Posted on 03/12/2024 6:19:53 AM PDT by hardspunned
As the calendar barrels into another year and we tick away the days of February, notable anniversaries are marked off in sequence. It is now 2/22/2022 +2: two years since Putin’s address on the historic status of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, followed on 2/24/2022 by the commencement of the Special Military Operation and the spectacular resumption of history.
The nature of the war changed dramatically after a kinetic and mobile opening phase. With the collapse of the negotiation process (whether thanks to Boris Johnson or not), it became clear that the only way out of the conflict would be through the strategic defeat of one party by the other. Thanks to a pipeline of western support (in the form of material, financial aid, and ISR and targeting assistance) which allowed Ukraine to transcend its rapidly evaporating indigenous war economy, it became clear that this would be a war of industrial attrition, rather than rapid maneuver and annihilation. Russia began to mobilize resources for this sort of attritional war in the Autumn of 2022, and since then the war has attained its present quality - that of a firepower intensive but relatively static positional struggle.
(Excerpt) Read more at open.substack.com ...
Good analysis.
-— “The nature of this attritional-positional war lends itself to analytic ambiguity, because it denies the most attractive and obvious signs of victory and defeat in large territorial changes. Instead, a whole host of anecdotal, small scale positional analysis, and foggy data has to suffice, and this can be easily misconstrued or misunderstood. “
“But Syrski at least has a propensity to look for decision points, unlike Zaluzhny, who seemed content to slowly wither away in positional battle against a superior foe.”
Reminds me of replacing Johnston with Hood. It didn’t work out well for the CSA.
Putin’s ill considered ten day war is a disaster for Ruzzia. No one is afraid of Ruzzia anymore.
Now will this be the year China takes back Siberia?
Simple mindless prattle, not worthy of a response.
Apt historical analogy.
“Simple mindless prattle, not worthy of a response.”
She says as she responds to me.
China is under no illusion about what would happen if it attempted to invade Siberia. Russia would fight like a maniac and go nuclear in the event they were being pushed out of Siberia. Russians are thin on the ground unlike the Chinese and more immune to nuclear war.
“China is under no illusion about what would happen if it attempted to invade Siberia. Russia would fight like a maniac and go nuclear in the event they were being pushed out of Siberia. Russians are thin on the ground unlike the Chinese and more immune to nuclear war.”
Unlike Russia there are few doubts about the functionality of Chinese nuclear weapons. Also, is Russia willing to commit national suicide over losing something that doesn’t belong to them anyway?
I don’t see the people in St. Petersburg and Moscow hunkering down in the subways while Chinese nukes light off above them all so Vlad can say he hung onto Siberia.
Are you really saying that Siberia doesn’t belong to Russia but to the Chinese? What is you last name, Chan, Chao or Chen?
Up until a series of Russian wars against China Siberia belonged to China. It is historically a Chinese territory and ethnic Chinese who speak Chinese live there. It is the duty of China’s government to protect their citizens and to reassert Chinese control of Hai Shen Wai.
You bet comrade Xi! How does a leftist moron stay at FR?
You’re not that bright, are you?
You know all those reasons why you and your pro-Russian friends have used to justify Russia’s war on Ukraine?
Those same arguments also apply if China wants to take back Siberia.
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