Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu

hopkinsmedicine ^ | 2/28/20 | Lisa Lockerd Maragakis, M.D., M.P.H.

[DannyTN]

No doubt if CV hangs around for a decade, it’s mortality rate will drop. But this year it’s going to be bad, unless we slow down the spread, until either medicines or vaccines are available or the warmer weather stops it.

It spread pretty fast in Singapore with 80% weather, but it looks like they did manage to get control of it. So maybe weather helps.

[Drago]

I am doing my own “Drago Mortality Rate” calculation: as of today 5512 cases outside of China & Iran (I don’t trust their #’s for my calculation)...51 deaths among those 5500 for a simplified/non-scientific “Drago Mort. Rate” of 0.93%. For common flu in the USA 2017-2018 was a “bad flu season” and had about 44,802,000 cases with 61,000 fatalities for a “Drago Mort. Rate” of 0.14% so COVID-19 appears to be about 6.6x as deadly as regular flu right now (rate is going down as more cases are treated by 1st world medicine). I heard that “SARS-CoV-2” (that is the virus name...the disease is “COVID-19”) is “poo transmissible”, but haven’t done any research into it. Now that coronavirus is “community spreading” in the USA, better #’s on mortality rate, “R0” (contagiousness), and “seriousness” will become available as the case count in the US rises (for “seriousness” I have seen data that COVID-19 requires hospitalization and intubation at a higher rate than regular flu). The big problem with official #’s now is that the US isn’t testing very much at all...the South Koreans are doing thousands of tests and the USA is in the low hundreds. Could be more widespread in the USA, but being masked as “reg. flu”.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/massive-coronavirus-testing-program-south-korea-underscores-nimble/story?id=69226222

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

[Jane Long]

For sure babies and toddlers :)

I don’t frequent those cities, but I’ve visited in the past few years.

Also, when was the last time you saw medical personnel, all across the country, dress out in full PPE, for “just the flu”?

[TigersEye]

No doubt if CV hangs around for a decade, it’s mortality rate will drop.

Maybe maybe not. My point was that current data on CV is completely unreliable. For starters it began in China where, despite Dem candidate claims, their healthcare system isn't that good. And secondly, it began there so there was absolutely no warning and no chance to prepare.

[TigersEye]

Also, when was the last time you saw medical personnel, all across the country, dress out in full PPE, for “just the flu”?

That would be never. Could be because I've been to the hospital twice a year for the last three years ... to see an eye doctor. Didn't see much of the other personnel. Prior to that I've never been to one.

Maybe the flu vaccine has something to do with med personnel not dressing out in full PPE. Maybe it's because the flu is a known factor. Maybe it's because we accept 14k - 61k deaths per year in the U.S. from the flu without batting an eye.

[NoLibZone]

The outbreak teaches how important keeping the Government out of health care is.

Watch how may deaths occur here vs in nations with government run health care.

[RaceBannon]

what is the rate of infection of the flu vs covid-19?

the only important number here to me, right away, to ask them...

[calenel]

Flu is endemic, with a pool of hosts to carry it from year to year.

Wuhanic virus is not, and we should do our best to keep it that way.

And since we have not tested more than 500 people in the US, we don’t actually know if any of those pneumonia deaths that tested negative for the flu were Wuhanic virus or not.

Trump acted early enough to slow down the virus in the USA. Earlier than any other world leader. The Dems bashed him for it, now they say it wasn’t enough. Downplaying this before we have actual testing going on and some real stats only helps the Dems. If the tests say there are no cases - “Yay! Trump saved us again!” If there are cases, “See what Democrat obstruction and open border policies has done?” But doing nothing is an invitation to disaster if this thing gets going in the USA. Bernie will ride that right to the White House.

[calenel]

“what is the rate of infection of the flu vs covid-19?”

Flu: R0 of 1.3, well documented official number.

Covid-19: estimated to be about 6. Many higher and lower estimates, some clearly ridiculous, but the consensus is that it is significantly more contagious than the flu.

[Mount Athos]

Isn’t it amazing how this article and none of the comments on this thread address the central issue of virus mutation?

A similar coronavirus in 2002 in southern China mutated, becoming more deadly but also more difficult to transmit.
So it petered out. It could have mutated differently.

Why are people making the assumption it won’t mutate?

OK, the big possibility is that it will simply peter out and not amount to anything special. But there is that rare chance it will mutate into something bad.

So it’s wrong to think it will likely tens of millions, and wrong to think it can’t do so.

[abigkahuna]

There is a cure undergoing Phase III trials as we speak and those should be completed shortly...Remdesivitar (sic) by Gilead. Already proven safe for humans during Phase I and II trials during the Ebola days. FDA approval for use with coronavirus is expected to be fast tracked by the FDA.

Once a cure is available, anxiety should be alleviated immensely. Not a vaccine, but a cure that works.

[WildHighlander57]

abigkahuna wrote:

“There is a cure undergoing Phase III trials as we speak and those should be completed shortly...Remdesivitar (sic) by Gilead. Already proven safe for humans during Phase I and II trials during the Ebola days. FDA approval for use with coronavirus is expected to be fast tracked by the FDA.

Once a cure is available, anxiety should be alleviated immensely. Not a vaccine, but a cure that works.”

Thanks for this information!

[momincombatboots]

They can include anything they want. Maybe they want to target a certain group of people with a few cells that attach to neurons and replicate to produce harmful memory loss unheard of in generations before.

[null and void]

The math on the "Drago Mort. Rate" counts everyone who is still sick as a survivor, some percentage of them will complete the disease process by recovering, some by dying.

Try the math using everyone who has completed the disease process as the denominator.

World wide, you'll get a mortality rate of people who have been through the full disease process of about 7%.

Recognize that this is partially based of ChiCom lies uh, data. They probably downplayed all the numbers. If they are all 1/10th the actual data, the lies will more or less cancel each other out.

Also as the disease spreads the survival rate of those who have bee through the full disease process climbs Early data was about 50%, now its about 93%

Why? Who knows? Better treatment, healthier population? Weaker mutations?

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[null and void]

I covered mutation in my speculation as to why a lower percentage of people are dying now that early on, see above.

[thinden]

facts on FLU vs COVID19 kinda hard for MSM/DEMS to swallow?

[sauropod]

.

[RonnG]

“Trump gave us the first instalment when he cut off air travel from China. Voters now want a second instalment. He would be wise to give it to them.”

So far, there are over 15 people in the US with the CV with no deaths. I would wait until the death toll spikes to 1 or 2 before more drastic measures are taken like quarantines, school closings and such

[ActresponsiblyinVA]

Someone needs to keep track of the US CItizens killed by COVID-19, the flu and illegal immigrants

[DoodleDawg]

COVID-19: Approximately 2,871 deaths reported worldwide; 0 deaths in the U.S., as of Feb. 28, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

That's 646,000 deaths in approximately 1 billion cases of flu worldwide. As opposed to 2,900 deaths in approximately 100,000 cases of COVID-19. You don't see a difference in that?