There is no instance of the Russians military countermanding a single order, You mix that nonsense with the Tinanman square in China where the people there were brutally murdered and crushed by a Chinese military doing exactly what they are told to because similar to the Russians, if they don’t they are summarily executed and never seen again. This feel good altruism is very dangerous in dealing with reality. Google that!!
Here is what happened yesterday, The Iranian guard forces shot two demonstrators to death is a city in north east Iran.They brutally and mercilessly killed them. That not only dispersed that crowd but word quickly spread of that possibility any where, When you are demonstrating over price hikes on commodities anyway this chills your fervor for that cause. You actually conclude that the price is a fair price and just stay home. There will be a few more executions today and that will pretty well do it for this round.
I said nothing about Tiananmen Square.
Face it - The Russian military did not fire on their protesters, and the communist regime fell. How do yo explain the fall of communism, despite their military and police state power? Soviet Communism was arguably more powerful, and more brutal/repressive than the current Iranian regime.
It can, and does repeatedly happen in history, that people bravely rise up and overthrow brutal repressive regimes, usually with many more than two people getting shot. They have done so before in Iran as well. Freedom isn’t free. People die in the effort.
Crowds were back out across the country the day after those two were killed. The population outnumbers the total security forces more than 100 to 1. Typically during regime change, a tipping point occurs, where elements of the security forces either stand down (as in Russia), or turn their guns on the old regime (Romania). Humanity has been been down that path countless times. It obviously can happen.
Reports are now on twitter (#Izeh) that the city of Izeh, capital of the Bakhtiari tribe, has fallen to rebel control (reports of ten killed, unknown how many were regime). The regime is reportedly preparing a counter attack with Republican Guards and foreign militia support. Apparently, some members of the local security forces have changed their loyalty to local or tribal authorities, and the officials loyal to the regime have been driven from office and out of town.
The Republican Guards only total about 125,000 (in a country of 80 million), but many of them are specialized rocket or naval forces, and many more are administrative in nature. Their few tens of thousands of combat troops have mainly been converted from domestic security roles to expeditionary forces to fight in Iraq, Yemen and Syria - where many are deployed.
90,000 Basiji (like riot police) are on the payroll to support the Republican Guards in domestic security. Around 300,000 reserve Basiji report to various Government and Civil organizations, but they have a spotty record of effectively mustering when called.
Foreign Shi’ite militias total several tens of thousands across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, who might be called in to quell rebellion (some are reportedly being sent to Izeh). they are real trigger pullers. Houthis in Yemen have no realistic possibility of reinforcing the Iranian regime.
The regular Army has over 300,000 personnel, but is not structured or routinely tasked for domestic security missions. In 2009, they refused to fire on protesters.
The regime has limited capability to handle multiple situations like Izeh simultaneously, especially while also trying to control demonstrations across dozens of cities.