Hotline's GOP Presidential Power Rankings: Rubio on the Rise

Cruz and Rubio climb, and Paul slides, after their official campaign launches.

Three Republicans have officially announced they're running for president—but only two of them improved their standing since Hotline's previous edition of its GOP Presidential Power Rankings.

Sens. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio kicked off their campaigns in early spring, with Cruz and Rubio in particular demonstrating unexpected financial might and taking advantage of the moment. Meanwhile the most memorable moment from Paul's rollout was a clash with the press. Still, as we mentioned last time, if you're going to make mistakes in the presidential race, it's better to make them early—something Scott Walker, who remains in good position, can take heart in after some rocky news cycles of his own.

We rank would-be candidates' chances of winning the Republican nomination based on their individual strengths and weaknesses, political organizations, poll numbers—and on the odds that they even run. Here's where the race to win the GOP primaries stands right now:

Call him the fragile frontrunner. Bush continues to top the (relatively meaningless) national polls, hoover up campaign cash, and build a formidable political operation based out of Miami. He is not, however, pulling away from the pack. In fact, the pack is getting both closer and bigger, with one-time mentee Marco Rubio officially jumping into the race and Ohio Gov. John Kasich making noise that he could do the same. The Bush name continues to be his greatest money-raising asset but also a drag in a contest to be the Republican nominee. Republicans, even some partial to Jeb, are worried that Bush v. Clinton doesn't give the GOP the best chance in 2016. Still, Bush almost certainly will have the funds to compete in not only the kickoff states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina but beyond. But will he have any victories under his belt by then?

It's been a roller coaster ride for Walker since his big splash at the Iowa Freedom Summit in late January. On the plus side, his poll numbers spiked, his organization beefed up, and he was legitimized in the eyes of major donors who could underwrite his campaign—including, possibly, the Koch brothers. Yet throughout this early upswing, Walker has sustained a series of self-inflicted wounds that call his readiness into question. For one thing, his campaign failed to vet a key hire with a history of Iowa-bashing tweets; he quickly fired her in a nod to Iowa's power. Much more damaging, however, has been a string of perceived flip-flops—on energy standards, and more importantly, immigration—that build on a damning narrative, established long ago in Wisconsin, that Walker is a ruthless political animal who will do whatever is necessary to win.

The senator from Florida is enjoying a nice bounce in polling, fundraising, and media attention after his mid-April launch, which he used to set up a generational contrast with Hillary Clinton. We'll have to wait and see whether the polling sugar high lasts, but Rubio's early campaign events— including a well-received swing through New Hampshire last weekend—have highlighted speaking skills that are unparalleled in this cycle. The money looks like it will be there, too, especially on the super PAC side, and Rubio's political operation is built on a data-analytics foundation that could allow it to spend the money it raises more efficiently. He's probably the candidate with the most potential. The question is whether it will be realized.

The first major candidate to officially declare for president, Cruz's late-March launch at Liberty University couldn't have gone any better. Not only did he have the 2016 stage to himself the day of his announcement, he effectively owned the news cycle for an entire week. The result: Cruz gobbled up attention on social media and hauled in huge donations from a diverse donor base across the country. In his first nine days as a candidate, Cruz raised $4.3 million, a surprising sum that, taken with a reported $31 million already committed to a cluster of pro-Cruz super PACs, shows he will be financially competitive against any Republican in the field.

Paul has dropped a slot since our last rankings, and his uneven early performance on the trail is one reason why. It's only human for candidates to tire of tough interview questions, but Paul cracked—with Savannah Guthrie, no less—less than 24 hours after he became a candidate. The logistics of his five-state rollout were nearly flawless, but temperament questions drowned that out. He still has a loyal base and breakout potential. But foreign policy's emergence to the fore in recent months has highlighted just how out of step Paul is with the traditional GOP base. He's likely to continue take fire on national security from all corners— $1 million in attacks ads went up right after he announced—and Sen. Lindsey Graham appears to take particular delight in slamming Paul's foreign policy views.

It's not much of a silver lining, but Christie did what he needed to do months ago—convince conservatives that he's one of them. His pitch on entitlement reform is consistent with his early attempts at fiscal reform in New Jersey, and fit well with his style of speaking tough truths to skeptics. Expect him to focus all his efforts on New Hampshire in the coming months, which features a more moderate GOP electorate and where a "straight-talk" town hall focused approach paid off for John McCain.

But his favorability ratings among Republicans continue to be the worst in the field, and that makes it hard to see how he has a path to the nomination. Losing one of his closest allies, New Jersey state Sen. Joe Kyrillos, to Jeb Bush's campaign is a major blow since it could be a leading indicator of what even longtime Christie fans think of his prospects.

If anyone had any doubts Mike Huckabee was actually planning to launch a second White House bid, his activity over the past several weeks should have eased them. The former Arkansas governor set up an exploratory committee in early April, while veteran Iowa GOP operative Nick Ryan was tapped to run a pro-Huckabee super PAC. Plus, he will end his nationally syndicated radio program May 1, four days before announcing his 2016 decision. Huckabee remains a favorite among social conservatives, especially in Iowa, but the race for the support of that key slice of the GOP electorate is far more competitive this time around than it was in 2008. Still, Huckabee's stature among the evangelical community provides him with a viable path to victory in some of the early-voting states, which is more than can be said for most of those names below him on this list.

