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Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
Five Thirty Eight Politics ^ | January 19, 2016 | David Wasserman

Posted on 01/19/2016 6:07:25 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

In a few weeks' time, it's possible that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz will steamroll their way through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and dominate the so-called "SEC Primary" -- the collection of 13 mostly Southern states that will vote on March 1 -- horrifying many GOP elected officials and depriving any other candidate of a night to celebrate.

Yet even if that happens, it's still possible that Marco Rubio (or another more establishment-friendly candidate) could end up with the nomination, thanks to quirks of the GOP's complex delegate math.

The GOP's primary calendar is surprisingly front-loaded with states friendly to insurgents like Trump and Cruz. But because of Republican National Committee rules, all but one of these states will award their delegates on a proportional basis, intentionally making it difficult for any one candidate to build a durable or commanding lead.

Instead, Florida and Ohio, which tend to support more conventional Republicans, are likelier to shape the race's destiny than Iowa or South Carolina. That's because they will award a whopping 99 and 72 delegates, respectively, in huge winner-take-all primaries on March 15.....

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Florida; New York; Texas; Campaign News; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2016election; cruz; election2016; florida; marcorubio; rubio; tedruz; trump

1 posted on 01/19/2016 6:07:25 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Near the end it seems more become winner take all vs proportional delegate distribution.

A 33% plurality becomes good as a 70% blowout in some cases.


2 posted on 01/19/2016 6:23:45 PM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

GOPe’s plan:

Step 1: use Palin to decapitate Cruz, so Trump becomes “inevitable”.
Step 2: keep the establishment field open until the liberal States have their primary. Divide.
Step 3: consolidate on one establishment candidate. Time to conquer.
Step 4: constantly hammer Trump until he gets none of the big all-delegate States.
Step 5: Trump’s delegate count will be lower than the establishment candidate’s.
Step 6: The establishment candidate becomes inevitable.
Step 7: Trump bows out. GOPe pays the lip service to prop Trump’s ego.
Step 8: The establishment candidate “reconciles”. Beat Hillary!
Step 9: Lose in a landslide.


3 posted on 01/19/2016 6:25:32 PM PST by sagar
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To: sagar

No establishment plan will work against Trump. He’s gonna win every state in the primary. He came out today and listed about 10 Southern states that just came out with new polls and he’s up by double digits in all of them. Even a Cruz win in Iowa means nothing because Cruz can’t win any other state and that includes Southern states. Trump is destroying him everywhere except Iowa, where it’s tied. The Palin endorsement might be all that’s needed for Trump to carry Iowa. But he doesn’t really need it.


4 posted on 01/19/2016 6:31:03 PM PST by NKP_Vet (In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle,stand like a rock ~ T, Jefferson)
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To: sagar

This just makes me sad.

Should this happen, for the first time in my life I will not vote.


5 posted on 01/19/2016 6:32:26 PM PST by siamesecats (God closes one door, and opens another, to protect us.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I believe this is more wishful thinking...


6 posted on 01/19/2016 6:33:10 PM PST by BlueNgold (May I suggest a very nice 1788 Article V with your supper...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Instead, Florida and Ohio,

The only reason Kasich is in there was to garner support in Ohio and then quit and pledge his delegates to Jeb.

Neither anticipated just how popular Trump would be and how is message would resonate.

7 posted on 01/19/2016 6:35:58 PM PST by DouglasKC (I'm pro-choice when it comes to lion killing....)
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To: NKP_Vet; sagar
No, sagar's listed plan is exactly how the nomination process/election will turn out.

It doesn't matter if you like Trump or Cruz or someone else, Jeb! will be the eventual nominee via bought Republican Convention GOPe Delegates and Super Delegates, who actually choose the eventual winner.

The fix is in and has been for awhile.

Get used to disappointment/treachery.

8 posted on 01/19/2016 6:37:56 PM PST by PROCON (Proud CRUZader!)
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To: PROCON

Since June 16, 2015, the GOP has been playing checkers and Donald Trump has been playing chess. Right now, Trump is playing chess, Mah Jong and doing a crossword puzzle...simultaneously.


