Posted on 04/18/2017 11:58:14 AM PDT by ckinv368
North Korea, the troglodyte equivalent of a nation state run by a 33 year-old dictator with a penchant for bad haircuts and worse suits, has been an international pariah for decades. Since the fall of the Soviet Bloc in 1991, and a devastating famine between 1995 and 1998, its actions have become more desperate and dangerous. In a never-ending quest for food and fuel aid, it has acted the part of a petulant child, committing increasingly-hostile military provocations which only temporarily diminish when someone provides a handout.
The US has tried time-and-again to negotiate with North Korea, to no avail. In 1994, former President Jimmy Carter believed he set Kim Il-sung straight. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright drank wine and held talks with Kim Jong Il in 2000. She posed for photos, paid her respects at the tomb of Kim Il-sung, visited schools, and declared of her trip that “I danced with the children and I’m very satisfied.” The trip produced no lasting results, other than giving North Korea a propaganda victory. There have been two-party talks, six-party talks, and five-party talks that resulted from North Korea walking out of the six-party talks. Jimmy Carter traveled back to the country to offer his respect to the “Supreme Leader,” Bill Clinton participated in lengthy dinners and photo ops, and Dennis Rodman offered to teach Kim Jong-un how to rebound in an episode of ill-planned basketball diplomacy. All of these efforts have been fruitless. Through it all, North Korea continued developing nuclear weaponry, while the US allowed it to repatriate tens of millions of dollars in foreign currency reserves.
To date, US containment efforts have been limited to diplomacy. With an estimated 1.2 million landmines littering the demilitarized zone, and 13,000 North Korean artillery pieces, hundreds of 240mm rockets and roughly 300 ballistic missiles pointed directly at Seoul—a mere 35 miles from the DMZ—a military option is not particularly feasible.
This ongoing threat to Seoul has provided North Korea an international hall-pass, allowing it to flex its military might with seeming impunity. When a North Korean submarine sank a South Korean warship in 2010, killing 46 sailors, South Korea refused to respond militarily. North Korean missile and nuclear testing has continued unabated as well. It conducted five nuclear tests in the last ten years, and twenty-six missile tests in 2016 alone, yet faced few meaningful international sanctions. This is due, in part, to the influence held by its ally China and China’s efforts to block a meaningful sanctions regime within the United Nations.
Now, North Korea seeks to actively test the mettle of President Trump. Since January, North Korea has intensified its rhetoric, and made overt threats against US interests at home and abroad. The Trump Administration has refused to back down, insisting that “North Korea is looking for trouble,” that “all options are on the table,” and that the US “will solve the problem without” China if it has to. Trump recently sent an aircraft carrier, six cruisers and destroyers, and at least one nuclear submarine to patrol off the coast of North Korea, and reiterated his commitment to the installation of an advanced missile defense system to protect South Korea and Japan from North Korean aggression. Tough talk, rather than weak conciliations, is the right way forward with North Korea. But talk alone will not solve the problem.
It appears Trump realizes there can be no lasting solution to the North Korean problem without enlisting the help of China, North Korea’s strongest ally and largest trading partner. But, up until now, China has been a largely unwilling participant in solving the North Korean calculus. With China enjoying years of unfettered 7% GDP growth fueled by speculation and currency manipulation, it had little reason to cooperate with US efforts to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambition. Now, thanks to years of economic overreaching by China, the Trump Administration has a historic opportunity to pivot China away from unwavering support of North Korea. Trump said he will do just that—using a business deal as impetus to entice China into crafting a North Korean solution.
During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit, President Trump offered friendly trade terms in exchange for China’s assistance with North Korea. Conversely, the threat was that the US wouldn’t otherwise allow the outsized trade deficit between the two countries to continue. Early signs are that China is amenable to negotiate. While China previously agreed to stop purchasing over $1 billion per year in coal from North Korea, China is now enforcing this ban by re-loading North Korean coal ships and sending them back to North Korea. State-controlled Chinese media has recently called for restrictions on the sale of oil to North Korea, and even published editorials critical of Kim Jong-un’s regime. And, some outlets are reporting that China has stationed an additional 150,000 troops on its border with North Korea. While the Wall Street Journal correctly notes that China “is expert at offering cosmetic concessions while adhering to what it considers its long-term national interests,” Trump’s trade concessions likely are in China’s long-term national interest.
At least for now, efforts to limit North Korean aggression seem to be trending positively. North Korea failed to conduct a widely-anticipated nuclear test to coincide with its annual Day of the Sun celebrations. While it introduced a “new” rocket (which may have been a fake), and attempted to test-launch a missile that immediately exploded (possibly due to US cyber sabotage), these acts represent a de-escalation of sorts. The situation is far from normalized, and the risk from North Korea remains extremely high. But, using Chinese influence to force North Korean moderation is a promising first step. President Trump seems to understand that he must make China a partner before regional stability can be achieved. This is where a transactional Presidency may provide lasting dividends. Let’s hope President Trump can make a deal of a lifetime that solves the North Korea problem for years to come.
For similar commentary, please visit: www.cameronkinvig.com
“a military option is not particularly feasible. “
I’m not so sure about that. once Fat Kim is gone, how hard are the holdouts going to fight?
Bookmark
Someone should tell “Fat Kim” that he will attract more
flies with honey than he will with vinegar!
I want the flies to be attracted to Fat Boy’s bloated corpse.
I agree, it wouldn’t be very hard to take Kim out. It’s just that in the interim a few thousand shells/missiles will probably hit Seoul. I don’t believe the “hype” that Seoul would be reduced to flaming rubble in 1/2 an hour of bombardment, but it would certainly cause billions in property damage and it’s likely that thousands of civilians would lose their lives.
bkmk
Not feasible because of the 30 million dead in Soul when 30,000 arty tubes open up.
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