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Johns Hopkins doctor says US will have herd immunity by April because more than half have already been infected
Washington examiner ^ | 2/19/2021 | WE

Posted on 02/19/2021 11:17:59 AM PST by mikelets456

The United States will reach a level of herd immunity to COVID-19 that will allow for a return to normal by April, according to Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health.

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Makary noted that the number of COVID-19 cases is down 77% in the last six weeks. He claimed this is due to natural immunity among people who have been previously infected and the 15% of the population already vaccinated.

Depending on the estimate, herd immunity to the coronavirus is thought to be when 60% to 80% of the population have either been infected or vaccinated.

“As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected,” Makary wrote. “At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”

Makary’s analysis depends on the number of people who have been infected. About 28 million people in the U.S. have been infected, about 8% of the population. Makary argued that the real number is much higher, possibly 55%, or about 182 million people.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous; Science
KEYWORDS: april; chinavirus; covid; herd; herdimmunity; immunity; johnshopkins
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1 posted on 02/19/2021 11:17:59 AM PST by mikelets456
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To: mikelets456

What a shame. This guy is going to be permanently banned from Facebook and Twitter now.


2 posted on 02/19/2021 11:18:50 AM PST by glorgau
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To: glorgau

and the medical community his home town, practice and own home


3 posted on 02/19/2021 11:20:04 AM PST by Bell Bouy II
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To: mikelets456

Actually observe the masked: worn with gaps around nose or under the nose, carelessly handled and stored, infrequently replaced or washed and, the biggest thing, of plain cloth that filters no pathogens, but only stops droplets.

Then, observe touching: touching store products others and cashiers and baggers have touched, touching door handles, touching mail others and carriers have touched, touching car surfaces touched on last outing, touching the mask after touching other things...

I must believe that herd immunity is happening, masked or not. This article backs that.


4 posted on 02/19/2021 11:20:06 AM PST by polymuser (A socialist is a communist without the power to take everything from their citizens...yet.)
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To: mikelets456

I’m sure Lefty will come up with a new lie to get us to trade freedom for security. another scary strain, perhaps.


5 posted on 02/19/2021 11:21:28 AM PST by Cyclops08
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To: mikelets456

This is interesting.

I think the projection might be a tad bit optimistic, but I wholeheartedly agree that much more of our populace is immune to this than we believe or know because they have had asymptomatic exposure.


6 posted on 02/19/2021 11:21:38 AM PST by volunbeer (Find the truth and accept it - anything else is delusional)
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To: mikelets456

John Hopkins was partner in the Oct 2019 Event 201 “war game” about how to shut down the world in the event of a pandemic (something that was supposed to be worse than this one is).


7 posted on 02/19/2021 11:22:22 AM PST by a fool in paradise (Call on Joe Biden to follow Donald Trump's example and donate his annual salary to charity. )
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To: a fool in paradise

(Johns)

Please. Tell Hannity too.


8 posted on 02/19/2021 11:24:20 AM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMVs. I )
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To: polymuser

Exactly. Unless you haven’t left your house for the past YEAR, and have had NO human contact whatsoever, (or, as you said, touched your mail or items in a grocery or gas station) we’ve ALL been mildly infecting one another all along!

LIBERATE WISCONSIN! LIBERATE AMERICA!


9 posted on 02/19/2021 11:26:48 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust post-Apocalyptic skill set. )
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To: mikelets456

I’ve been saying the same thing. US data since Christmas indicates we have hit early stages of herd immunity already. So either the number infected is far higher than estimates or the R0 is far lower than we thought, or perhaps both.


10 posted on 02/19/2021 11:27:19 AM PST by rb22982 ( )
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To: Bell Bouy II

My niece works in the Hopkins COVID unit. I don’t think they’ll be too bad to him.

