Posted on 04/15/2019 4:34:55 PM PDT by CondoleezzaProtege
– Since 1991, Moscow has sought to retain its influence and control in the post-Soviet space at a lower cost than it paid in Soviet times, thus leaving the non-Russian countries around it in worse shape than they would otherwise be and rapidly leading ever more of them to seek ties with other centers of power, Anton Yevstratov says.
That approach which relies on the continuation of past ties, the use of frozen conflicts, and the absence of outside influence has worked well in some places; but it is failing in many and will fail in more, not because these countries are Russophobic, as Moscow likes to suggest, but simply because generational change and national needs make that inevitable.
Yevstratov says that Moscow’s neo-colonialism rests on three things: the inability of many of the former republics to separate their economies from Russia at least in the short term, Moscow’s ability to exploit conflicts on their territories and serve as an arbiter, and most important elites who grew up in Soviet times and have no other model of behavior.
Officials in Moscow have assumed that this situation can continue indefinitely, he says; but “in recent years, the paradigm is changing. Post-Soviet societies and countries are changing. Their leadership is changing. In some places, such changes are occurring by a natural and evolutionary path … in others there are revolutions.”
Because of its aggressive rhetoric and sometimes its aggressive actions, however, “Russia itself is pushing away the post-Soviet republics and literally throwing them into the embrace of its geopolitical opponents,” the analyst says. Only if Moscow changes course in its work with these countries can it hope to have influence – and influence based on an entirely new set of arrangements.
(Excerpt) Read more at windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com ...
The largest failure is of course Ukraine.
Moscow wants them to remain in essentially a common trade union with Russia along with Belarus and as many of the other FSU states in Southeast Europe that it can convince...either by carrot or stick.
But the carrot of EU access is irresistable and they don’t care about ending up being rump states. They just want into the Western gang, and not be regarded as West Asians again.
The Russians actually feel the same way, they just know it will be next to impossible for them to compete on a products basis. So selling natural resources - oil and gas of course, but also ag products - is the only thing they got. If they want to sell manufactured goods, they need a preferred market: that’s where Ukraine, Belarus and the others come in.
Except they don’t want to. Post Putin Russia needs to figure out a compromise on that. And as far as captive markets in the old “-stans”, who cares? They don’t. They have as much in common with them as we do with Mexico. Actually even less. So those guys end up with some minor cooperative ventures and...China. Racially and ethnically that’s all that makes sense now.
Russia is a European nation cut off from Europe by the insanity of Communism which put them a generation behind their relatives just to the West. Their pride may never let them think of themselves as just another European nation, they still think they’re No. 1 in the neighborhood. But having a third world economic profile - raw materials and ag - really doesn’t lead to that.
2-3 generations.
Russia, despite it’s size is in a precarious position. If Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe close their borders with Russia, Russians go no where.
That you wrote was true in 1997. Not so much today. Also Russian-led trade agreements are offering much better conditions for participants in terms of developing their national economies.
And the Russians aren’t meddling with domestic politics of their partners near as much as EU does.
With EU minor members get handouts and Germany gets their markets. It ends up with deindustrialization of these nations. The free trade is mostly a pie in the sky since most local businesses unable to get around the red tape to be eligible.
Also there is a free travel included meaning that not only the jobs are going to Germany but the productive populations are following.
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