Posted on 01/24/2015 11:10:43 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
efore Mike Huckabee ran in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, Lori Jungling, a mother of four in Altoona, about 15 minutes outside Des Moines, had never been involved in a presidential campaign. Actually, Jungling had never even bothered to vote. But in 2007, the message from the Baptist minister-turned-Republican Arkansas governor made its way to Jungling’s personal faith-first foundation, and soon enough she was volunteering—a lot. Calls, emails, tweets, events. She even served as state director for Huck PAC, Huckabee’s 2008 grassroots political action committee. She didn’t take one dime. “He believes what I believe,” she told me.
That’s the kind of passion Huckabee created in thousands of other Lori Junglings in Iowa seven years ago. He was a unique force that campaign cycle, galvanizing evangelicals and home-schoolers in a way no one in this state can remember happening before. And he not only shocked the establishment by thumping the second-place finisher, Mitt Romney, by 9 percentage points on his way to victory, but he also created a fervor with his supporters that pushed the presidential caucus turnout to levels not seen before. Approximately 125,000 Republicans caucused in 2008, almost 50 percent more than had ever showed up. More than 60 percent of the Republicans caucus-goers that year were also evangelicals. The Baptist minister was doing some serious preaching. And Iowans sang his praise.
They sang a different tune in 2012, though. When Huckabee decided not to run again for president, many other candidates—Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich—all tried to channel his 2008 campaign message. In the end, Santorum did the best job of pulling together Huckabee’s faction of social conservatives, and was named the 2012 GOP caucus champion. Call it the Huckabee model for modern-day campaigning in Iowa. Huckabee mastered it. Others copied it. Now, however, Huckabee himself may be competing against it.
That’s because Huckabee is giving some serious hints that he will run again. He quit his Fox News television show earlier this month “to ascertain if the support exists strongly enough for another Presidential run.” And while he might be a long-shot candidate nationwide, if he does decide to jump into the race, he would come into Iowa as the man to beat.
But 2016 is not 2008, or even 2012. Which raises the question: How would their beloved Huck fare eight years later?
“Way too early to say that,” Republican Gov. Terry Branstad tells me. He won’t say anyone is the man, or woman, to beat because of the depth of the potential field this time around. His Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, who happened to be standing next to Branstad when I spoke to the governor recently, nodded in agreement, and after reflecting on all the early names of potential candidates, said simply, “Here we go!”
Indeed, a lot has changed in the past eight years—in Iowa and American politics writ large. For one, there is no sitting incumbent as there was in 2012, when Huckabee sat out. And while Huckabee might have cornered the evangelical vote in 2008, many of his potential competitors in 2016—former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker—would all likely go after the same bloc. Not to mention Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who both could make another campaign that makes it to Iowa again.
Another change: The anti-establishment movement on the right has grown more crowded and more segmented recently. There isn’t just the moderates/economy-first portion of the GOP and the newly more organized social conservatives (more organized thanks, in large part, to Huckabee’s efforts). There’s now also the libertarian/Tea Party/constitutionalist crowd. Add Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul to that group, plus Cruz and likely Carson, too. There are a lot of choices for those who don’t think moderates like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Mitt Romney are the way to go. A lot of choices besides Huckabee.
Already, the sons of Huck—his potential competition—have descended on Iowa and are making their mark. In December, pro-Carson forces opened the state’s first campaign-like office. Officially it belongs to the Draft Ben Carson movement, but two full-timers and three part-timers make sure Iowans know who Carson is. And Ryan Rhodes, a former Michele Bachmann staffer, is putting together what looks like it will become the official campaign side of Carson’s Iowa operations.
Other potential campaigns might not be quite as established, but they are also beginning to connect with the state. Jindal has hosted Iowans, including the state’s Republican National Committeewoman, Tamara Scott, back in his state and has spent time this month back in Iowa meeting with influential religious leaders. Texas Gov. Perry has made similar moves. And former Pennsylvania Sen. Santorum is in the state more than some of Iowa’s snowbirds; he has already spent a dozen days traveling the state since the last general election, second only to Perry’s 15. Ted Cruz is also working Iowa hard, having traveled the state for eight days over that same time, including headlining the party’s Ronald Reagan Dinner in Des Moines before more than 600 diehards.