They even use the (BETTER, and more logical) term “PHYSICAL distancing”, not “socialist distancing” (although I wish latter would happen more)


11 posted on 02/19/2021 11:27:29 AM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMVs. I )
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To: polymuser

But in the last month TOUCHING/surfaces were declared completely irrelevant. Literally somehow ONLY aspiration counts!


12 posted on 02/19/2021 11:28:43 AM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMVs. I )
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To: Cyclops08

Absolutely. The Democrats never want this to end.


13 posted on 02/19/2021 11:29:25 AM PST by Repealthe17thAmendment
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To: mikelets456

Thanks for posting the article. I have been saying the same thing for months. We live in the first known hotspot in the country, East King County WA. We have half a million recent arrivals from China living in the community... the majority visit home frequently. “Experts” at the University of Washington concluded that it was going around this community in late 2019 before the first cases were discovered. It is highly contageous and most people don’t realize they have anything serious. And even the surgical masks and N95s were not designed to be worn all day for a pathogen that is about the size of particles in smoke.


14 posted on 02/19/2021 11:31:14 AM PST by fireman15
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Infecting each other mildly is the best thing we can do for each other, IMHO.

My sister in Florida has been holed up in her home since last March, rarely going out, and passing judgment on everyone she sees who she says “don’t take this seriously” like she does. By holing up, I mean that she has not been physically outside her home more than a half dozen times. She did go out to get her hair cut once last August.

She has seen her own family one time in September. Amazingly, I was able to get her to come share a vacation home with me for a week in October. After that week, she returned to her usual not going anywhere for anything habit. All her were groceries delivered, and only perishables came inside right away and were carefully handled.

She eventually needed another haircut. She went about 2 weeks ago, and her stylist was the only one in the shop with her. Both were masked.

Guess what happened. She got sick. She started off with a runny nose, that developed into a swollen gland in her throat. Then she lost her energy. Then she got a fever, and aches in all her joints, and chills. She was tested for the flu, for strep, and for CoVid.

ALL of her tests were negative, including a follow up test for CoVid. The doctor said she thinks that my sister has deprived her immune system of handling the least little pathogen. She was out for almost 10 days start to finish. She has done herself a disservice by staying inside and away from everyone and everything all these many months.

Thankfully, she has listened to her doctor, and has decided that she needs to start going out more. She got her second dose of the vaccine on Tuesday, Thank goodness!

Yes, let’s liberate every state!


15 posted on 02/19/2021 11:51:09 AM PST by FamiliarFace
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To: FamiliarFace

My sister works for the University of Wisconsin, Madison. She arranges for students to get medical help as needed.

She has to spit in a cup and have her saliva tested, daily.

She wears it like a Badge of Honor and is so proud of her mask collection. *Rolleyes*

I hope she doesn’t get sick, of course; she is diabetic and grossly obese.

I keep telling her to just let them micro-chip her like a Westminster Poodle and get it over with, already! ;)


16 posted on 02/19/2021 12:07:19 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust post-Apocalyptic skill set. )
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To: mikelets456

... the number of COVID-19 cases is down 77% in the last six weeks.


How much of this decrease is due to the fact that the WHO changed the definition of “positive COVID-19 case”, to make it harder to meet, literally one hour after Bai Din was sworn in?


17 posted on 02/19/2021 12:10:14 PM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

I’m proud of the mask in my pocket too. It’s at least six months old, has never been washed and gets worn as infrequently as possible.


18 posted on 02/19/2021 12:12:44 PM PST by cyclotic (Live your life in such a way that they hate you as much as they hated Rush Limbaugh)
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To: mikelets456

apparently, herd immunity doesn’t exist for this particular virus...hmmmmmm


19 posted on 02/19/2021 12:40:03 PM PST by ConservativeDude
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To: cyclotic

You too?

I had it before it was a “thing”. It was no fun, but I survived. Just a bad flu.
I’m 75 and have an asthma history.


20 posted on 02/19/2021 12:56:36 PM PST by Senormechanico
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