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Why polls are ridiculous … until they’re not
PBS Newshour ^ | May 29, 2015 | Gwen Ifill, Co-Anchor & Managing Editor

Posted on 05/29/2015 1:37:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Yippee. The Republican race is taking shape! The latest poll conducted by Connecticut’s Quinnipiac University says so.

There’s former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Florida Senator Marco Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. There’s also Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. (I use their titles to help you keep them straight. As the race gets even more crowded, you will thank me for this.)

In the poll, each man clocks in at a mere 10 percent.

Not excited? Look deeper, people. When the Quinnipiac pollsters ask which Republican would run best against Democrat Hillary Clinton — all of a sudden Rand Paul and Rubio leap to the head of the pack.

And there’s more. When you look at the runners up — the candidate voters would most likely choose as a backup — Texas Senator Ted Cruz joins the popular kids.

For now, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former business executive Carly Fiorina, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal score pretty dismally. Businessman Donald Trump actually comes in first — among voters who say there is “no way” they would vote for him.

And, hey, it could be worse. No one even asked about former New York Governor George Pataki, who is actually an announced candidate.

So many numbers to digest. If they’re lucky, ten of these candidates get to crowd onto a debate stage late this summer — a year in advance of the nominating convention — to elbow one another aside.

But here’s why it’s all so ridiculous.

We don’t have national primaries. Each of these candidates will have to slug it out state by state to even make it to their nominating convention. In the case of the crowded GOP field, they will have to slug it out state by state to even make it onto a debate stage.

This is why we have the spectacle of Fiorina popping up outside Clinton events to denounce a woman she is not even running against yet. Jesse James robbed banks because that’s where the money was; Fiorina stalks Hillary Clinton because that’s where the cameras are.

So it’s OK to read the polls. I do. But there is this caution. Ignore the horse race for now. Except to the degree it dictates chances for survival, it is ridiculous. People with deep pockets read those polls to make sure they are making a wise investment. And people who send cameras to cover press conferences do too. All of this dictates outcome. The rest of us can take a deep breath.

There is plenty of time to decide whether the polls — or the debates alone — will tell the story. Until then, read them — there will be many — but keep a grain of salt handy at all times.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: bush; randpaul; rubio; tedcruz
If we could see the true polls, the internal ones, we'd all be laughing our heads off at these nonsensical public polls.
1 posted on 05/29/2015 1:37:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I hope you’re right 2nDV, we need Cruz!


2 posted on 05/29/2015 1:41:18 PM PDT by erod (Chicago Conservative)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

We need to be focused on what the retards in Congress are doing for the next 18 mo.


3 posted on 05/29/2015 1:42:15 PM PDT by Paladin2 (Ive given up on aphostrophys and spell chek on my current device...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
5 paragraphs in to see her mention Ted Cruz.

She began her droll piece with "Yippie!" Is that her party affiliation?


4 posted on 05/29/2015 1:47:27 PM PDT by a fool in paradise (Funny how Hollywood's 'No Nukes' crowd has been silent during Obama's Iranian nuclear negotiations.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Jesse James robbed banks because that’s where the money was”

When a writer is that ignorant there is no reason to take it seriously.


5 posted on 05/29/2015 1:51:28 PM PDT by ifinnegan
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To: ifinnegan

Most PBS/NPR types live inside a cocoon that is inside a cocoon. But guess what. Some on the other side also live very sheltered lives and are clueless to the real world out there.

Most people choose a favorite, not based on ideology, but based on who appears to be friendly and their friend.

Each candidate has to ask: Self, am I in this to win it? Will I do what is necessary to win it? Or am I in it to shift the debate and legitimize certain issues that are currently beyond the pale to even discuss?

To win it does not mean to move left. To win it means to smile more, kiss more babies, appear friendly. Ideologues spouting ideology, even the correct ideology, do not appear friendly.


6 posted on 05/29/2015 4:25:29 PM PDT by spintreebob
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To: ifinnegan

Most PBS/NPR types live inside a cocoon that is inside a cocoon. But guess what. Some on the other side also live very sheltered lives and are clueless to the real world out there.

Most people choose a favorite, not based on ideology, but based on who appears to be friendly and their friend.

Each candidate has to ask: Self, am I in this to win it? Will I do what is necessary to win it? Or am I in it to shift the debate and legitimize certain issues that are currently beyond the pale to even discuss?

To win it does not mean to move left. To win it means to smile more, kiss more babies, appear friendly. Ideologues spouting ideology, even the correct ideology, do not appear friendly.


7 posted on 05/29/2015 4:25:29 PM PDT by spintreebob
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If you get polled on Any subject,
LIE


8 posted on 05/29/2015 6:22:18 PM PDT by Joe Boucher ( Obammy is a lie, a mooselimb and pond scum.)
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To: ifinnegan
It was a much more modern fellow, a bank robber named Willie Sutton, who answered a question as to why he robbed banks by saying : Because that's where the money is!

Jesse James certainly robbed banks but he was at least as likely to target money shipments on the Union Pacific Railroad. Almost all of his robberies targeted major pro-Union bankers or businessmen.

His worst mistake was hitting a bank owned by Union General Ben Butler at Northfield, Minnesota. Butler and the town were very well prepared. Many snipers were on the roofs near the Northfield bank. As Frank and Jesse and the Youngers and other members of the gang emerged from the bank, many of them were cut down. One Younger brother (James?) had his lower jaw shot off. His brothers wanted to stop in nearby woods and give him whatever care they could. Frank and Jesse did not agree and placed a high premium on getting away which they did. Cole Younger and his brothers split with Frank and Jesse at that point. The James-Younger gang was effectively finished.

9 posted on 05/29/2015 7:11:09 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline: Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Society. Rack 'em Danno!)
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