I hope he’s right. I think he is, but I don’t wan’t to be too optimistic.
Why not make a list of the biased/worst reporters and send them a note on Tuesday night congratulate them on being on the worst reporters list. A list we can use anytime. Doesn’t matter is the ditz claims to be conservative or liberal - STUPID is all that matters.
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Again, however, there are two things NO ONE is really accounting for:
1) Ds/Rs "enthusiasm gap," as noted by almost all polls (yes, there is an outlier now and then) but basically this is anywhere from 3-5 points. That's a pretty big gap if you're dealing with a million people.
2) The "flipped D." There won't be tons of these, but there will be a goodly share, and NO "flipped Rs" who voted for McCain who now want to vote for ZEro. NO ONE is accounting for these. EVERY analysis I read assumes (as we did in our absentee analysis) that Ds will vote D and Rs will vote R. WRONG. We don't know how much, but we do know that there will be a + number in the Romney column here. Add 1+2 and you have a 3-4 point Romney win.
Maybe.
Maybe not....
My only issue is with the idea that the rightward trend in the midwest is a result of Obama or Romney. Its actually a long term trend that’s been going on for a decade (at least here in Michigan)
Kerry only beat Bush by around 4% in 04. 08 was a fluke “historic” election. In 2010, the GOP ran the table on the democrats and they didn’t pick up a single seat above the county level and the GOP took total control of the state government.
I won’t go so far as to guarantee a Romney win in Michigan but it will be very close win or lose. The democrats don’t appear to be mounting any serious challenges to pick up news seats here this time around. I also think the big union backed ballot proposals are going down to defeat.
Great article
I don’t know.
When it talks about Washington, New Jersey and Connecticut it falls instantly into the wishful thinking category to me, even without reading the rest.
This is a close election. The best point to predict it will be less close than it looks to be is saying that many pollster are sampling the likely voters like we still were in the fall of 2008 and that can make the difference in Romney advantage.
Romney is a position to win, he’s up in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. He just need Ohio or Wisconisn+Iowa or Nevada+Iowa to unseat Obama, so there are several possible paths, but none of them has to be taken for granted and there is no landslide coming. Keep that in mind otherwise any not-so-great poll will be disheartening.
I don’t think that talking about winning New Jersey can put anyone in the right track.
This is how I see things from 7000 Km away.
Why are you putting up articles without any opinion of your own?
I hope so. We know that Romney is getting the independents, more women,etc etc. We know that most people think the USA is on the wrong track. Obama has Majority disapproving.
After all that, I don’t really see how it could even be close. Now about stealing the election. I just don’t trust those touch screen thingy’s. Even if it shows Romney, how do you know someone didn’t program it to go to Obama?
I just heard Obama at a rally a few minutes ago give his Osama is dead and Al Queada is on the run. Can’t believe he is back to saying that. Anyway, he sounded totally flat, bored, like he was reading an unappetizing school lunch menu.
Agree.
If I may make a friendly suggestion....that nice report would have been much easier and more pleasant to read if it had been broken into two or more paragraphs.
In a huge block of copy like that it’s difficult to move down line-by-line without losing one’s place, skipping lines, etc.....at least, for an old codger like me.
I don’t know anything abt this guy but I LIKE him...
And one thing he didn’t mention that I think is important in OH is Obozo’s War On Coal.
by now zero and his marxist cronies know they have lost. let’s just hope cbs and cnn call penn early and really demoralize the treasonous #$%^%$&* and they stop voting. we can win a few more senate and house seats. Jimmy carter’s concession speech at around 530pst was a stroke of genius, if you wanted to get even more rats out of the race. Let’s hope it happens again.