The largest failure is of course Ukraine.
Moscow wants them to remain in essentially a common trade union with Russia along with Belarus and as many of the other FSU states in Southeast Europe that it can convince...either by carrot or stick.
But the carrot of EU access is irresistable and they don’t care about ending up being rump states. They just want into the Western gang, and not be regarded as West Asians again.
The Russians actually feel the same way, they just know it will be next to impossible for them to compete on a products basis. So selling natural resources - oil and gas of course, but also ag products - is the only thing they got. If they want to sell manufactured goods, they need a preferred market: that’s where Ukraine, Belarus and the others come in.
Except they don’t want to. Post Putin Russia needs to figure out a compromise on that. And as far as captive markets in the old “-stans”, who cares? They don’t. They have as much in common with them as we do with Mexico. Actually even less. So those guys end up with some minor cooperative ventures and...China. Racially and ethnically that’s all that makes sense now.
Russia is a European nation cut off from Europe by the insanity of Communism which put them a generation behind their relatives just to the West. Their pride may never let them think of themselves as just another European nation, they still think they’re No. 1 in the neighborhood. But having a third world economic profile - raw materials and ag - really doesn’t lead to that.
2-3 generations.
Russia, despite it’s size is in a precarious position. If Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe close their borders with Russia, Russians go no where.
That you wrote was true in 1997. Not so much today. Also Russian-led trade agreements are offering much better conditions for participants in terms of developing their national economies.
And the Russians aren’t meddling with domestic politics of their partners near as much as EU does.
With EU minor members get handouts and Germany gets their markets. It ends up with deindustrialization of these nations. The free trade is mostly a pie in the sky since most local businesses unable to get around the red tape to be eligible.
Also there is a free travel included meaning that not only the jobs are going to Germany but the productive populations are following.