And that’s all before this weekend, which marks the unofficial beginning of the 2016 Iowa Caucus campaign. Rep. Steve King’s much-anticipated Iowa Freedom Summit on Saturday and Sunday is offering a “who’s-who” of Republicans who like to be considered presidential candidates: Santorum, Cruz, Perry, Walker, New Jersey Gov. Christie, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Donald Trump and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Oh, and Mike Huckabee.
That’s a whole army of challengers compared to what Huckabee faced in 2008. Sam Brownback, then a U.S. senator from Kansas, tried for a while to win over the state’s social conservatives but dropped out after bombing in the Iowa Republican Party’s August 2007 straw poll. Mitt Romney, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, while more formidable as general election candidates, weren’t exactly the darlings of the social right when they competed. So that left the majority of the increasingly organized born-againers and home-schoolers for Huckabee, and helped him surprise most everyone with his caucus night win, with 34 percent of the vote.
******
Dave Price is political director and weekend anchor for WHO-TV and author of Caucus Chaos, about the 2012 Iowa Caucuses.
Huckabee is for amnesty - end of story.
Even if he won the presidency, his amnesty would forever shut out any future Republican candidates forever.
Unfortunately, it isn't the end of the story. Theres also all his other statist beliefs and tendencies.
Hope springs eternal among American politicians.
And the families of four dead cops could fill you in on that.
He has no shot to be president. Way too many big hitters running this time around. Wonder if he’s angling for a cabinet position? I don’t think he’ll even get 5% in Iowa this time around. I say the same thing about Santorum too. Retreads like these two guys won’t even get a sniff from the voters next winter and spring. They want new blood and don’t want recycled candidates.
Go away, Huckster.
Maurice Clemmons.
There are just a lot less Anglos around to vote for this guy...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Clemmons
Yup. This is the kind of upstanding citizen Huckster released on the streets.
The closed-border position is anti-capitalist, anti-free market and anti-Evangelical. The closed-border position is a Malthusian-Guttmacher population control anachronism in the conservative movement.
In almost every GOP primary the JD Hayworths lose the conservative base due to their population control position.
no thanks Huck!
and take Santorum and that nut Paul with you!
He was in over his head as gov of Arkansas
1
So far I’m leaning to a Scott Walker, Donald Trump ticket. Scott Walker for is tenacity, Donald Trump as his hatchet man. Those two would make the dems $hit their pants.
Of course I don’t know anything in depth about Walker, but right now it doesn’t matter.
The article mentions Scott Walker as a potential competitor for Evangelical votes. With his close affiliation with GOPe (Priebus, Ryan, Rove), I just don’t see it.
I prefer Huckabee winning Iowa only to Jeb or some others. Huckabee at least differs from the establishment on social issues.
Every single “once-safe” incumbent who loses a primary is weak on amnesty.
Murkowski, Bennett, Congressman Cannon, Cantor, Lugar and others.
The ones who retired or flipped parties: Kyl, Arlen and others.
Every single squish on immigration barely makes 60%. Ellmers(pro-abortion, pro-obamacare and pro-amnesty), McConnell and Cornyn are in that league.
The big government, big spending RINOs like Mike Enzi, Crapo and Risch never face a primary challenge because they are solid on amnesty. They get 80% in a primary.
Hayworth lost because Senate control was possible and Hayworth had some ads about free money and other issues.
A closed-border is different than a secured border. Sovereign nations, by definition, have a right (and a duty) to control the flow of immigrants entering the country.
Your statement suggests that the anti-amnesty position is a closed-border position, which is grossly misleading.
The capitalist position: Let the Free Market decide.
Giving the government the power to tell private employers whom they can and cannot hire (everify) is not only not free market...It will not be used as intended. Whoever controls the list controls who can and cannot get hired.
Obviously welfare parasites are not part of the free market.
The big distinction between Republicans and Democrats should be whether immigrants (legal and illegal) get welfare. Most immigrants believe in work and will support that. Work is good. Welfare is bad.
Of course, also Republicans should enforce against murderers, rapistss, etc that Democrats only give occasional lip service.
I’m sure there’s some rational, coherent thought in your post, but I sure can’t find it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.