Reports are now on twitter (#Izeh) that the city of Izeh, capital of the Bakhtiari tribe, has fallen to rebel control (reports of ten killed, unknown how many were regime). The regime is reportedly preparing a counter attack with Republican Guards and foreign militia support. Apparently, some members of the local security forces have changed their loyalty to local or tribal authorities, and the officials loyal to the regime have been driven from office and out of town.
The Republican Guards only total about 125,000 (in a country of 80 million), but many of them are specialized rocket or naval forces, and many more are administrative in nature. Their few tens of thousands of combat troops have mainly been converted from domestic security roles to expeditionary forces to fight in Iraq, Yemen and Syria - where many are deployed.
90,000 Basiji (like riot police) are on the payroll to support the Republican Guards in domestic security. Around 300,000 reserve Basiji report to various Government and Civil organizations, but they have a spotty record of effectively mustering when called.
Foreign Shi’ite militias total several tens of thousands across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, who might be called in to quell rebellion (some are reportedly being sent to Izeh). they are real trigger pullers. Houthis in Yemen have no realistic possibility of reinforcing the Iranian regime.
The regular Army has over 300,000 personnel, but is not structured or routinely tasked for domestic security missions. In 2009, they refused to fire on protesters.
The regime has limited capability to handle multiple situations like Izeh simultaneously, especially while also trying to control demonstrations across dozens of cities.
I see no source on this story. Is it DEBKA? I dont believe any of it. We need the source on stories or they are considered just made up .