The End of Cabinet War [Lessons from Franco-Prussian War Applied to Ukraine]

Substack ^ | 11/30/23 | Big Serge

[EnderWiggin1970]

The century intervening from the fall of Napoleon in 1815 to the beginning of the First World War in 1914 is usually regarded as a sort of golden age for Prusso-German militarism. In this period, the Prussian military establishment won a series of spectacular victories over Austria and France, establishing an aura of German military supremacy and realizing the dream of a unified Germany through force of arms. Prussia in this era also produced three of history’s iconic military personalities - Carl von Clausewitz (a theoretician), Helmuth von Moltke (a practitioner), and Hans Delburk (a historian).

As the story usually goes, this century of victory and excellence created a sense of hubris and militarism in the Prusso-German establishment which led the country to march impetuously to war in the August of 1914, only to founder in a terrible war in which new technologies frustrated its idealized approach to warmaking. Pride, as they say, goes before the fall.

This is an interesting and satisfying story, which posits a rather traditional hubris-downfall cycle. To be sure, there is an element of truth to it, as there were many elements of German leadership which possessed an unseemly degree of overconfidence. However, this was far from the only emotion. There were also many prominent pre-war German thinkers who professed fear, anxiety, and unmitigated dread. They had valuable ideas to teach their colleagues - and perhaps us.

Let’s go back, all the way to 1870, to the Franco-Prussian War.

[EnderWiggin1970]

I don't know who this guy is (he strikes me as a college prof at a military college somewhere; he mentions being a westerner in one his essays); but everything he writes is extremely astute. I keep checking back to his blog every few days in the hopes a new piece has arrived, and devour each lengthy article. Enjoy!

[Right_Wing_Madman]

I don't know who this guy is

Many people around here don't like BigSerge because he's anti-Neocon. You'll see the hate mail pile up in this thread.

[Reverend Wright]

Big Serge is Russian, but lives in the USA.

I think he is just an amateur historian, but his analysis of the Ukraine War has been extremely astute.

And his analytical pieces on WW2 etc. are also excellent.

[Robert DeLong]

It sure seems to be what we have been seeing taking place. The Russian forces went in expecting little resistance. They had initial success, which more or less confirmed that this would be a quick war that would see Ukraine totally dispatched & seeking an end to the hostilities.

But them Ukraine mounted a formidable resistance which set the Russians on their heels unsure as how to proceed. But they quickly regrouped. They did however, incorporate a form of encirclement to box in the enemy and then sitting back to start applying the attrition tactical warfare. They no longer had the desire to take more landmass to control. They are no destroying their abilities to wage war, and just as they counted on, the forces aligned with Ukraine began to sour on the support aspect as the demands grew in size & scope to secure their needs to effectively engage in warfare. It's only a matter of time, which favors Russia, because at this point time is on their side.

[SauronOfMordor]

I like his thought process. He makes sense about Ukraine.

[Jan_Sobieski]

Great Article!

[Verginius Rufus]

“Delburk” should be “Delbruck” (with dots over the u—alternatively spelled as Delbrueck).