Posted on 07/20/2018 6:26:42 AM PDT by CondoleezzaProtege
South Korean President Moon Jae-in delivered an historic address at the Russian State Duma. During his address, Moon called for a sweeping expansion of economic ties with Russia and articulated his vision for trilateral cooperation between South Korea, North Korea, and Russia on the preservation of security in Northeast Asia.
While the implications of Moon’s diplomatic outreach to Russia on the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline links and railways across the Korean Peninsula were the most widely discussed consequences of Moon’s trip to Russia, the strengthening rapprochement between South Korea and Russia also has far-reaching consequences for regional diplomacy.
First, a strengthened Russia-South Korea relationship increases the likelihood of expanded cooperation between Moscow and Seoul on the issue of denuclearizing North Korea.
Second, Russia views an improved relationship with South Korea as a major step towards achieving its goal of becoming a “third partner” in trade and security relations with the Asia-Pacific region.
Russia has reached out to U.S. partners in region to sell itself as neutral alternative economic and security partner.
Japan could be tempted to ease tensions with Moscow over the Kuril Islands, and compete directly with South Korea and China for economic deals with Russia.
Third, the establishment of strengthened diplomatic relations between Russia and South Korea increases the prospect of constructive U.S.-Russia cooperation on Asia-Pacific security. Trump has previously stated that Russia could help the United States resolve the North Korea crisis.
It would highlight Russia’s international status in a region that has been typically viewed as lying within the spheres of influence of China and the United States.
Moon’s outreach to Putin could have profound implications for the diplomatic balance in Northeast Asia. Moscow’s case for being a world power will strengthen considerably in the years to come.
(Excerpt) Read more at thediplomat.com ...
Does anybody really think this wasn’t coordinated with the White House and State Dept in advance?
How the hell are the Deep State operatives supposed to make money if Trump keeps pushing various countries toward peace? The DS needs WW3. It’s a major money maker.
Confused as to how this article is calling for WWIII? It does not predict that at all?! It is an objective analysis of the changing economic dynamics of the region with North Korea’s development as a player taken as a given and increased Russia-US cooperation being likely in the future.
Everybody knows in the long run, South Korea will be the winner on the peninsula, China knows it, Russia knows it.
The question is how to handle the North Korea problem without things breaking down into chaos.
I think U.S. troops pulling out and the transition towards reunification with North should be overseen by a better leader than President Moon. He is doing great in terms the initial steps...but his left wing ideology and tendency towards appeasing the North can be disconcerting.
Not sure when his term is up, but hopefully there are some solid sound-minded conservatives standing in the wings to take up the mantle in Korea. :)
Moon is a very hard Leftist.
Hopefully both South Korea and Russia will have better leaders in place before reunification process/US troops pullout process accelerates. Would be nice if China had someone better than Xi Jinping too!
Most of us can only guess.
The real question is was this something the WH wanted in the first place, or did they see the writing on the wall and worked to have the best outcome for the US as they could?
“Hopefully both South Korea and Russia will have better leaders in place before reunification process/US troops pullout”
The sooner in years such a pullout would occur, the less likely your hope will be realized, in fact it would be a naive hope if it happens in Trump’s term.
Further out in time, there is no telling how things will work out.
It is even still possible there will be another war, if Kim’s “negotiations” are entirely a ploy expecting goodies that Trump is rightfully not going to deliver.
Good points Wuli.
Trump made sure to stress North Korea in his tweet about Putin summit and as a reason for a second meeting in the WH.
I personally don’t think there will be war. Trump seems pretty determined about that.
Worth noting though that China and Russia just blocked a US resolution at the U.N. banning fuel imports to North Korea.
“I personally don’t think there will be war. Trump seems pretty determined about that.”
It is possible - if “denuclearization” becomes a nothing burger - and then after Trump leaves office, and then how the north sizes up his successor, whomever it is. It would be reasonable to expect the North to return to just keeping the tension at a boil, and waiting, until.........?
“Would be nice if China had someone better than Xi Jinping too”
Again that is naive. In the last party Congress he maneuvered his position so that he has now stepped ino the shoes of Mao, and is likely to still be the leader of China when he dies. He not only has any term limits on his office, neither in adopted party rules and principles or law, but has created new government and party organs that centralizes more authoirity that was done since Mao. The party structure is now his, not a collectives. All his opponents have been retired, sidelined or compromised into serving him. And his chanegs are unchallengable without him agreeing.
Like Erdogan in Turkey, he has used some issue (for him it was “corruption”) as the rationale for changes that in sum eliminated opponents and put more power in his own hands, and unable to be altered without him. A coup in China, even a political one within the party, is as unlikely as a coup in Turkey today.
Right. Well ideally such authoritarian leaders won’t get the final say over the region and won’t benefit...the Soviet Union created the North Korean state, and both China and Russia have sustained it. Why should they get all the perks of its liberation?
“Right. Well ideally such authoritarian leaders won’t get the final say over the region and won’t benefit...the Soviet Union created the North Korean state, and both China and Russia have sustained it. Why should they get all the perks of its liberation?”
The world is not “ideal”, never is, and our policies cannot expect it on a naive hope. I don’t know what “Liberation” of either China or Russia you are expecting and on what reasoned basis you expect it.
Indeed the world is not ideal. But: President Trump is setting things up in a way that’s throwing the future of some regimes in for a loop. Like Iran for example. I can’t imagine that government lasting much longer. Trump’s withdrawal of the nuke deal and cementing of Jerusalem’s status in Israel changed a lot of realities in the region that the Iranian government were banking on. I am sure China was not expecting a trade war!
What I meant regarding North Korea:
The article above describes how Russia will benefit and be more validated as a ‘superpower’ with stronger South Korean ties especially once North Korea opens up. But I don’t think either Russia or China have “earned” their sphere of influence in Asia given their conduct. Especially in propping up the brutal North for so long.
I accept Trumps ambition with North Korea, I do not accept that the North will in the end (a) accept the meaning Trump expects of it, or (b) in the end actually denuclearize itself and (c) will maintain a beligerant and threatening stance with South Korea. It is lack of believing Trump, just a lack of agreeing Kim acually wants ANYTHING near what we and South Korea want and need.
Even liberal Americans are sick of pointless wars and Obama got into power promising to reverse GW Bush’s policies only to then continue with the general framework — but pull out of places like Iraq too early, causing the initial mistakes only to amplify in their consequences.
It’s not that America is warmongery that’s the problem. Why not place some blame on rival powers China and Russia for their economic and militaristic posturing?
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