claim an outright win in the Deep South. Probably, he wants this to happen worse than anything today, although it is the least likely thing to happen. At the very least, he needs to claim a delegate tie (or close to it) like he got in Louisiana.
Wild Card: Hawaii. Who even has the vaguest clue what is going to happen in Hawaii? I sort of assume Trump is going to win because it's a pretty liberal state but I assumed the same thing about Maine. Maybe Cruz wins? Maybe Kasich wins? Maybe Reagan's corpse wins? I think if Cruz is even close to Trump in Hawaii he gets to claim another win.
Thank you for your post. I read it twice. It is so rare anymore to come across a post on FR that is truly informed and accurate. Thanks again.
See 538 path to nomination. Trump got whate he needed. He is only one still on target
Naivete beyond most.
Do you really believe that?
Besides, many Mormons aren't overly fond of Baptists, of which Ted is.
That the only 2 decent republicans ever in the race find themselves the last two standing warms my heart.
*smiles*
Based on the amount of money spent on attack ads Trump should be a smoking ruin.
He’s definitely the Teflon Don, and in that way, he is like Reagan and Clinton. Nothing really stuck to them in the minds of most Americans.
If Cruz' campaign comingled money with the RNC, that is a criminal offense, easily traced and people would go to jail.
The inanity, the unseriousness and complete ignorance of some that post on FR is jaw dropping. Campaign finance is in the news a lot and you should know better. I would suggest Google it, but I have a feeling you wouldn't understand.
Just look at what Cruz is saying and what the PAC ads are saying.
The inanity, the unseriousness and complete ignorance of some that post on FR is jaw dropping.
Yes, I agree, anyone who actually believes that somehow there is merely a coincidence between what Cruz and the PAC ads are saying is a little off.
The issue you raised in a conspiratorial way, is that Cruz had hired Neil Bush to help manage the GOPe money. Neil Bush is managing the money that only Cruz raises and can't manage and can't comingle money from any other source. If any campaign did that, those would be some serious felonies and some serious jail time. You accused the Cruz campaign of illegally comingling money. Now, you are talking about ads? Change the subject when you don't know what you are talking about.
I'm pretty sure Kasich will win in Ohio and Trump will win Florida. Rubio is certainly out, but Kasich mmmmm...realisticly he can't win.
For me the choice between the two is clear.....since our nation was created as a nation under God our leader should understand this clearly, because without God part of this equation to turn our country around it will not work....we are as never before sliding out of his will as a nation. Also, we are a Constitutional Republic and our leaders need to return to the Constitution and implement it with actions.
Anything short of this will only be a temporary fix, if that, til the next election.
For me the choice between the two is clear.....since our nation was created as a nation under God our leader should understand this clearly, because without God part of this equation to turn our country around it will not work....we are as never before sliding out of his will as a nation. Also, we are a Constitutional Republic and our leaders need to return to the Constitution and implement it with actions.
Anything short of this will only be a temporary fix, if that, til the next election.
Cruz behind around 150,000 votes in one of those states (the one where there has literally been over 7000 anti-Trump ads), and 50,000 in the other. This is not close.
lol.
Amazing.
More winning by losing.
What planet are we on?
It’s all about the delegates bud.
And Cruz lost more ground tonight...
My comment is more about reality and math than it is about preferences.
Neither one is anywhere near 1,200.
Which is why I said “relatively” close.
Percentage wise, last night turned out like this:
Trump - Cruz
MI 38.6 -— 24.9
MS 47.3 -— 36.3
ID 28.1 -— 45.4
HI 42.4 -— 32.7
Trump now has 461 delegates, Cruz has 361.
Cruz is trying to stay within a close enough distance so that when Rubio and Kasich drop out, he believes he will get enough from those two to make it very close.
He may be right.
Whether he can actually catch up or not is another matter.
My feeling is that if Trump wins both FL (almost a sure thing) and Ohio (less sure) then he will not be able to be caught.
If he does not win Ohio, then there is a possibility...which is what Cruz is hoping for.
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