9 posted on 01/19/2016 6:41:41 PM PST by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man a subject")
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To: siamesecats

Don’t know if you saw this;

The Untruth About Donald Trump
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3385568/posts

42,000 views in one day.

This guy meticulously destroys all the lying memes about Trump.

Have hope!


10 posted on 01/19/2016 6:43:09 PM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: sagar
I'm not a fan of Trump, but I don't see him playing along with a scenario like that one.

For all his flaws, Trump has exposed most of the GOP contenders as a bunch of dull bores. He has single-handedly exposed Hillary Clinton as the fat, haggard old lesbian she is. And Bill Clinton has hardly even been seen on the campaign trail since Trump scolded his wife for enabling that old pervert.

11 posted on 01/19/2016 6:51:32 PM PST by Alberta's Child (My mama said: "To get things done, you'd better not mess with Major Tom.")
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To: sagar

Early on in 2015, Jeb was supposed to be inevitable. Now he’s barely visible. I don’t think things worked out like the GOPe expected.


12 posted on 01/19/2016 7:01:15 PM PST by Flick Lives (One should not attend even the end of the world without a good breakfast. -- Heinlein)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Before long a lot of people will realized that Trump’s last name is not “andCruz”


13 posted on 01/19/2016 7:07:28 PM PST by bigbob ("Victorious warriors win first ande then go to war" Sun Tzu.)
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To: Flick Lives
In light of how disastrously his brother's administration ended, I'm wondering how much credibility Jeb's campaign ever had in the first place. The GOP establishment had to know that he'd have a slim chance of winning in 2016 even if he was energetic and charismatic, and delivered a message that was popular among party leaders and grassroots alike.
14 posted on 01/19/2016 7:11:25 PM PST by Alberta's Child (My mama said: "To get things done, you'd better not mess with Major Tom.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well after Iowa front loaded for Trump anyway.


15 posted on 01/19/2016 7:13:28 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They need to GIVE IT UP. It’s over. Likely Trump, possibly Cruz, but that’s it, at least for 2016.


16 posted on 01/19/2016 7:16:00 PM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Only problem with that theory is, Rubio and Jebbie are running #3 and #4 in their home state of Florida. That does not point to an establishment candidate winning the nomination.


17 posted on 01/19/2016 7:19:12 PM PST by SamAdams76
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To: sagar

“GOPe’s plan:”

With comments.

“Step 1: use Palin to decapitate Cruz, so Trump becomes inevitable.”

I seriously doubt Palin takes marching orders from that bunch, after what they did to her in 2008. It was her choice to support Trump.

“Step 2: keep the establishment field open until the liberal States have their primary. Divide.”

Agree, but not sure how that helps the GOPe

“Step 3: consolidate on one establishment candidate. Time to conquer.”

They’re having a tough time, now Kasich is popping up his head a bit. It’s hard to see any of the top 4 establishment types dropping out for quite a while.

“Step 4: constantly hammer Trump until he gets none of the big all-delegate States.”

They’ve been doing that for 7 months, hasn’t worked yet.

“Step 5: Trump’s delegate count will be lower than the establishment candidate’s.”

Only if the base decides they really do want Amnesty. Don’t see that happening.

“Step 6: The establishment candidate becomes inevitable.”

Same as above.

“Step 7: Trump bows out. GOPe pays the lip service to prop Trump’s ego.”

They won’t get that far.

“Step 8: The establishment candidate “reconciles”. Beat Hillary!”

If your scenario does work out, I agree, all our side will be run on is fear of the Democrat (for the 3 time in row).

“Step 9: Lose in a landslide.”

If the above does happen, I agree...we will get creamed, yet again.


18 posted on 01/19/2016 7:23:56 PM PST by BobL (Who cares? He's going to build a wall and stop this invasion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

19 posted on 01/23/2016 11:43:08 AM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s obvious Trump’s ahead. Look at all of the Trump attack threads on Free Republic today. Shows desperation by the Cruz supporters posting those threads. Ratio is at least 10/1 (10 attack threads on Trump for every 1 attack thread on Cruz).


20 posted on 01/23/2016 11:47:26 AM PST by r_barton (We the People of the United States...)
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