Posted on 03/31/2020 4:08:35 PM PDT by Enlightened1
Who is this "they" who said there would be 12 million, then 6 million dead? Because from what I have seen, Fauci said there would be 1-2 million total cases, and up to 100K to 200K dead. The twitter link is of him explaining the problems with models, which change with new data that is coming in constantly. AFAIK he never said 12 million (Americans?) would die from this.
If you are going to try to compare between annual deaths and deaths from COVID-19 you need to pick a comparable interval, and then you can do the comparison. Since the COVID-19 rate is changing rapidly, and the deaths are happening in a short period you might want to try looking at daily rates.
As one example, accidental poisoning deaths happen at a rate of about 178 deaths per day. Today New York reported 332 deaths from COVID-19.
The leading cause of death in 2017 in New York State was heart disease, with 44,092 deaths, the next in line was cancer, with 34,956 deaths, and then accidents at 7,687 deaths. Collectively, that results in a rate of 238 deaths per day from the 3 top causes in New York.
The death rate today from COVID-19 infections was 1.4 times greater. The death rate from COVID-19 infections is already larger by 40% than the previous top causes of death in New York, and the number of COVID-19 fatalities per day is likely to grow significantly.
When you compare the rates of death over the same interval hopefully you can see why so many people are concerned about the COVID-19 pandemic.
Not ever State reports daily.
Some States report Weekly and others 2 times a week.
In those cases you adjust the calculation accordingly. For a fast changing rate the longer reporting intervals masks the trend, since it has the effect of lagging the curve to the midpoint average of the interval.
But comparing the number of deaths should still be done on equivalent intervals.
I wonder which was worse, World War 2 or this? Seems that people didn’t panic this much during the war and if you were a soldier or civilian in Europe or Asia at the time, you didn’t huddle in a corner all day long panicking.
The baby boomers are the first generation to think they have the right and the obligation to live forever.
If you have different States reporting at random times.
You CANNOT have an accurate daily account. Over time you get a better idea.
So much for land of the free and home of the brave.
It is more like land of the scheme and home of the slave.
The leading cause of death in 2017 in New York State was heart disease, with 44,092 deaths, the next in line was cancer, with 34,956 deaths, and then accidents at 7,687 deaths. Collectively, that results in a rate of 238 deaths per day from the 3 top causes in New York.
The death rate today from COVID-19 infections was 1.4 times greater. The death rate from COVID-19 infections is already larger by 40% than the previous top causes of death in New York, and the number of COVID-19 fatalities per day is likely to grow significantly.
1. New York is NOT the rest of America.
2. Texas which has a population of 29 million has less than 5% of the coronavirus deaths in New York which has a population of only 20 million.
3. Even California, the biggest state by population has only a fractions of the deaths in New York State.
4. You are taking the New York deaths in just one day, the worst day so far, and comparing it to extrapolated figures for heart disease, accidents etc.
Why dont you take deaths so far this year from carnivorous and compare it to deaths so far this year of heart disease, accidents etc?
It must be true since Project Veritas has some low ranking National Guard enlisted person who was on site maybe less than a week, saying it is just a flu and the fact we have so many people here saying it is just a flu.
Forget the data coming from Europe, those must be backward countries with failed heath care systems.
So after watching President Trump and Vice President Pence today leading the march stating we need to take this virus seriously and that 100,000 to 200,000 people will die over the next two months. They also stated if we do not act 1.5 million to 2 million something people will die. President Trump does not believe this is just a flu.
A person who is President should be wise enough not to be fool into believing this is something serious. If this is just a flu, President Trump has destroyed America for a flu. That would make the President a gullible leader.
When I voted for President Trump I voted for someone who I believe was a wise person that would lead the nation. Not a leader that would lead us off a cliff.
We will find out over the next 8 weeks if this is just a flu.
I am feeling dark right now, but here are the questions.
Will we all (who believe this a deadly virus) be laying broken at the bottom of a cliff for believing the President and the data?
Will we be able to trust sites like Project Veritas if this not just a flu?
Will the next 8 weeks effect President Trump re-election?
Can you (just the flu believers) support a President who lead the country off a cliff for a flu?
How do I justify voting for the President in Nov if this is just a flu?
How many people need to die for this not to be a flu?
Note: I do not watch main stream media.
Are we all being played like a fiddle?
How much of this data from both sides, people are using is propaganda from another country to split Trump’s base?
Tin Foil hat here:
Are some accounts posting in the last couple of months dead accounts that were hack to come a live again?
Because that calculation doesn't tell you much useful information. Think about what you just proposed. Why don't you take deaths starting on January 1st of 2019 and make the comparison? Or for that matter January 1st of 2018.
I would hope that you would realize that neither date range provides useful information since the COVID-19 epidemic had not started yet. Picking the starting date of the relevant period for a comparison is important if you want to learn anything useful from the comparison.
I situations where one of the relevant variables is changing rapidly one way to get useful comparisons is to look at the rate over short intervals, like the day.
Think about how you would try to compare economic activity now to economic activity before the COVID-19 epidemic. Which is more useful, the loss of jobs that happened since the start of the shutdown, or the 3 month running average?
The first shows you that we have a major economic dislocation, the second suggests a minor shift in economic circumstances. Which is closer to reality as perceived and experienced by our society?
Yeah.. 2 to 3 times the death of what an influenza would be. Just the flu?
Its not 100,000 dead in two weeks. The prediction is 100K+ dead over the span of the outbreak.
Because coronavirus started in America around the start of 2020, and even in China at the start of December 2019.
Why on earth would you start comparisons from the start of 2019?
No, he said in two weeks the death toll will be 100,000 to 200,000.
The only useful comparison is what I gave, that is total deaths from heart disease, diabetes, hypertension etc from the start of the year when coronavirus started in the US to now, and compare it to coronavirus deaths in the US or in New York.
Meanwhile the New York State figures you gave DON'T apply to any other state
I already gave you the examples of Texas and California, which have far fewer deaths from coronavirus, even with twice the population of New York State for California and 50% more people in Texas.
They quoted the death rate on Hannity’s show as 0.66%.
Let’s put that in perspective:
Than 1 in 151 cases.
If unemployment hits 30%...that’s 45 in 151.
A study conducted in 2017 found that a 10% increase in unemployment would shorten the average life span of the population by 1.5 years.
We’re killing more people than we’re saving.
Project Veritas always nails it.
The current situation is an engineered takedown of the world economy to bring about forced inoculation of everyone. And there are some POS on this site who will support it.
“We’re killing more people than we’re saving”
Disagree. As a small side ripple effect of the efforts most Americans are making: Autoaccients are way down. The shootings in Chicago have dropped to a minimum. Flu deaths are way down due to the social distancing. I could go on.
The same ripple effects you’d have in a gulag. Great argument!
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