Hotline's GOP Presidential Power Rankings: Walker's Early Moment

Scott Walker climbs the rankings after a great start to the year, while Paul and Christie stumbled down the list.

Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and a surging Scott Walker top Hotline's new GOP Presidential Power Rankings – in part because they're that good, and in part because the competition has been so bad.

If you're going to make mistakes in the presidential race, it's better to make them early. But Rand Paul and Chris Christie have stumbled so often they've slipped from the top-tier slots they occupied in the first round of the Power Rankings we released last month. Walker is moving hard in the opposite direction.

We rank would-be candidates' chances of winning the Republican nomination based on their individual strengths and weaknesses, political organizations, poll numbers – and on the odds that they even decide to run. No serious candidates are officially running yet. Here's how it looks if they do:

The former Florida governor stays on top for now, if only because his fundraising prowess -- charging $100,000 per ticket at a recent Wall Street event -- is unrivaled among his Republican peers. But the past few weeks have revealed chinks in Bush's armor. For starters, his first major policy speech in Detroit was flat and uninspiring; it wasn't until the Q&A section that Bush came to life and spoke with energy and urgency about his candidacy. Worse was Bush's failure to properly vet CTO Ethan Czahor, who was pushed out after reporters found a history of offensive remarks on social media and elsewhere. Bush aspires to be a hip, 21st-century campaigner. But his team's failure to investigate the background of a major hire -- whose 177 tweets could have been reviewed in a matter of minutes -- raises serious doubts about the agility and tech savvy of the emerging Bush operation. Remember: His last winning campaign was in 2002, before Twitter even existed.

His spot-on speech to the Iowa Freedom Summit produced a sugar-high that quickly vaulted Walker into the national conversation, and, as a result, to the top of polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire. The question now is how Walker handles the scrutiny of being a perceived frontrunner. Already this past week, theBoston Globe andWashington Post published lengthy stories digging into Walker's college years. (He didn't graduate from Marquette University.) And during a trip last week to the United Kingdom, Walker was unprepared to answer questions about foreign policy and evolution. There's nothing wrong with sitting atop the polls this early; it lends Walker legitimacy in the eyes of donors and activists alike. But the Wisconsin governor now has a target on his back -- and his opponents have an entire year to take their shots.

The Florida senator's slight demotion here speaks more to Walker's sparkling Iowa debut (and subsequent polling spike) than to anything negative Rubio did or didn't do. It's also worth noting that Walker has been making overt moves to prepare for his White House run, such as leasing office space in Iowa, while Rubio has kept things closer to the vest. That said, Rubio's recent hire of Jim Merrill— who was highly coveted after running Mitt Romney's winning New Hampshire primary campaign—is the surest sign yet that Rubio is preparing a competitive run. We're eager to see how Rubio is received this month in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, where he is kicking off his national book tour and is likely to field some tricky questions about his push for comprehensive immigration reform in 2013.

The Kentucky senator has dropped after a somewhat shaky start to 2015. Some of the biggest headlines he has generated have been negative ones: He shushed a female anchor on CNBC, twisted himself in knots trying to talk about freedom and vaccinations, and flopped at the Koch brothers summit, where he showed up for a presidential job interview in blue jeans. Still, Paul is continuing to build a truly elite national campaign team, hiring GOP operative Chris LaCivita as a senior adviser —he helped save Pat Roberts's Senate seat last fall—and Chip Englander as his campaign manager-in-waiting. Not all staffing news has been good, though, as Iowa Republicans are grumbling ( and not quietly) about his No. 2 man there, A.J. Spiker. With Congress about to debating using force against ISIS abroad, Paul's foreign policy views have come to the fore—differentiating him from the rest of the pack, but not necessarily positively.

The freshman Texas senator's first month of 2015 was quieter than his initial days in Congress back in 2013 when he took Capitol Hill by storm. That has been by design. Instead of the bombast he's become known for, Cruz has quietly been expanding his political operation, most recently naming Rick Tyler, formerly of Newt Gingrich world, as a communications adviser. When he went to Iowa last month, Cruz got a raucous reception from the red-meat social conservative crowd. While there, he also met with "liberty" activists (the movement inspired by Ron Paul) and evangelical leaders. He's moved up two spots on these rankings because he's shown he's a player for the hearts and votes of the most conservative voters, especially caucus-goes in the key early state of Iowa.

We said it in January, and we'll say it again: Don't underestimate Rick Perry. The former Texas governor has traveled to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina over the past month, showing along the way that he still has the ability to connect with both the business-friendly and tea party wings of the GOP. Perry will never be able to compete with the likes of Bush for campaign cash, but he will still able to raise a considerable amount of money, as evidenced by the 80-plus donors he recruited to headline his PAC earlier this month. And while Perry is near the back of the pack of most horse-race polls, he has posted strong favorability ratings in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Still, Perry is slowly continuing to repair his image as a failed 2012 candidate, and because of that, no Republican on this list has less room for error. Even one slip-up could doom his presidential aspirations.

Christie has found some success in the inside game in 2015, hiring a top Iowa operative, launching a leadership PAC and hiring away the RNC's finance director, Ray Washburne, to run his money-raising operation. But his public image has taken a beating. There were the revelations of his luxury champagne tastes (when travelling on other people's dime), dodging the media in London ("Is there something you don't understand about 'no questions'?"), and creating headache headlines when he did speak (about vaccines). Back in New Jersey, his approval rating has sagged to new lows. Perhaps more worrisome, he's underwater by 18 points—among Republicans—in Iowa. Early 2015 may be a good time to be making mistakes. But it's better not to be making them at all.