Kasich remains an interesting possibility, given his strong approval ratings back home, heterodox positions on issues from healthcare to foreign policy, and his recent move to set up a national political committee. His biggest challenge, if he decides to run, is remaining on message. Kasich tends to ramble and swerve from topic to topic, a trait that can be endearing for a statewide candidate but problematic for someone running under presidential-level scrutiny.

His bigger challenge: He's waited so long to run, that it's hard to find a niche in the crowded field. Jeb Bush is sucking up support from the establishment, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker look like fresh-faced conservative alternatives, and even accomplished governors from Rick Perry to Bobby Jindal are sitting on the bench. The only space left may be to run as the moderate in the field. We saw how well that worked for Jon Huntsman in 2012.

We haven't heard much from the former Texas governor lately. Visits to New Hampshire and Iowa haven't yielded significant coverage or buzz. In national polls, he draws as much support as long-shots such as Carly Fiorina. The best thing that can be said right now about Rick Perry is he's hiring some of the party's top policy and political minds. Still, that won't ease concerns that fellow Texan Cruz is siphoning money and momentum from Perry's still-unofficial bid. Perry has the qualities of a dark-horse candidate—he just needs voters to start getting on board. But Perry also has as little room for error as anyone in the race after a 2012 campaign that he's still apologizing for, even unprompted.

It's not a good sign that Rick Santorum's biggest headline of late happened after he said he wouldn't attend a gay wedding, even for a loved one. The former senator's advisers, confident that a populist message would hit a sweet spot with GOP primary voters, want to shift the perception of Santorum from hot-blooded culture warrior to voice for blue-collar conservatives. But every time he is asked a question about social issues, Santorum answers candidly and makes the re-branding more difficult. He can't afford to have much go wrong: With Huckabee looking more and more like a real candidate, and Cruz's early surge of support and resources, competition for Santorum-type voters in Iowa and elsewhere is quickly becoming fierce.

Bobby Jindal has tried to be just about everything to just about everyone in the Republican Party. And it hasn't gotten him very far. The Louisiana governor has made the rounds to the early-voting states, but still remains unknown to most voters. Jindal has appeal to the establishment and grassroots wings of the party, but not enough to make him anyone's first choice, especially in this crowded field. Plus, his popularity continues to plummet back home as tries to deal with the state's $1.6 billion budget shortfall. Without a clear base of support, it's difficult at the moment to see a path forward for this once-rising star.

Fiorina has surprised pundits and delighted GOP voters with her hard-hitting attacks on Hillary Clinton. That could get her traction as the campaign progresses. But it's just hard to envision her as the nominee. Only two presidents have been elected without holding any previous political office or high military rank. Fiorina has her corporate record at HP to tout, but it's plenty controversial. Mitt Romney learned firsthand that running as a business leader carries significant political peril—both in a GOP primary and a general.

Give this to Graham: No one appears to be having more fun on the pre-campaign trail than the South Carolina senator. Graham is entering states like Iowa and New Hampshire with low-to-no expectations, so voters are often pleasantly surprised by his charm. But translating that affability into concrete support is a different ballgame. Even in his home state, he's only polling third among Republicans. For the time being at least, Graham seems content injecting his hawkish brand of foreign policy into the race and needling Rand Paul.

Carson is expected to formally announce his campaign for president May 4 in Detroit—and immediately head to Iowa, where he hopes his socially conservative, tea-party message can break through. The biggest problem for Carson is that in a crowded field, he simply doesn't have the gravitas or experience of his rivals. It didn't help matters that he told GQ that his favorite treasury secretary was "Andrea Mitchell's husband" (that would be Alan Greenspan, who was actually the chairman of the Federal Reserve) and that he didn't seem to know what Israel's Knesset was. Carson may be a factor in 2016, but he's not a favorite.

It was already becoming clearer, through late winter and early spring, that Pence wasn't putting together a presidential political operation. But the blow-up over Indiana's religious freedom law seems to have pushed the governor further off the presidential radar—not because it played badly with Republican primary voters, but because it damaged his standing so badly in Indiana, where Pence is up for reelection in 2016. He has enough to worry about at home without taking on a packed presidential field, too.

Who are these mysterious (and supposedly plentiful) Marco Rubio backers? I never see any of them here, at what is arguably the biggest conservative site on the Internet. Christie? Huckabee? Hahahahahahaha!

Why waste time on these creeps?

Stick a fork in the USSA. If you have kids, leave.

2 posted on 04/22/2015 11:39:39 PM PDT by Forgotten Amendments (Peace On Earth! Purity of Essence! McCain/Ripper 2016)

Surprised they didn't scrape the bottom of the barrel for a few more wannabe candidates. Seems it would be better to break this into a three groups:

GOPe. Bush III, Walker, Rubio. The amnesty crowd.
Tea Party. Cruz.
The Wannabe Candidates. Paul II, Huckabee, Christie, Perry, Kasich, Santorum, Jindal, Fiorina, Graham, Pence, Carson, West, etc.

3 posted on 04/23/2015 1:14:09 AM PDT by Reno89519 (For every illegal or H1B with a job, there's an American without one. Muslim = Nazi = Evil)

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