Posted on 03/17/2020 4:36:45 AM PDT by tatown
What if we compared the mortality rate of influenza and coronavirus using only confirmed cases (no estimates)? People seem to like to use a ~0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu when comparing it to coronavirus. This 0.1% figures includes all of the estimated influenza cases in the US, using modeling, which dramatically lowers the mortality rate. The same modeling/estimating is never applied to coronavirus. What happens when we only use confirmed cases for each and eliminate the models and estimates for total cases?
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so. Again, this calculation is void of opinion and hysteria and simply relies on data that is known (confirmed cases and confirmed deaths). No estimates, no models, no Chinese data, Iranian data, Italian data, South Korean, etc...
You’ll ruin the day of hundreds of people here with this post.
Actually, you’ll just receive thousands of pie graphs and charts and “data” from God knows where showing you how wrong you are.
I like your math. I’m pretty sure my wife and kids and myself were exposed. I’ve got a cough. She’s got more symptoms and is a cancer survivor. We’re praying
Your calculations are based on the self-reporting by communist China. Why would you believe them?
Are you that dense? These are 100% US numbers.
Dan Bongino had a doctor on his show late last week who noted that the infection rate on a cruise ship was significantly lower than expected. So, I think you’re on to something.
But you cannot control the population with seasonal flu - you can only restrict the gathering of patriots in large numbers and destroy our great economy with the new, improved flu...
Lol...bring it.
Bingo.
I think the missing part of the story is that a segment of society (the pack-a-day smoker, the asthma folks, the COPD crowd, the weakened immune system individuals) are the ones who will require a massive amount of hospital care to survive, and the system (doesn’t matter which country you talk about) isn’t developed enough to handle a huge infected crowd showing up in a short period of time (say 90 days). The rest of us (probably 94-percent of society) will just consider it a serious bout of the flu and spend a week at home recovering.
Even if this is a nothing-burger, (it may or may not be), they will (and are) make it so it's a devastating one.
Can you start to see how this can all unwind? The economy, our Constitutional rights?
Don't panic, but quietly "improve your position", feel out the trusted patriots from those that would knife you for a roll of TP. And keep quiet about it.
Good morning my friend. Thank you for wading into the breach. Your numbers offer a rational comparison and apples to apples but I assure you the the doom squad has already been out.
I was up at 530 EDT getting ready to go take care of patients.
As the day progresses i will add my daily ribbon winners for fearper of the day
Good luck to you. Rational analysis will prevail.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the outbreak will get worse and warned the U.S. must take serious mitigation efforts.
Can you not do simple math? You uneducated Dolt. He took the American numbers of deaths divided by positive cases and compare it to the influenza deaths divided by positive cases. Are you an idiot or just another fear monger.
You are embarrassing yourself without even realizing it. You obvious can’t read. The 1.9% is US (United States) CONFIRMED CASES.
“The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.”
What part of that includes China?
Here come the hockey stick graphs and we are all gonna get chin_virus and turn into stone and then die.
I am of the opinion that this virus has been in the US for a while in fact I had a real bad respiratory issue in January/February which lasted a month. I will never know what it was, but as a 56 year old guy, I was able to get over it. This mass hysteria cannot be explained except we are all being played.
Explain how your 1.9% calculation for CV-19 makes seasonal flu more lethal.
A cough virus that affects 80 year old lifetime smokers and you rely on conspiracy. Nice.
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