Aside from Bush, Mike Huckabee is the only candidate who didn't move up or down since out last rankings. Why? He's still a favorite among social conservatives, but the past month has shown how difficult it will be for him to expand beyond his core constituency. Whether it's been criticizing the Obamas for letting their daughters listen to Beyoncé or comparing same-sex marriage to drinking and swearing, the former Arkansas governor hasn't exactly broadened his base of support since the beginning of the new year. But the bigger issue for Huckabee going forward is that it will be much harder for him to lock down evangelical voters the way he did in 2008. He's facing a much younger and tech-savvier field of Republicans this time around, and it's unclear if he will be able to adapt.

Jindal spent last week in Washington pitching his education proposals in a bid to be the "ideas" candidate in the crowded GOP field—and to draw some contrasts with another reform-oriented governor, Jeb Bush. But the trip also drew scrutiny to his governing record in Louisiana and the state's newfound fiscal challenges. He remains a credible contender because of his potential ability to win over both the establishment and the conservative grassroots, but that potential has yet to be translated into early-state support. The risk: In attempting to win over both groups, he'll be left out of the mix entirely.

Pence has the tools and appeal to both social and fiscal conservatives to be a formidable candidate, but there's nothing there but potential right now. The Indiana governor has hinted at presidential ambitions before. Yet there are few if any concrete signs that he is actually preparing a bid, including his ultra-low-key visit to Washington recently. It's worth noting that unlike the governors currently preparing campaigns, Pence is still in his first term and would have to decide not to run for reelection to pursue the presidency.

It's been a relatively quiet month and a half for Santorum, which isn't so bad given the predicaments that have befallen his headline-grabbing rivals of late. Early polls in Iowa show him lagging behind the front-runners, which should be discouraging for the man who won the caucuses in 2012. But he started as a long-shot there last time around, and as his new book shows, he still has a unique connection with social conservatives. Many of them could yet decide to rally behind his candidacy. But he, like Huckabee, is facing a trickier field this time.

If a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it, does it make a sound? Graham's decision to set up a tax-exempt group to raise exploratory money drew shrugs from most observers, who have since moved on.

But the South Carolina senator is actually kicking the tires with donors and other supporters. One glaring problem: Graham got only 56 percent of his home-state primary vote in 2014 against a field of no-names. We think the 2016 presidential field will be a little stronger.

The Ohio governor risks missing his presidential opportunity if he doesn't get in soon, but his visit to South Carolina this week is the clearest sign that he's considering the possibility. Kasich's big pitch to conservatives is his call for a balanced budget amendment, which hasn't caught fire with the base. And he hasn't backtracked from heterodox positions on Medicaid expansion and government spending for the poor. The longer he waits, the longer his chances will be to make a name for himself -- in a field filled with governors who are also touting their record of reforms and electability.

Carson's standing in the GOP field can be easily summed up by looking at two of the big speeches he delivered in January. At the Iowa Freedom Summit, the retired neurosurgeon showed that he is still a star among the party's most conservative members, but he faced a more skeptical audience earlier in the month at the RNC's winter meeting in California, where he was reduced to trying to persuade GOP leaders that he's "not crazy." Carson continues to post solid poll numbers in states like Iowa, and there's no doubt he has the potential to make some noise at the caucuses. But at this point, it's hard to see a Carson presidential campaign doing anything more than that.

The former Hewlett-Packard CEO has positioned herself as one of the field's fiercest critics of Hillary Clinton, and plenty of Republicans love her business savvy and experience. Fiorina was also well-received in Iowa last month, and she can be a dynamic speaker. But like Carson, she starts at a disadvantage because she's never held elected office before, and unlike Carson, she's not really registering in the polls.

We know: Romney publicly and unequivocally bowed out of the presidential race after an unexpected weeks-long flirtation with a campaign. But ask yourself: If Jeb Bush stumbled badly, wouldn't some of the Republican establishment try one last time to draft Romney into the race? We expect nothing of the sort to happen, but the truth is, the last GOP presidential nominee could still be a force if he entered the race—however unlikely that may be.

So true. As far as I am concerned Rubio cooked his goose when he went in the tank for amnesty.

Cruz and Walker - the two guys that the MSM, the lefties, the GOP-E, and even many FReepers want to kneecap.

I'm guessing some of Rubio’s support comes from 2012 Romney supporters and other establishment types that don't want another Bush as the nominee. It's hard to see a path for him getting the nomination short of the rest of field imploding.

IMO, Rubio’s high rank in these media power rankings comes from the belief he has some untapped potential. They are expecting him to recapture the buzz he had in 2010 ignoring the fact that he has alienated the people that got him elected in 2010.

RE:”Half of those individuals have no more chance of being president than you or I do. Rubio? Who are his supporters? I never see them here. “

Probably more than half.

But ‘running’ to the media is free TV coverage. I wont bring up my favorite example...for you bro :)

How about ‘15. Carly Fiorina’ just as one example. A few segs on ABC This Week complaining about Obama and she's a candidate.

So you are saying its time to all fall behind Walker for the next ~ 20 months ??

6 posted on 02/18/2015 7:21:29 PM PST by sickoflibs (King Obama : 'The debate is over. The time for talk is over. Just follow my commands you serfs""')

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