Posted on 12/09/2014 9:26:58 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The Republican Party’s largest donors all seem to have the same idea. They’d like the 2016 presidential nomination race settled early on in the cycle. And, if you believe the reporting of the New York Times (and in this instance, it may be accurate), they’d like it to be one of the following three candidates: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or, wait for it, Mitt Romney. The conceit of the article is not crazy. If a critical mass of GOP fat cats gets together on a candidate, the odds will shift in favor of that person. But there’s a big problem with this thesis. As crucial as money is to any presidential candidate, those three aren’t the only ones who will head into 2016 with cash on hand. And given the large field of potential and even credible Republican candidates, the notion that a winner can be anointed early in the year with out a nasty and messy fight is not that good. Personally, I doubt one of that trio will be the nominee, but if one of them does win, they’ll have to fight for it.
Part of the desire to get behind Bush, Christie, or Romney is the very rational idea winning in November will require them to nominate a relative moderate rather than the likes of Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, and a gaggle of other would-be Republican presidents on the right. But though the GOP nomination has gone to the most mainstream moderate running the last two times (John McCain and Romney), 2016 will be a bit different.
In 2012, Romney’s fiercest competition came from Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. Though both of them did far better and lasted longer than most pundits (including me) thought they would, they were no match for Romney’s money or his ability to pose as the most electable candidate (which he was, although that just meant he was fated to lose to President Obama by a smaller margin than any other Republican running). This time around Bush, Christie, and Romney may be able to make the same kind of argument about electability if stacked up against Hillary Clinton, but they will be facing a much more formidable group of opponents.
Candidates like Paul and Cruz will be well funded and have a vocal and organized base of supporters. And even if we dismiss a host of other candidates now being discussed such as Dr. Ben Carson or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal as unlikely to make it past the first primaries, or think others such as Mike Huckabee or Paul Ryan won’t run, those fixated on the moderate big three are ignoring the potential that one or more of a group of well regarded GOP governors including Scott Walker, John Kasich, and Mike Pence may be poised to break through in a crowded field in which no single candidate is likely to dominate. Of those, Walker will be dangerous because of his ability to appeal to both movement conservatives and to mainstream Republicans. Kasich has the credentials and the heretical stands on some issues like immigration (at least from the point of view of some conservatives) to compete with the big three for establishment support. All these calculations also ignore the fact that Marco Rubio may be just as capable of appealing to moderates and those who care about foreign policy even if he may have lost his erstwhile Tea Party backers because of his support for immigration reform.
All of which is to say that even if all the big donors got behind either Bush, Christie, or Romney, their path to the nomination would still be steep and hard.
As for the specific chances of those big three, it’s foolish to make any hard and fast predictions this far in advance of the first primaries and caucuses. But I believe Bush’s seeming belief that he cannot just finesse the conservative base as Romney did in 2012 but actually run against it and win the nomination is science fiction, not political science. The thin-skinned Christie has to prove to me that he can thrive on a national presidential stage without blowing himself up before I’ll think he has a prayer of overcoming the serious doubts about him on the part of most conservatives. As for Romney, it’s possible that all those writing or spreading rumors about him running again know more about his intentions than I do. But until he announces, I’m going to take him at his word and believe that he and his family have had enough of the electoral rat race and that he will allow the next generation of Republicans to take a crack at the big job after he tried and failed to get it twice. If he does run, even many conservatives who couldn’t stand him before will feel some degree of sympathy for the man they know would have been a better president than Obama. However, the assumption they’ll flock to him ignores the fact that there will be other fresher faces that may look better to both activists and voters once they get over their remorse about Romney being short-changed by history in 2012.
Seen in that light, those among the large donors to the Republican Party who are thinking now to lie back and wait for the race to develop rather than rushing in and hoping that early support for a frontrunner will give them access and prestige to the eventual winner have the right idea. The field is too large and there are simply too many variables to make any rational prediction about how it will all play out. An early decision on the nominee would make it easier for that person to prepare to battle the Democrats. But as things stand now, that is something that is not in the cards.
Cruz will get the max donations possible from me if he jumps in
The “most electable” translates to the next loser who will lose to a badly flawed, and easily beatable Democrat.
I think I will wait and see who the libes nominate for us. You know, the one that they say is the only one than can beat them ... and look deeper in the field for the one they spend time denigrating and the one that they can’t possibly win.
I don't think Mr. Tobin knows anything about conservatives. Sympathy? Seriously?
Uhh . . . no.
I might repeat to him something my first sergeant used to say “If you want sympathy look right between $#*+ and syphilis in the dictionary.”
Most here will send money to Cruz. But the really big donors make the real money difference. It is difficult to match a $100 million donation from the ultra rich.
I can’t belive these dopes are ruling out guaranteed loser John Huntsman.
He’d be perfect for their obvious goal of throwing the race to Shrillary.
Prediction: If it looks like there will be a group of conservative candidates splitting wins among Iowa, South Carolina, etc, Jeb’s money men will sink everything they can into winning New Hampshire so that they can push a “momentum” narrative for the following states - especially states with open primaries.
Since the Democrat contest will be decided, moderate and liberal voters will have a bigger voice in choosing the Republican nominee. I’ll bet that Jebby’s big donors are acutely aware of this.
SSDD
There is a word for doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
But then, the Republican Party has become expert at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
I sincerely hope to see these three GOPe stupid stooges canibalize each other. Just put them together arguing with each other, especialy conceited narcissistic Christie, fat crypto Marxist Jeb and metooagain Romneycare
We might be better off concentrating on the movement for the first few months of the next US Senate term. JMHO
Idiot. All the GOPe wants is to get settled early on one Establishment candidate, as they generally do—so he can win against the usual, fractured menagerie of candidates who peel off bits of the conservative vote.
Sure, it’ll eventually come down to one of those candidates against the anointed GOPe choice, but the GOPe choice will by then have established an overwhelming lead in money, organization, and party infrastructure support.
Nothing new here.
Ted should go up against these fat cats. I’d say its time for him to enter.The very least he would accomplish is to drag the field much farther to the right, but there would be a very good chance that he would win. And his VP would be? :-)
Let me be the first to add Cruz/Palin 2016.
Boy, with this strategy I can’t wait to see how many Republican voters stay home in 2016. I’m sure it will beat the Romney debacle (esp. if the GOPe selects him again). What was that definition of insanity again?
Scott Walker, John Kasich, and Mike Pence may be poised to break through in a crowded field in which no single candidate is likely to dominate. Of those, Walker will be dangerous because of his ability to appeal to both movement conservatives and to mainstream Republicans.
So far, I'm supporting Walker because he has the noted appeal and because he's gone through pure Hell fighting and beating DemonCraps, more and better than any of the others.
The earlier a Republican announces, the more time it gives the RATs and the enemedia to make up lies about him, to be released shortly before the election with little time to refute them.
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