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2016 NFL Conference Championship Weekend - Predictions & Pass-Rush Match-Up Analysis
Sons of Constitutional Liberty (Sports Page) ^ | 1/22/17 | SCL

Posted on 01/22/2017 10:05:11 AM PST by Jim W N

Rankings are from the final regular season stats. Numbers represent overall and specific NFL rankings by points except pass/run ranked by yardage. Depending on who has the ball, compare offense/defense strengths in pass/run yardage to anticipate best game plan.

Sunday, Jan 22, 1:05 PM MT FOX
#8 Green Bay at #2 Atlanta

Atlanta Offense #1:...1 Pass 5 Run
GB Defense #21:.....32 Pass 14 Run

GB Offense #4:..........15 Pass 7 Run
Atlanta Defense #27:...11 Pass 26 Run

We’ve got the #1 and # 4 best offenses in the NFL against the #21 and #27 defenses. Although I prefer a better offense/defense match-up than that, Rogers’ cool presence and incredible performance is compelling and you’ve gotta like the guy. This will be a shoot-out. Some say the winner will be whoever has the ball last. Could be.

When Atlanta has the ball: Atlanta’s top passing offense will go against the worst pass defense in the NFL. Atlanta has a strong running game but Atlanta should mostly pass which I think they usually do anyway. I’ll be surprised if Atlanta doesn’t score every time they have the ball.

When GB has the ball: Roger’s incredible second-half streak makes the season-long #15 pass ranking too low. Atlanta has a respectable #11 pass defense, but Rogers has been shredding good defenses pretty much every week. GB also has a strong running game which should do well against Atlanta’s #26 run defense.

Will Ryan, Kyle Shanahan – Atlanta’s offensive coordinator extraordinaire, and Atlanta’s top offense in the NFL be able to outscore the seemingly unstoppable One-Man Wrecking Crew, Rogers? Will the last one with the ball win? It may come down to turnovers or maybe even special teams – who has the ball more often and in better field position. Atlanta looks like it has a better chance of intercepting Rogers than GB intercepting Ryan. Wonder how much scoring will happen in the last two minutes. Projected Winner: Atlanta.

….

Sunday, Jan 22, 4:49 PM MT CBS
#5 Pittsburgh vs. #1 New England

NE Offense #3:................3 Pass 25 Run
Pittsburgh Defense #10:...15 Pass 19 Run

Pittsburgh Offense #10:...13 Pass 8 Run
NE Defense #1:...............8 Pass 8 Run

NE is ranked #1 in the NFL (net points). They do it or close to it every year. Not sure how. Brady is a great QB and cool under pressure with great receivers. Coach Belichick is enigmatic. Anyway, the Patriots obviously have a great organization and look unstoppable this year – again.

When NE has the ball: Don’t really see how Pittsburgh’s so-so defense can stop NE’s top-tier passing game though they should slow down NE’s running game. NE should strike quickly and often.

When Pittsburgh has the ball: Pittsburgh has a respectable running game and Roethlisberger is still dangerous. But they are going against the best defense (points) in the NFL. They’ll score but will also probably turn the ball over.

This could also turn into a shoot-out of sorts between Brady and Roethlisberger but with a probable positive turnover differential and all their weapons, NE should win going away. Projected Winner: New England.


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What with all the inauguration and FR going down hard (but not destroyed), thought I might re-post this.
1 posted on 01/22/2017 10:05:11 AM PST by Jim W N
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To: alfa6; Allegra; atc23; Az Joe; Bender2; big'ol_freeper; Buckeye McFrog; Cletus.D.Yokel; ColdOne; ...

Hope you don’t mind but I figured you’d want to see this so I’ve worked up a ping list for this Prediction & Analysis sheet which comes out twice a year during in the NFL & MLB playoffs.

Lemme know if you want off.


2 posted on 01/22/2017 10:08:11 AM PST by Jim W N
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To: Jim 0216

Atlanta Wins

New England Wins


3 posted on 01/22/2017 10:08:35 AM PST by Enlightened1
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To: Jim 0216

I appreciate being on the list.


4 posted on 01/22/2017 10:09:45 AM PST by Enterprise ("Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." Voltaire)
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To: Jim 0216

Count me in!!


5 posted on 01/22/2017 10:11:15 AM PST by hsmomx3 (Love my Steelers!!)
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To: Jim 0216

I would like to see GB v. Pittsburgh in the Superbowl but I cannot see Pittsburg getting past NE today. I think it is a real toss up in the NFC.


6 posted on 01/22/2017 10:13:58 AM PST by pinkandgreenmom
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To: Jim 0216

yes


7 posted on 01/22/2017 10:14:14 AM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Jim 0216

I’m pulling for the Falcons......but they almost always manage to disappoint.....Here’s hoping this year is different!


8 posted on 01/22/2017 10:14:52 AM PST by nevergore
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To: pinkandgreenmom

On paper, Atlanta destroys Green Bay.

But that does not take into account the wildcard of Aaron Rogers. What he has done this year boggles the mind.

He has eyes in the back of his head.


