Posted on 12/31/2003 8:55:02 AM PST by JohnnyZ
Conventional wisdom is right - it's a three-way race for Milwaukee mayor.
Tom Barrett.
David Clarke.
Undecided.
A new poll paid for by the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce found that 29% of city voters plan to vote for Barrett, a longtime north side congressman and failed Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Another 24% said they'll go for Clarke, the county sheriff who went from being just another cop to a conservative media darling in less than two years.
Election 2004
Mayoral Race Election 2004
In third place at 21% are the I-don't-knows - those who couldn't find anybody they like out of the crowded field of 11 candidates.
The only other guy to hit double-digits - though just barely - was Common Council President Marvin Pratt, who came in at 11%.
The other eight candidates split the final 15%, suggesting that none should plan on moving into City Hall any time soon.
The poll, taken Tuesday through Thursday, questioned 400 city residents who listed themselves as "most likely to vote" in the Feb. 17 primary. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points and was conducted jointly by the national polling firm of the Tarrance Group, the Madison lobbying outfit run by Bill McCoshen and University of Wisconsin-Madison professor Ken Goldstein.
Mike Ruzicka, president of the Greater Milwaukee Association of Realtors, a group that does its own political polling, said it's looking more and more like either Barrett or Clarke will be the next mayor, with Pratt as a long shot.
"Clearly, Clarke, Barrett and Pratt are the leaders of the pack right now," Ruzicka said Saturday. "The public is asking, 'Of these three, which ones do we like?' They're saying Clarke and Barrett."
The new MMAC poll - coming before the TV ad war begins next month or so - keeps the top tier in the same order as a summer survey paid for by state Rep. Pedro Colon, a Milwaukee Democrat who has since dropped out of the contest.
But the latest survey shows a marked drop in support for Barrett, who was touting Colon's numbers since they were made public in late September, and a small boost for Clarke. Specifically, Colon's poll had Barrett at 37%, Clarke solidly in second at 19% and Pratt in a distant third at 13%.
A March poll by the Realtors showed Barrett at 32%, Pratt back at 14% and Clarke nipping at Pratt's heels with 13%.
As one would expect, Clarke backers heralded the tightening of the race while Barrett's folks downplayed it.
Joel Brennan, Barrett's campaign chief, said private polls showed a healthier lead for his man, though he wouldn't provide details.
Brennan did concede that the first-term sheriff is a force to be dealt with.
"The conservative element in the community is kind of polarizing around his campaign," Brennan said.
Clarke's top guy, Jeremy Cole, agreed that voters are narrowing the field: "It surely is starting to seem like a two-horse race."
But what about Pratt?
Sure, the veteran alderman is down nearly 2-to-1 to undecided. But nobody is counting out the man who becomes acting mayor on Jan. 2, when incumbent John Norquist exits.
"If you redo this poll in late January or early February, Pratt's number is probably going to move," said one politico. "The question is: Does that number move up or down?"
On one hand, a bad snowstorm or the appearance of havoc in City Hall could kill Pratt. But his campaign could come to life if Pratt - known as a nice but indecisive career pol - uses the new gig to show he has the vision-thing after all.
"Marvin is still going to be mayor in three weeks, and that has to have an impact," Brennan said."
John Yingling, a member of Pratt's brain trust, tried to spin the numbers to say that his candidate is right where he wants to be.
Just last year, Yingling said, Barrett and Clarke flooded the Milwaukee airwaves with commercials boosting their campaigns for governor and sheriff, respectively. Combined, the pair spent over a million bucks, while Pratt has never run a race beyond the borders of his north side district.
Pratt plans to tap that same voter base in his citywide race, Yingling said, noting that Pratt needs to capture 70% of the African-American vote - a voting bloc notorious for failing to turn out on election day.
As for the rest of the field, those following this deadly dull race have been waiting for somebody to add a little excitement by breaking out of the pack of also-rans and challenging the Big Three. The two second-tier candidates considered most likely to emerge: ex-Municipal Judge Vince Bobot or businesswoman Sandy Folaron.
The new poll, however, paints a different picture. If you believe the numbers, there probably won't be a dark horse.
"Pratt you almost have to include in the other people category," said one observer. "If there's a breakout person, it's Pratt."
Then again, it just may be a two-person race.
"The undecideds are going to split between Barrett and Clarke," Ruzicka said. "That's what my instincts say."
I don't know too much about where Nagin and Clarke stand on state and federal and cultural issues. It's hard to pin down mayors and sheriffs on that sort of thing, which they tend to avoid. But Clarke is running on lower taxes and limited government, in addition to his law-and-order creds. Nagin is pro-business (good chance he's pro-life, too, in Louisiana, ya think?) And my understanding is that in tone and philosophy they're coming from a different place the black liberal establishment is. How different? I don't think anyone knows.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.