9 posted on 01/22/2017 10:16:13 AM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Enlightened1

Homer!


10 posted on 01/22/2017 10:18:55 AM PST by xp38
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To: Jim 0216

Great!

For years I have been a Packer backer, but I also like NE (it was a long road for me to get there) and have also been a long-time Pittsburgh fan.

I guess it is great my favorite 3 teams are in the hunt and chances are very good 2 of the will be playing for the SB but it makes picking a “favorite” in some games hard.

I like having a side to root for. Just the way I like to watch.

Prediction:

NE/GB in SB.

Rodgers vs. Brady — destined to go down as the greatest matchup in history.


11 posted on 01/22/2017 10:21:11 AM PST by freedumb2003 (obozo: not just the worst president in American history - worst *American* in American history (turf)
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To: pinkandgreenmom

Depends on which Big Ben shows up.On a good day, I wouldn’t bet againt him.


12 posted on 01/22/2017 10:39:00 AM PST by oldsicilian
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To: Jim 0216
Sounds like that was written by the same odds makers that predicted a hillary win.
13 posted on 01/22/2017 10:42:24 AM PST by SunTzuWu
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To: Enlightened1
Atlanta Wins. New England Wins.

I suspect you are right, but I am a native Cheesehead (and primarily a Bears fan). I am hoping for GB vs. NE in the SB.

14 posted on 01/22/2017 10:43:08 AM PST by neocon1984
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To: Jim 0216
I think it's important for anyone who hates the Patriots to remember that Bill and Tom, perhaps not totally knowingly, publicly endorsed Trump (and supported him throughout) just before the election. I see a lot of the hatred for Bill and Tom being similar to a lot of the silly hatred for Trump - emotional and not rational. They win, they are successful, they are disciplined and in their own way they are humble - even Trump. (Real humility is expressed by knowing that without discipline and hard work, even the greatest of natural talent - whether you think it comes from yourself of God - is zero, like another pure propaganda talent no substance zero we know.

So all I am getting at is that if you hate the Patriot's you must be a liberal Obama mom jeans girl and maybe you should have been out there with the silly pink pussy protesters whining yesterday, also you look like Michael Moore in mom jeans.

15 posted on 01/22/2017 10:44:00 AM PST by tinyowl (A is A)
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To: tinyowl

>I think it’s important for anyone who hates the Patriots to remember that Bill and Tom, perhaps not totally knowingly, publicly endorsed Trump (and supported him throughout) just before the election. I see a lot of the hatred for Bill and Tom being similar to a lot of the silly hatred for Trump - emotional and not rational. They win, they are successful, they are disciplined and in their own way they are humble - even Trump. (Real humility is expressed by knowing that without discipline and hard work, even the greatest of natural talent - whether you think it comes from yourself of God - is zero, like another pure propaganda talent no substance zero we know.

This is exactly the reason I support the Pats and the fact that any group the MSN targets for harassment must be doing something right. Reward your friends and punish your enemies.


16 posted on 01/22/2017 10:46:15 AM PST by RedWulf (TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP!)
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To: Jim 0216

Thanks for posting this thread again, and again giving me the chance to look stupid in front of God and everbody.

Pittsburgh will run the ball as a default strategy, peppered with long shots to the deep secondary via play action. Also look for west coast offense and short gainers to the backs and TE.

But I don’t think they can shut down the NE offense. Therefore a shootout and very exciting game. NE wins by 4.

GB and Atl will be a shootout that will break the NFL record for points (73) in a Conference Championship. On paper Atl wins. I’ll be greatly disappointed if so.

If Aaron Rogers had a better TEAM, this one would not even be close. GB’s secondary will have a long day. Their only hope is pressure on the Atl QB. Look for GB to blitz early and often. Look for Atl to play a lot of zone and very few blitzes...they have learned by watching the earlier playoff games it’s not worth weakening you coverage to send 1 or two extra guys and not get to Rogers anyway. He’s too elusive.
So they’ll double team everbody.
And Rogers will counter with passes across the middle to the TE and Backs.


17 posted on 01/22/2017 10:51:29 AM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: neocon1984

The home teams usually have the advantage. So that favors both Atlanta and New England.

Atlanta has the following advantages too.

1) Less Injuries

2) The number 1 offense in the NFL. Matt Ryan has all types of weapon both air and ground.

3) They already beat Green Bay earlier this year.

4) This is the very last NFL game in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons want to end it with a win.


18 posted on 01/22/2017 10:54:13 AM PST by Enlightened1
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To: Jim 0216

I really want Atlanta vs. Stillers...fun!


19 posted on 01/22/2017 10:59:25 AM PST by GRRRRR (Make America Greater Than Ever Before!)
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To: tinyowl

Well, I like your first paragraph and wouldn’t jump to the conclusions of the second.

You’ve got to admire the Patriots organization with their perennially great teams and I must conclude with you that for whatever reason, it is usually envy that causes this hatred.

The Trump hatred is as irrational as the reasons I heard (and didn’t hear) for people voting for Obama.


20 posted on 01/22/2017 11:06:37 AM PST by Jim W N
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